Category: Basketball
Free Bets are Fun
Tonight the NBA starts, and to get people to actually bet on NBA team futures, Bovada is running a promotion for a free (up to) $20 bet: if the Miami Heat 3-peat (and they are favored to do so at 21/10), everyone gets their cash back.
Here are our choices:
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Brooklyn Nets
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I think the Bulls are always one Derek Rose injury away from disaster. They also have the weakest bench, but I think the strongest coach out of all these teams (including Doc, will get to that in a minute).
Indiana is very young and balanced and talented…..but they really need another superstar scorer/identity to match LeBron and Wade. I like Coach Vogel, he’s ornery and is defensive minded. I just don’t think they have the horses to beat Miami in a 7 game series (they may face them in the ECF again).
The L.A. Clippers got Doc Rivers in the offseason, who as a coach is leaps and bounds over Vinny Del Negro (who has helped build many-a-bankroll). The problem? It probably will take Doc a year to figure out which guys on this current Clipper team are “his” guys as well as who isn’t (he is very intense…and very impatient with young players)…..as well as waiting to sign KG/Pierce in free agency next year. I will say under Doc however, Chris Paul as an MVP candidate at 10-to-1 is not a bad play in any year.
The Spurs are old, and had their run last year. This year for them will be very much like the year the Patriots are having in 2013: lots of injuries to key guys, young players stepping up and getting the job done against teams of similar competition, them getting into the playoffs, and eventually losing to a really good team with younger talent in the 1st or 2nd round.
I forgot the Brooklyn Celtics when I wrote this, but they in my opinion are just too old for a long run. They will probably face the Knicks in the first round, though, and that should be fun.
Oklahoma City is an enigma; they have the worst coach out of this lot and Westbrook isn’t due back until 2014. They just haven’t been the same team since they traded Harden. They do have Durant however, the second best player in the league.
Who did I go with? Houston at 12-to-1. A speculative play, but I really like the way their GM Daryl Morey has built the roster. The lack a true PF, but with Howard in the middle it’s probably better if they played a little smaller to offset the lost offense (plus you can focus on geting Howard the ball in the post). IMO, their bench is the best out of all of these teams. And they maybe one of the teams interested in Rondo once he becomes available at the trading deadline (so will OKC, too).
I am also betting the Miami Heat/Bulls Over tonight (188) and teasing Miami (-5) with the Lakers (+10). Why? Because I hate money, that’s why.
The Heat Is On!
I have had a very profitable NBA season, and I haven’t watched many games. Mostly hunches and assumptions on a) how series dynamics go in the NBA from years of watching it and b) assuming it’s half-rigged……. have helped me win money this postseason. Postseason NBA is so much easier to bet on than regular season NBA!
I liked the Heat at -6 (now -7), the ML at -295 (now -310) and the Heat in a teaser (to -2) and the under at 191.5 (to 195.5)…..until I heard THIS news:
As you can see in the screenshot below, two of tonight’s refs (Ken Mauer and Mike Callahan) have been money for under bettors, while the third (the infamous Joey Crawford) can be qualified as neutral.
Considering *this* news….I now LOVE the Heat tonight. Throw in NBA ratings dynamics, the fact that older teams like the Spurs have trouble in these quick turnaround road games (from years of watching the Celtics, I know…much different when we took the Spurs in Game 1 because they have 5+ days of rest, and are 8-0 in the playoffs when this occurs), and the fact that Joey “The Closer” Crawford is refereeing tonight’s game – book the Heat line, ML, and tease that sucker with the under.
P.S.:
For you baseball bettors looking for value, the Cubs are 69-63 for +15.5 units vs. St Louis since 2005……and 6-3 for +9.6 units as a +195 underdog or greater. As with most rivals; you can throw records out the window.
I joke that Scott Foster will be doing the Heat-Pacers Game 7 tonight…..
…..the same Scott Foster that was a buddy of gambling referee, future potential Executive Game referee Tim Donaghy
….the same Scott Foster who ejected half of the bulls team in Game 2 (which everyone and their mom…..including my mom and I….took the Heat)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8TAxAFOA4c
That guy? He’s working Game 7 tonight. I joked that this would happen to a friend of mine a day earlier and wouldn’t you know it:
Scott Foster will be joined by Mike Callahan and Ken Mauer as officials for Game 7 between the Heat and Pacers.
This is also David Stern’s last hurrah….he’s sending in “Mariano Rivera in the 9th” of refs to close this out (and ensure some ratings share for the NBA, who will lose to the NHL in the ratings wars regardless).
Add to that: 4 players in NBA history average at least 25 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG in potential series-clinching games: Michael Jordan, Larry (The Legend) Bird, Jerry West……and Lebron James.
I’m on a feel-good freeroll….since I hate the Heat so much, if the Heat lose, I do lose cash… but I also win happiness! #winning
Safe to say, we like the Heat -7 and the ML tonight -335. Hell, throw the Heat in a teaser -3 with the over 174.
Free Money Alert: Code Green
I don’t like to recommend any of my hometown teams often for a bet….I actually think it is bad luck.
I’ve even done the most cardinal sin, and once bet against them vs Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 while they were up, 3-to-1, going into Orlando for Game 5 (Orlando -4).
Our friend Francis, while at the Everett de Castle lounge drinking beer and kvetching about the series, blurts out:
“Dude, Perkins has one more tech to go (before an auto game suspension…otherwise known as the “Rasheed Wallace Award”). It’s David Stern. The refs will fuck us over. They’ll get one more game in Boston just for the ratings”.
And I was like……
holy shit……….
FREE MONEY*
The Celtics line now at +2 (was at +1.5 at 6pm) at home against the New York Knickerbockers is a very good play tomorrow.
The Knicks, after being up 3-0 in the best of 7, dominating every second half, and nearly coming back from a 20 point deficit in the 4th game……have looked absolutely atrocious 7 out the last 8 quarters. They are a shooting team; so if they don’t shoot well, they don’t win. That’s the usual stock analysis of a “shooting team”.
They are also NOT a passing team, because some players on their team….well they just refuse to do it. This despite having Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton on the team. They’ll have their moments, but at times, I feel like I’m watching Darts playing NBA Jam with just Melo and JR Smith…….and no one else exists on the Knicks offense. Iman Shumpert’s points only happen when the ball somehow finds the way into his hands by the grace of God.
Did you know that Carmelo Anthony had *2* passes in Game 1? No, not assists (he had only 1 of those..here is wife Lala celebrating that here)……but passes. Carmelo seems like the type of guy who probably doesn’t pass the salt at the dinner table, never mind off of a pick and roll (which Felton has abused with Chandler all series…….the Celtics have no answer for Felton. This may be the reason why the Knicks don’t run it all the time).
You’d think passing the ball against an older, slower team like the Celtics would be a strategy to use?
JR Smith went 0-11 in Game 5 before his first FG. Do you know how hard that is to do?
Throw in the the stupid black suit karma factor (do they wear them again here?), the Celtics’ guile despite playing just a 6.5 man rotation in Game 5, down 11-0 to start the game (40+ min for Pierce/KG is a concern), the fact that NBA Marketing executives have about potentially 5-7% of their yearly sales riding on a Boston/NY Game 7 (esp with THIS storyline), and the fact that a Boston team has kind of done this to a New York team before……
……+2 is a great play.
The final kicker? There have been 11 times an NBA team down 3-0, has won the next two games. Every time that a Game 6 was played at the team’s home court……the home team has won. That goes for teams who were ahead OR behind in the series.
Coincidentally, Houston also is hosting a Game 6 (HOU -1), despite being down 3-0, now 3-2, vs an Westbrook-less OKC.
Mathematically, the streak will have to be broken. It can’t go on for infinity, it’s not a Derby**, and it rarely happens…so odds are 1 out of the two teams Friday will break it (although for those keeping with the math, a parlay with Boston and Houston line is +264).
Why not Houston?
OKC has Durant…and the Knicks do not.
*He was right (and also another reason I bet the C’s in game 6 of that series using this logic….the Lakers had clinched the night before to the Finals, and wouldn’t you know it….two quick fouls on Howard in the 1st quarter of Game 6!).
** Kentucky Derby pick this weekend: Itsmyluckyday (12/1)…just because it looks like an online poker name
NCAA Picks
The entire year, literally the entire damn year, I have thought Michigan has been overrated. And they have consistently proven what a fool I am. Let’s keep it rolling.
THE PICK
Michigan @ Syracuse +1.5 -102 32 Units
SIDE PICK
Michigan @ Syracuse Under 129.5 -108 24 Units
Bracket Substitute
No bracket for me this year, but I did pick a winner in each region:
Midwest: Louisville +120
West: Arizona +1400
South: Kansas +280
East: NC State +1900
These are all on the tiny side just to have some action as the idea of an NCAA tournament existing without gambling is just too ridiculous to consider. Pinnacle has a much better price on NC State at +2400 but otherwise these prices are acceptable. They are also right in line with the ‘true’ odds as best as I can figure, so there’s no great value or anything here. Hedging available on Arizona & NC State if they make week 2.
Also everyone who bet on the Pope got smushed.
NCAA Picks
Had a solid day yesterday. Pretty sure I went 4-1 which should bring things back around .500 for the season. Let’s keep the mo’ going.
Clemson (-9.5) @ Furman *
Manhattan (+8) @ Harvard
Pacific @ Fresno St (-4.5)
South Dakota St @ Hofstra (+13)
Southern @ Wyoming (-19)
UNC-Wilmington (+19.5) @ Ohio
* I did about 10 seconds of research and it seems the rule of thumb for home court advantage in college bball is roughly 4 points. Something to keep in mind moving forward.
NCAA Picks
Five picks today, and only a slight majority of them are underdogs. I will get a hang of this…
Baylor @ Boston College (+12.5)
Dayton @ Colorado (-2.5)
N Colorado @ Cal Poly (-2.5)
NC State @ Penn St (+12)
Wichita St @ W Carolina (+17)
NCAA Picks
Pretty sure I went 1-2 after I wiped the W Virginia silliness off. Let’s see what underdogs I am infatuated with on the 24 hour day…
Florida Atlantic (+6) @ Mississippi St
Georgia St (+13) @ BYU
Texas Southern (+16) @ Northwestern
Of the bunch I really like the Florida Atlantic pick over Miss St. FL Atl may very well win the game. See what happens.
NCAA Picks
4 Plays tonight on the eve of the 24 hour marathon session. Again, mostly dogs.
Fordham (+21.5) @ Pittsburgh
UPenn @ Delaware (-8)
Troy (+16) @ Texas A&M
West Virginia (+10.5) @ Gonzaga (SEE UPDATE…)
Of the 4 I really like the first 2, and especially the Delaware play. With that said I will go 0-2 on those, push on the Troy bet, and cover W Virginia, the one I like the least. God Bless America.
UPDATE
I was strolling around today and I realized I had screwed up my pick on W Virginia. The W Virginia pick is null and void. This only further guarantees not only W Virginia covering but now they may possibly win the game outright. WV, you are welcome.
