Miracle Covers

Royal Hedge

I have a good amount of money on the A’s winning the AL before the year (I took them before the Samardzija trade and after, it totals to around A’s +425); unfortunately, despite beefing up their starting rotation….their lineup has sucked balls since trading Cespedes for Lester in July.

Therefore, my hedging starts tonight as the Royals host their first playoff game since 1985.  I’m taking KC at -103 (Shields) vs Lester and the A’s on the mound.  Also, for your edification, the over/under is 6.5; under tonight’s umpire, Bill Miller, the total has hit the under 58.6% since 2005.

This hilarious nugget from the briliant Joe Posnanski sums up the Royals futility over the last 19 years:

In the afterglow, I find myself trying to remember the low moment, the moment that summed up all of what it meant being a Kansas City Royals fan the last 20 years or so. I think of the time Tim Belcher was named the Kansas City Royals pitcher of the year despite the somewhat limiting fact that he had a 5.02 ERA and had pitched no better than the numbers. He sat on stage glumly, accepted the award with a sheepish speech about how he didn’t deserve this award (in this case, he really didn’t) and sat down no doubt thinking he couldn’t wait to get out of Kansas City (which he did a year later).

The Royals, those Royals, are going to the playoffs.

And now here’s a chart from Skidmore College statistics professor Michael Lopez on how Sabermetric MLB Forecasts Stacked Up Against Vegas:

It has been a great gambling year for me…….but Boston is, IMO, kind of coming back to Earth with sports success.  Rough night for the Pats last night; it might of been their worst game in the Brady-Belichick era….and Bill Simmons couldn’t say a word about it.  He probably hates the NFL so much right now, that motherfucker isn;t even watching the games!

On top of the that, WSOP Bracelet winners, and KC natives, the Hinkle Brothers, let this Pats fan know just how they felt about the game last night.  That Pats under (11 at -150) is looking good right about now:

Saturday Baseball

Cubs +111 with Doubront going against the Dodgers.

Friday

Falcons and the Over were embarassingly easy winners last night.  One leaner in baseball tonight and that’s San Diego with nothing much else doing.  Hockey training camps have opened so we are only a few weeks away from real games.  October 8th & 9th is opening night.

Wednesday

We were in fact 2-1 yesterday though not without some drama as both Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan blew saves as Minnesota ended up winning 4-3 in extras.  Two leans in Minnesota and Houston but no plays today.

40-39 +3.61 for the season to date.  NFL is 2-2 -0.25

Tuesday

Cubs were a 1-0 winner last night on an Anthony Rizzo HR.  Arizona would have been a play and a 6-2 winner last night had I not been preoccupied.  Three plays tonight which is a record for the season.  Hopefully we will go 2-1.

Dodgers (Haren) @ Rockies (Maztek) +111

Giants (Peavy) @ Arizona (Collmenter) +108

and the worst one Tigers (Porcello) @ Twins (Nolasco) +113

Monday

Late posting. I am on the Cubs tonight Reds (Simon) @Cubs (Wood) -117. There may be an additional west coast game to follow

Tuesday

0-2 yesterday with a pass on the Arizona game that also would have been a loser.  Not only were we 0-2, but neither team he had scored a run.  That’s 18 innings of futility to go with the 13 from Saturday when Sean and I were at Wrigley and it’s very apparent that this baseball season needs to end soon.  There’s an article here describing the expansion of (or return to) the rulebook defined strike zone and how it’s led to a significant reduction in scoring along with fewer steroids and shifting defenses.

The lower strike zone explains one-third to two-fifths of the offensive decrease over the last five years.

I’m not longing for the days of futility infielders hitting 30 home runs a year, but I’d like to see a run scored every so often, even if I’m gambling on and watching some of the worst offenses in the league.

No plays tonight.