Category: Basketball
Wednesday
Mixed day again yesterday for us as Boston was covering at 6.5 for about 30 seconds getting blown out in New York, but Nashville was a winner making hard work out of what should have been a straightforward win. Our leaners in Minnesota and Indiana both won so good for you if you played them.
Nothing doing in the NBA tonight as the Josh Smith reunion was cancelled in Atlanta due to snow/ice/cold/incompetence. Hockey is outdoors again at Yankee Stadium and I am passing but would take the Islanders if forced.
Tuesday
0-0 yesterday and while that’s not terrible, in fact it’s downright breakeven, we can do better.
NHL Nashville +120 @ Winnipeg. Minnesota +180 is an option for those who want to gambooooool, but I am 100% passing.
NBA Celtics +6.5 @ Knicks. Indiana -10 is close at the Lakers but probably a pass. We will see. 10:30 tip there.
Plays 1/26
Any plays today @ 13.
Utah +14 -101 @ Arizona.
The thinking on this one. It seems the key in terms of simply achieving competitiveness against Arizona is to rebound, rebound, rebound. And that is one thing Utah can do. If you read the scouting reports it sounds like the ideal team to face Arizona would have 2 college versions of Ben Wallace, there simply to defend, rebound, and perhaps more importantly, kick out to a group of wing players that can all shoot. Utah has parts of this equation down, hopefully close enough for a cover.
California +7 -105 @ UCLA
Outside of Arizona I think Cal may be the best team in the Pac-12. And this line doesn’t quite reflect that. If this were 4.5 or 5, Sobe green tea it, but it isn’t, probably because so much public money flies in for UCLA regardless. I see this as a close game that Cal could very well sneak away with in the last minute.
YTD : -33.92
Plays 1/25
I will likely be adding on to this as the evening wears on.
St Johns +3.5 -112 @ Butler @ 13
YTD : -45.53
Plays 1/24
I say plays but I only have one at the moment, possibly more as the evening progresses.
Capitals/Devils Under 5 -106 @ 13
The Devils (for the most part) do not score or yield a ton of goals. Ovechkin is the only Capital at the moment worth a damn offensively. In other news, I am happy to report that the 6 goal over/under line is an actual thing, there were two the other night. This corresponds with what seems like a slight uptick in goals recently. I am a bit behind but I have been tracking lines for the last month or so and there has been a heavy barrage in what I will call BTOs or Big Time Overs. Those are overs that crush the line. On the days of 1/18, 1/19, and 1/21 ( I was hungover as balls on 1/20) there were 11 BTOs by my standards* and only 2 BTUs (ha! BTUs). One wonders if it has anything to do with this quote…
” The league is screaming for goals and all of a sudden, I don’t know how you can kick it and try to stop at the same time,” Sabres interim head coach Ted Nolan said.
That quote happened after a game where someone had a goal disallowed for kicking it into the net. The only thing we are concerned with is that it seems the NHL, like it has often in the past, is making a concerted effort to increase scoring. Something to think of moving forward maybe.
* Big Time Whatevers are when the final score differs from the line by 1.5 goals or more. As when the line is 5.5 and the final score ends up being either 4-3 (BTO) or 3-0 (BTU).
YTD : -57.79
***UPDATE***
I am not going to touch it but the Thunder/Celts game has moved 3 points in roughly .3 seconds since Durant has been ruled out. This should honestly be a measure of MVP credibility, how much does the line plummet when you are unexpectedly yanked from a lineup hours before a game. It’d be great if for some players like 2014 JR Smith where the line moves backwards.
NCAAM Plays
Our pick last night was a dud for our first defeat for the year. I am going to be aggressive with underdogs today. All of these plays are 13.
Indiana St +10 +102 @ Wichita St
New Mexico @ Fresno St +5.5 -101
Vanderbilt +9 -102 @ LSU
Georgia Southern +2.5 -102 @ Appalachian St
Davidson @ NC Greensboro +7.5 -106
Jacksonville St +11.5 -110 @ Eastern Kentucky
UMass @ Elon College +4.5 -106
USC / Colorado Under 140.5
YTD : +21.39
NCAAM Slight Home Underdogs
For anyone reading this, slight home underdogs have been doing very well the last couple of weeks in NCAAM. The two I chose last night went 2-0, which is nothing compared to the 5-0 teams that fit this criteria ran as a group. Why not ride the wave? Of three games on tonight, one matches our description. Play is 14.
Wisc Green Bay @ Wright St +1 -103
YTD : +35.39
Basketball Plays
Our only bet so far of 2014 was a winner the other day. Whats interesting these days with hockey is there exists only two possible over/under numbers. 5 and 5.5. The amount of juice tied to whichever number Vegas takes can vary drastically, but those are the only options I have seen over the last couple weeks. The two major sports most in sync with the scoring totals of hockey that I can think of are soccer and baseball. I have definitely seen baseball’s range go from 6 to upwards of 12, and just this week in soccer the range for Premier League games stretch between 2 and 3.5. Anyway, this has nothing to do with our action tonight. Both bets here are 13.
UL Lafayette @ South Alabama +1 -106
Austin Peay @ SIU Edwardsville +2 -110
Recognize the pattern? Both very slight home underdogs. There were a few others that existed that I easily could have thrown in (Vandy, Minnesota, Montana St) but we will go with just these 2 this evening.
YTD : +11.32
Sunday
Some more quick notes today. Tampa was a winner for those who followed yesterday 6-3. One play today with a 3pm start is Buffalo +180 @ Washington. NBA has a game to check later and that’s Minnesota who is at San Antonio. Lastly, in the NFL today, Carolina is the side to be on in the early game but I have little interest in fading the 2.5 point line move. Definite pass on SF. I have no opinions on the Denver-SD matchup.
Likely limited service through the beginning of next week.
Friday
Again, apologies for the Detroit play last night as they got smushed 4-1. College hoops were both winners but Miami lost outright in New York, so a mixed day all around. Not much looks good today. Toronto is the only “lean” tonight, but they are on a back-to-back. One play in college hoops and that’s Wright St. +4.5.
A quick note on the NFL playoffs…There are a total of 11 playoff games each season or roughly 1-2 fewer than an average regular season week with a few teams on bye. Please don’t be overly degen and try and bet on games that you wouldn’t otherwise. Just like poker, it’s OK to fold a winner every once in a while. I will try and get plays in tomorrow morning but I may be asleep. Good luck to all per usual.
