Miracle Covers

An Epiphany

While watching the Islanders vomit all over themselves and concede goals at a rate approaching the warmup goalies the past few nights, I started digging into my hockey system which has been excellent up until the last week or so.  The premise for said system was to sort out the games that should in theory be coinflips with plus odds since regular season hockey games have one of the smaller home-field (ice?) advantages of the major sports.  Anything approaching a .500 record with all games in plus odds should be well in the money if executed correctly.

Turns out I screwed up by including non-conference games in the sample.  This eliminates any exceedingly lengthy road trips in terms of days as teams only head to each coast a few times a year.  It also removes the NBA-like problem of having a superior conference face off against a weaker one.  The non-conference games for us this season went 0-4 and over the past few seasons are barely breakeven with a well under .500 record.  I don’t need that kind of losing & variance for such a small return, and it’s not like these plays are filled with lots of quality teams already.

So no more non-conference games for me and that should help clean things up a bit.  Islanders/Ducks, Flyers/Blackhawks and Islanders/Coyotes from the last week would all be excludes going forward.  And even with those plays we are still at 4-4 +1.6 for the month.

Rockets also lost both plays last night, though I have been testing most of the week and I’m confident in those setups, especially the moneyline plays.

NHL is definitely out today but I haven’t been doing basketball long enough to tell if there will be anything there or not.  Updates later if at all.

Speed Post

Utah won by a lot last night and the Flyers lost by a near equivalent margin.  Ohio St. under was a close winner as they played their bench the entire 2nd half.  I should maybe not be so nitty with the lines, but I say that every time I was going to play something and pass because of a line move that wins anyway.

NBA again tonight: Houston +2.5, also Houston +120

Hockey: Islanders +160

Wednesday

We were 30 seconds or so from a perfect Tuesday, but Tampa screwed everything up by allowing Ovechkin to score his 4th of the night and tie the game late in the 3rd period.  Tampa led 3-0 12 minutes in so it was quite the collapse to lose in the shootout.  Regardless, Colorado was a 3-1 winner and Milwaukee not only covered the 7.5 but won outright.

Two plays tonight:

NBA: Utah +7 @ Sacramento

NHL Flyers +165 @ Blackhawks

I probably should wait to see where Utah’s public # ends up but I won’t be around later to update.  Also I was just about to play Ohio St. Bryant Under 140 but the line just moved to 139 :(

Tuesday

A winning week closed with Chicago winning easily and the Islanders getting somewhat embarrassed in Anaheim.  If you want to know how to describe a shitty team, the Ducks coach gave a great example in his postgame press conference:

“We weren’t ready for them,” Anaheim coach Bruce Boudreau said. “But it seemed like every time they were outplaying us, we got a goal. We hung around just long enough to get our legs, and once we got to 4-2 on the same shift, I think it took the heart out of them a little bit.”

The 4-2 he speaks of game at the end of the 2nd when New York gave up a shorthanded goal on a 3-on-1 break followed by another guy scoring from his knees all within 30 seconds of going to the break tied 2-2. Forward to much better hockey teams with two plays tonight:

Tampa Bay +130 @ Washington and Phoenix +120 @ Colorado.

I’ve also been busy the past few days and am ready to start real-life using an away team NBA system starting tonight with Milwaukee +7.5.

Also since it’s Tuesday it’s time to update my record:

NCAA hoops Sides (Not for real $) 7-8-2 -1.8
NCAA hoops Sides (Real $) 1-0 +1.0

NCAA Hoops Totals are 7-4 +2.65

NCAA Football: 10-11 -1.47

NFL Teasers 1-4 -3.2

NHL 16-9 +13.17

NFL: 12-9 +4.22

Eclectic Saturday

Yes, I just wanted to use the word eclectic in a post on a gambling board someday and now my dream has come true. Anaheim won the coinflip last night in a completely even game where a draw was a fair result.  Marist lost by 10 or 11, failing to cover the 9.5 and are now 0-9 on the season.

Some college hoops this morning.  A total I am playing for half a unit is BYU/UMass Over 173.5.  And unlike the fake plays I have been posting, I have a real money play on a hoops side and it’s North Carolina -26.5 at home to Greensboro.

Winnipeg is easily the most likely hockey play today as everything else is either excluded or kind of middling.  7:00 start so I will confirm later if it’s a play.

Lastly, I still have nothing in college football.  Obviously should have taken Bowling Green yesterday.

Update: Passed on Winnipeg who are currently up 1-0. Our over was a winner

Friday

Light day yesterday and I went 1-0 with San Diego covering, losing by 1 on a last second shot.  I debated backing Carolina again in hockey yesterday away to Nashville, but opted against and missed out as they won easily.  I do have a hockey play today, and that’s Anaheim +150 @ Chicago.  Also a hoops play, Doug’s Marist +9.5.

There should be some NFL action and just as I figured, Washington is showing up on my filters for Sunday.  Still not sure what I’ll do there, but a few other games also look OK at the moment.   Likely no college football for me this weekend as these neutral site games and indifferent public opinion have me without much to go on.  Bowling Green +3 is close for me tonight but I am passing.

Lastly if anyone hasn’t heard, the US got a ghost of World Cups past in their group drawing Germany, Ghana and Portugal, the latter being literally played in the rainforest.  Lots of crap teams on the US half of the draw, so there is a decent chance of making the later stages of the tournament for whoever makes it out of this group.  Six months until the tournament, so we’ll have plenty of time to get down action this summer.