Category: Basketball
Tuesday
Short on time, may add another game in each sport in a few hours.
NHL
Edmonton +155 @ Philadelphia
UPDATE: I did not account for the terribleness of Edmonton backup goaltenders that only rivals Winnipeg and the Islanders for sustained failure. Doubling down on another terrible team, Toronto @ Arizona -110
NBA
Phoenix -6.5 @ Lakers
Plays today
First of all, congrats to Lou for betting on a WNBA game. That’s some ballsy shit right there. In honor of this, I’m making a small play on the Ottawa Redblacks +7 at Hamilton in the CFL.
Here are my plays today:
TB +102 and in Parlay with Dodgers -195 (Kershaw) at +200.
DET/ANA Over 8.5 -105
UFC:
Daron “Detroit Superstar” Cruickshank +190
Robbie Lawler vs Matt Brown fight goes the distance +300
Keep an eye out for NFL totals soon, maybe even in podcast format.
If you bet on every Peyton Manning & Tom Brady reg. season start since 2003:
177-116, 60.4%
+55 units won
18.8% ROI pic.twitter.com/J0LFpJ7Vk5— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) July 21, 2014
World Cup This Weekend
Like Lou, I am also hedging a result on Sunday except it is for Argentina to WIN (+140 and +240) as I have them 11/2 to finish second before the tournament. I will also make a small play on the draw at +230.
I will say if I had no horse in this matter, I would love Germany here. They are playing fantastic. This game is a big moment for Messi; he leapfrogs Pele as “greatest footballer ever” with a win here (he’s already the best CLUB player of all time, IMO).
For today’s game, Brazil v Netherlands, I like the over at +3 at +115.
Since 1978, every World Cup Third-place match has had at least 3 goals with an average of 4.22 goals per game.
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) July 11, 2014
Also, for those curious what the NBA futures are now after yesterdays news (how did I not make a small play on the Cavs when season ended in case this happened?)
Current NBA Futures (via 5Dimes)#Cavs +425#Spurs +500#Thunder +650#Rockets +700#Bulls +800#Clippers +1100#Pacers +1900#Heat +4000
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) July 11, 2014
World Cup Today 6/19
First, I’d like to recommend a trend for live bettors (such as myself) for these WC games, especially in venues like Manaus (which is in the Amazon) and Brasilia (near a mountain), where either the humidity is often VERY high, or the altitude is high, and that trend is second half scoring.
In this WC, we have already had 6 comebacks. Also, the majority of the goals have been scored in the second half. This is mostly due to fatigue, and as the second games loom, teams moving forward because they need a win rather than a result (see: Australia v NED yesterday, by far the most exciting game so far this WC).
So when the game starts, take a look at the “second half to be highest scoring half” line and take a plunge. I made a nice 25 unit score during the Cameroon v Croatia games as that line was +250 (and this was before Arsenal’s Alex Song got that god awful red card at the end of the 1st half…so make sure you take it early). On a side note, Croatia v Mexico looking to be like a great game.
I am angry I missed betting against Spain yesterday. Chile was essentially playing a home game against futbol’s version of the 2012 Boston Celtics (a once great team with old geezers and a key missing defensive part like Puyol).
Here are my bets today:
Ivory Coast +280
Uruguay v England Under 2.5 +110 (and will also hedge second half with over goals)
Japan +110 and the draw at +250
I leave you with this wonderful vine from the Spurs parade yesterday. Gotta love Pop being a dick:
Bet you can't watch just once https://t.co/GltUdeDLhh
— Michael Smith (@michaelsmith) June 19, 2014
Cross Bets
Here are my plays today:
Brazil -1.5 @ -120
Brazil 2-0 at 4-1 and Brazil 3-1 at 12-1
Brazil is unbeaten (15-0-2) in 17 straight World Cup openers, winning 8 in a row. Host nations are undefeated in World Cup openers (14-0-6).
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 12, 2014
Also, for those of you wondering (and you know who you are *coughpatdartscough*):
World Cup Over/Under props:
Goals: 158.5
Yellow Cards: 275.5
Red Cards: 18.5
Corners: 647.5
PK's scored: 32.5
PK's missed: 12.5— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) June 12, 2014
Here’s an MLB nugget for Lou:
This season MLB underdogs receiving less than 30% of moneyline bets have gone 146-181 for +12.67 units and a 3.9% ROI http://t.co/jOoQ5rVL1h
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) June 12, 2014
I also like Miami -5 and in a teaser with the over 197 in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. More from the good folks at Bet Labs:
During the Big Three era the #Heat have gone 10-0 ATS following a playoff loss of more than 10 points. #NBAFinals http://t.co/WrWa9IpHKq
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) June 8, 2014
Survivor
Pretty good day for me yesterday, despite me losing the Thunder bet (I ended up being quartered as I also too the over, but missed teaser/line/ml). The buzz in the WSOP at the end of the game was kinda neat though. Of the many moments that you take away from Vegas, the random guy going, “YEAH!” at any time for the various result he is desiring is truly a great, positive, human feeling of elation, relief, and joy. Who needs shrinks and prozacs when you have miracle cover run good to turn that frown upside down! I will say: I abhor the cigarette culture here. I’m surrounded by cig butt ash no matter where I go, which in a sense is a fun ironic metaphor for the ashes of the millions of dollars being set on fire in Vegas, ON A DAILY basis.
For yesterday, I went 3-1: missing the White Sox at +105…..but hit a UFC play (CB Dollaway +150), the Orioles at +110, the Athletics at -120, and those 3 in a parlay that paid out 10 to win 127. I also made it to Day 2 of the WSOP Millionaire Maker NLHE tournament with 18.2k in chips. Not bad for a “day”s work”.
Things I like today:
Blackhawks/Kings Under 5 at -105 (Game 7, I expect the best from these two goalies)
Blue Jays/Royals Under 8.5 -110 (Buerhle has pitched well lately)
Cubs +128
Giants +100
A’s -142 (I might also look at taking them winning the AL at some point, they are due. I’ll need to look at this more, and hope I won’t be able to because that will mean I am still playing poker or $1.3 million dollars)
Leave you with this interesting nugget on Spurs futures for the title:
While the #Heat never had higher odds than +280 to win the title, the #Spurs were listed at +1500 back on Feb 14th. pic.twitter.com/lb5U9DaVVm
— Action Labs (@ActionLabs_HQ) June 1, 2014
Vegas Thunder
First dispatch from Vegas and the WSOP here…..had a good cash game session last night, and when I checked into my room, the floor I was staying on, smelled like a rap concert. Good karma, indeed.
I’m going to take all of the profit I made from poker and put it on the Thunder -3 (now -3.5 and moving quick), as well as tease them with the over 207, all at -110.
I like the Thunder for 4 reasons:
1) They are the second best scoring team at home, behind the Warriors. They have won 22 out of their last 24 games at home. This means Ibaka doesn’t have to play much/well to make a difference like he will have to in a potential Game 7.
2) The Spurs are old and old teams tend to not do so well on the one day turnaround. The Celtics during the Garnett years were famous for this.
3) “The Game 6, down 3-2 at home” bet theory I have which has been pretty +EV for me over various sports in my betting years. They also got blown out last game. Teams usually respond with their backs against the wall here.
4) The NBA fix is in. The Heat/Pacers series has been a snorefest, with the only story off interest being Lance Stevenson affectionately blowing into LeBron’s ear. This has been a home-and-home series. The NBA needs that Game 7 revenue, and I smell either Duncan enemy Joey Crawford or Dick Bavetta getting called out of the bullpen here.
I also like the Mets +116 tonight against the Phillies. Their starting pitcher Montero can no where be as bad as this guy:
Funny part is, 50 Cent was reportedly throwing strikes in warm-ups, just like the Mets’ bullpen.
Thunder Dome
I like the Thunder tonight -2.5 (-105) vs the Spurs to tie things up 2-2 in the series. Also made a speculative play at Thunder +536 to win the series when down 0-2……but they got Ibaka back. He’s the difference, because he can actually guard Duncan 1v1 (Perkins is OK individual defender, but he’s mostly a great “plug” team defender).
I just have this feeling that Durant and James are going to meet again, and I’ll be giddy for it all as I have the Heat pre-season to win the title, and I’ll get some freeroll action like I did last weekend in the UEFA Champions League Final when Real Madrid beat Putty’s Atletico (I would have posted the amount of stuff I bet to hedge on here last Saturday, but I am afraid I would have broke the site and drowned out all of the content Lou has posted. I also think at one point a “Real to win at -170 and Blackhawks/Kings Under” parlay may have happened. It was that degenerate).
I’ll be in Vegas next week for the WSOP and will be posting UFC and World Cup thoughts.
I’ll leave you with this nugget for Pat Darts and the NY Rangers:
Rangers advance to Stanley Cup Finals with win tonight. They last advanced on this date in 1994 on 2-OT goal by Stephane Matteau
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 27, 2014
Tuesday
Natinals won in the rain last night 4-0 in a game neither team was much interested in playing after the 3.5 hour delay in the 5th. Add this to the list of reason to switch back to a 154 game schedule with games like this involving teams that won’t play again this season being forced to complete. Kershaw returns for the Dodgers tonight.
Nothing doing on any MLB sides, but we have our first total of the season and it’s in Boston, Reds/Red Sox UNDER 9. A rare basketball total tonight as well, Miami/Brooklyn UNDER 192.5.