Category: Basketball
NCAA Picks
So primarily because it is a football Sunday I forgot to post my NCAA picks. I am going to post what I had primarily so that I have a written record of it.
Florida International (+14) @ Boston College
Manhattan (+17) @ Louisville
Milwaukee @ South Carolina (-5)
Oakland @ LA Lafayette (+4)
Tennessee-Martin (+27) @ Cincinnati
UC-Riverside (+10.5) @ Illinois-Chicago
Again, just looking at my picks I clearly am not giving dogs their due, at least in relation to Vegas. And the survey says…4-1-1. 4-7 record the first 2 days puts me at 8-8-1.
NCAA Picks
Rankings, momentum, recruiting classes, new coaches. These are all super things that people can look to to try to gauge the relative strengths of a team as a new season starts. But is there honestly a better determinant in figuring out just where a team lies in the pecking order, than by asking a team one simple question?
Coach : Well, we are really fired up about our team this year. We have some strong guys coming back from last year, combined with a new crop that we are just all kinds of excited about. We are confident in our abilities heading into this year.
Reporter : That’s great, coach. Now, I’m sorry, I just don’t have the paperwork in front of me. Do you open at home, or on the road this year?
That’s what it really boils down to. Of the 18 games pinnacle has lines up for today so far, exactly 3 of the teams are road favorites. This is a little misleading since it’s college bball there are mini tourneys going on where no one is technically home, but you get the point.
Went 4-6 yesterday on picks. Let’s see what I like today…
Portland (+15.5) @ Ohio
I am trying a new technique with the early season so far, which obviously was decidedly mediocre last night. But the point is that of the 18 games this is the only one that fits. If pinnacle posts some more lines I’ll have more to play with, we’ll see.
NCAA BBall
College Bball! No matter where you live, if you follow gambling lines there are always a change of seasons. College basketball is the truest gambling winter sport if you think about it. Played from mid-November til around April 1. Here’s what I have for today…
Bryant (+33.5) @ Indiana
Denver (+3.5) @ Iona
Georgia St @ Duke (-20.5)
Maryland (+11.5) @ Kentucky
Mississippi St @ Troy (+5.5)
North Dakota (+20.5) @ Kansas St
Southern Utah (+24) @ Gonzaga
Towson @ Charleston (+16)
UC Riverside (+18) @ Depaul
UC Santa Barbara @ LSU (-8)
Scrutinizing my own picks it looks like I do not have a healthy respect for college bball faves at the moment. See how things play out.
Coach Call-Outs
Refers to the Head Coach of a team reaming his players out publicly. Bill Self does this last night after Kansas struggles to beat Long Beach St by 8 at home. Self slams his team (primarily the guard play) for their inability to control the ball. How his college-aged players react to being blasted out in the open in their upcoming game against No. 2 Ohio State is of interest here.
“If we handle the ball like that, (Ohio State) can pick the score,” Self said. “Let’s just call it like it is. They will pick the score in our own building if we handle the ball like that…It will be a jailbreak if we turn the ball over against Ohio State. They won’t just be running out and scoring two points. They will be making plays that are ESPN top-10 plays.” Quote ESPN college basketball blog.
There is no line yet.
UPDATE
Line: Ohio St (-3) @ Kansas. I know nothing about college basketball at this moment in 2011, but I will be taking Ohio St here. Let’s see what happens.
Live Series Betting
Hawks -145
Magic +131
How things stand at the moment going to Game 6 in Atlanta. Didn’t catch the line on this going into last night but it couldn’t have been too different than this since Orlando played at home for Game 5. But that means that Atlanta would have only been like a 2:1 favorite to win this series up 3-1? Strikes me as odd, I’m guessing no one and their deceased brother must be putting money on the Hawks in this series.
Recent Bets Made
Going to throw down here a couple of recent bets made…
Champions League Finals – Barca vs Man U – Straight up Bet 50
I need the finals of the Champions League to be Barcelona vs Man U. Any other Finals Match-up (i.e. Man U v Real) and Loubaka wins. The obvious thing to hate about this bet is that it is betting on the expected, and how often does that happen?
Houston Astros worst record in baseball – Laying 3.5:1 – 30 Dollar Bet
This is the bet that refused to die. Bet was only consummated after Houston had its only (still the case!) winning streak of the season, two in a row against the Mets. At this moment Houston is half a game better than Seattle and has the same record as San Diego and the White Sox.
Miami Heat – -10 the pinnacle line on playoff series until eliminated – 20 Dollar Bet each series
Confused by the language on this? Join the club. If there is one activity I enjoy doing, it is drinking while making complicated bets against the Miami Heat. I think this means that if Miami is -120 to win a series, JaPan gets Miami at -130 with me as the house. I’ll clarify, or try to get JaPan to make a miraclecameo to the web site to clear things up.
Program vs. Year (Start of “Units tracking”)
Ohio St – much better team this year. Kentucky – much better program historically. Kentucky getting 6 points. These types of games happen all the time. The question is, does the line get skewed in these instances at all since Kentucky is such a storied program or do things pretty much hold to form. If all the players and coaches stayed the same but the team names switched to Vanderbilt and Wash St, would the line be the same? Going to try to track these as the months go by whenever I spot them. My gut reaction at the moment is to really like Ohio St at -6.
10 Units – Ohio St -6
Holiday Tease
Merry Christmas everybody! Been away for a while as I had some login issues, traveled to Vegas, and was crowned a drinking champion along with Jaguars LB Eric Alexander. I’ve also been logging my bets on:
http://www.twitter.com/seanismoney
Follow me there for daily bets, quips, and intelligent thoughts that are 160 characters or less.
I’ve been doing well this year, batting .695 for the year. I was at .775, but I’ve been miracle covered the last few weeks (including The Debacle on a Thursday Night in Tennessee when the Titans scored a TD with NO time left to lose 30-28…….the last drive of that game deserves a column on its own).
Today’s tease: Miami Heat +7 and the Over for the Dallas/Cardinals game 39. I finally have a reason to root for The Douche 3, as nothing trumps my disdain more for Lebron, than the Lakers.
I also took the Ravens @ -3.5 on Monday; I just don’t see them losing this game with so much on the line. I’ll have more thoughts going into this Sunday about the Packers, and the Jets, who considering how there season has gone along with the foot-fetish news with Rex Ryan, are fans of the agony of victory, and the THRILL of defeat.
On a final note, I got some new games for the XBOX 360 today. Just played some capture the flag with Chad Ochocinco on Call of Duty: Black Ops.
And as you all know, I have a great love for sports games, so I am really excited to start a season in this title below later:
College B’ball
For those of you interested the Matrix site was wrong with its Wash St pick. I opted not to bet with the site before the game. The runners of the site note that they tend to struggle more during the early parts of the year because the formula they use relies heavily on current year game results, and K St had been blown out by Duke previously, which seemed to me would skew things a bit too much. I just stayed away entirely from the game, which K St won by 5. My original plan was to tell VT about the computer’s pick but when I saw the pick, I didn’t. That pick is one that does not sync with VT’s betting style. VT will definitely bet some underdogs but his trademark is to bet favorites who he feels are not getting enough respect. When a top tier is favored by only a few points. Betting Wash St in that game, especially when they are only +2.5, is a complete 180. Portland 58 Montana 54, Marist 80 Niagara 72, Idaho 63 North Dakota 42, Georgia 66 UAB 64, Iona 94 Canisus 85, Villanova 71 St Joseph’s 60 This means that ATS…
- Home teams were 3-3
- Ranked or higher ranked teams were 0-1
- Favorites and underdogs were 3-3
Home, away, favorite, underdog, all end up being at .500 ATS throughout this project, which means Vegas is batting 1.000.
NCAA B’Ball continued
First things first on a few issues. The random Matrix web site hit the money with the Samford pick. Well done! So I won 15 bucks betting against a team that up until yesterday I didn’t know had a Division I program. People might call that a little nutty to be betting money on something like that. And to that I say, please meet my gambling insane roommate who did a three team round-robin bet with the top 3 teams that the web site he never had heard of recommended. And he hit all three.
For those who are interested in riding the hot streak the link is this.
I am slightly confused at the layout, they offer two sets of picks, one using “Decision Tree” model and one using “Similar Games” model and I haven’t looked into things enough to figure exactly what the hell they are talking about but me and V used the Decision Tree model last night, and if you go with that you’ll be taking Wash St tonight. Take that for what it’s worth.
Second, there a chance this site has subscribers. Recently there was a comment from “Paul.” Paul notes…
“I’ve been reading this website for a little while now and I think that (Pat’s) cockiness is getting the better of (him). Maybe (Pat) should take it down a notch.”
That’s right, it’s ffffffffffffFFFFFFFFFFAAAAAAANNNNN MAIL!
How do you even find this site? This is exciting! Paul’s problem with me is based on his idea that through this Project I am trying to show I have more savvy than Vegas. But the real main issue with the College Basketball thing is just trying to keep myself current. If it wasn’t for this thing I wouldn’t know that Marist is just as horrible this year as they were last year, 0 wins in real life and ATS. Let’s see how Vegas did last night…Murray St 74 E Kentucky 72, Arizona St 54 Baylor 68, Rider 88 Manhattan 59, Mercer 67 Belmont 89, UCLA 76 Kansas 77, Oral Roberts 71 Western Illinois 58. Looking back I think I messed up and there wasn’t a spread on the Mercer Belmont game. I’ll update the stats and such if I was wrong. With what we got, ATS…
- Home teams were 2-3
- Ranked or ranked higher teams were 1-1
- Favorites were 3-2
Moving forward…
- Portland (+3.5) @ Montana
- Niagra (-6.5) @ Marist
- North Dakota (+10) @ Idaho
- UAB (+3) @ Georgia
- Canisus (+8.5) @ Iona
- St Joseph’s (+19) @ Villanova
