Category: Baseball
Too Much Hutch
Lou’s boy Drew Hutchison is -180something in a game tonight where he has 5.4-5.5 era against a perfectly respectable gentleman pitcher in Kendall Graveman. Counterpoint, this means betting against Toronto. Resolution…
Oakland (+1.5 -120) @ 16
MLB Leans 8/5
Mets/Marlins Under 7 (-115)
D’Backs ML +124
Both in parlay for +300
Who doesn’t love a good long shot?
https://twitter.com/FootyVines/status/629048624723402752
CFL Thursday
MTL/HAM UNDER 53.5
Lost a shit ton in Vegas and been in recovery (aka drinking) the last few weeks…..UFC has helped us along the way and hopefully I can use that cash to run it up on poker on Bovada so I can place and hop on Lou’s lean on Dodgers to win the NL (17/4) and World Series (17/2).
Ample Time Plays
All plays here are @ 17. Loubacca is taking Germany thru me this evening.
Min/Cin Over 7.5 -123
Beyond Last Second Play
Natinals as Loubacca says, -170 @ 21. This bet is based on 2 words, Freddie Freeman. Would not be surprising if many pitchers who face the Braves over the next couple weeks appear Kershaw-like.
MLB Play
I’m a fixin’ to get fairly aggressive on baseball plays moving forward. Let’s start it out right.
Total Runs Today
Away Teams +111 @ 25
Pat Hetic
It’s time for our longest running segment here on miraclecovers. Pat gets wasted and chases dead money with horrific 2nd half bets on NFL Sunday? No silly, it’s time for baseball over/unders. I only had about 3 months to get my act together on these and I am late and under-prepared. But what are you going to do? As Lou mentioned, he and I did well on these last year. I have zero illusions I will have similar success this year, but all I need to do is get one point more than Loubacca. The stakes, as always, a pub crawl.
10) Tampa Bay Rays Under 79.5
9) Los Angeles Angels Under 88.5
8) New York Mets Over 81.5
7) Detroit Tigers Over 84.5
6) Milwaukee Brewers Under 79.5
5) Cincinnati Reds Under 78.5
4) Oakland A’s Over 81.5
3) Pittsburgh Pirates Over 83.5
2) San Francisco Giants Under 84.5
1) Minnesota Twins Over 70.5
***UPDATE***
Literally just saw Lou’s picks. Tampa Bay will be slightly crucial on this one.
2015 MLB Season Win Picks
Happy Opening Day. Here are my picks for 2015. Last season Pat and I did extremely well, with Pat winning because I couldn’t successfully order my plays. I missed on 10 and 9 and hit on 8-1. Since we do confidence scoring, this is a bad thing. Regardless here is the list, of which I am very confident about my 10 point play, and much less so about 9-1. I also have significant action on Tampa Bay to win the AL East at +740.
10 Tampa OVER 79.5
9 Cincinnati UNDER 78.5
8 Cleveland OVER 82.5
7 Colorado OVER 71.5
6 Baltimore UNDER 82.5
5 Texas UNDER 76
4 Oakland OVER 81.5
3 San Francisco UNDER 84.5
2 Houston OVER 75.5
1 San Diego UNDER 84.5
Over? Under?? I hardly know her!!
Going to save comment on these until making picks in about a week. Detroit and Philly are no-shows at the moment…
Arizona Diamondbacks 72.5
Atlanta Braves 73.5
Baltimore Orioles 82.5 (Over -127)
Boston Red Sox 85.5 (Over -124)
Chicago Cubs 82.5 (Over -127)
Chicago White Sox 81.5 ( Over -125)
Cincinnati Reds 78.5 (Under -149)
Cleveland Indians 82.5 (Over -161)
Colorado Rockies 71.5 (Over -141)
Houston Astros 75.5 (Over -129)
Kansas City Royals 80.5 (Over -121)
Los Angeles Angels 88.5 (Under -133)
Los Angeles Dodgers 92.5 (Under -133)
Miami Marlins 81.5 (Over -136)
Milwaukee Brewers 79.5 (Under -133)
Minnesota Twins 70.5 (Over -172)
New York Mets 81.5 (Over -133)
New York Yankees 81.5
Oakland Athletics 81.5 (Over -125)
Pittsburgh Pirates 83.5 (Over -159)
San Diego Padres 84.5 (Under -124)
San Francisco Giants 84.5 (Under -159)
Seattle Mariners 86.5 (Over -146)
St Louis Cardinals 87.5
Tampa Bay Rays 79.5
Texas Rangers 76 (Under -123)
Toronto Blue Jays 82.5
Washington Nationals 93.5
March 11
Nothing doing yesterday in NHL and nothing again this evening either on a short schedule. Capitals are a lean and nothing more. Since we have a free day and I teased this earlier in the week, I’d like to briefly move onto baseball. The top play for this season and will be my 10 point confidence pool play is Tampa Over 79.5. Long time readers of this site are aware that odds tend to get over adjusted when teams lose key players as their replacements qualities are often only briefly considered. Such is the case for Tampa who were slightly unlucky last season overall.
Tampa also represents what is far and away the best longshot opportunity for futures and that’s for them to win the AL East at or around +750. If you have Tampa as a mid-to-high 80s win team, as I do, then this payout is way, way off and should be much closer to 2-3:1. Also consider that the AL in general and AL East specifically are very clustered with lots of similar win totals across the league. Consider this bit from Ben Lindbergh:
The AL is a prognosticator’s nightmare. As Phil Birnbaum and Neil Paine have noted, there’s an absolute limit to the accuracy of baseball projections. Even if we were omniscient when it came to team talent levels, we wouldn’t be able to predict luck. And luck has large effects: As Birnbaum wrote, “On average, nine teams per season will be lucky by six wins or more.” So what do we do with a division like the AL East, where the worst team is projected to finish only six games behind the best? Even if those projections were perfect, it wouldn’t be at all unusual for the worst team to beat the best one through better luck alone.
Tampa to win the AL and World Series is around 27 and 55 to 1 respectively, but the division and seasonal plays are where the action should be.
