Miracle Covers

Very Early Baseball

Was checking out some very early baseball lines and there was nothing too noteworthy except for the AL East.  Looking at the odds below, no team is worse than a 9:1 shot which is impressive in a 5 team race.  The Red Sox are probably being given too much credit at +625 but who knows.  And most amazingly, the favorite at this moment are your Toronto Blue Jays.  Dickey indeed.

MLB Tweener

Something in between increasingly drunken NFL bets…and speaking of drinking, check out the rationale

SD Padres (-1.5, +111) 20 Units

SD Padres ML (-151) 28 Units

Giants clinched NL West last night.  I am guessing they got ripped last night.  Plus they are pitching someone named Petit.

Baseball Play

I would really like this a whole ton more if I was getting a better payout, but I am bending to Vegas’ will on this and accepting something at essentially even money.

Arizona (+108) @ Atlanta

D’Backs have a young pitcher Bauer who is supposed to be the bees knees.  The fact that the Braves are putting out Jurrjens or however you spell it is nice (since he’s been so hittable this year) but not fundamental to the bet.  It’s all about Bauer.  As a final note on this, I thought I was pretty hot shit knowing stuff about this guy…I had Sportscenter on for about 20 seconds this morning and they were talking about how this kid is still available in about half the espn fantasy leagues.  They were putting things in a positive light as in, “be the first in your league to grab him.  He may still be available!”  I’m shocked it’s already that high, though.  Very glass half empty feel to this.  We’ll see…

Baseball Plays

Not crazy about either of these bets but I’m hungover, slightly bored, and the proud owner of the MLB package, so why not.  I have

NYY (+160ish) @ Detroit

Seattle @ CWS (under 8)

By Verlandean standards, Justin has been pretty bad recently, and the Yankees are the Yankees.  I think honestly the best bet in the Seattle/W Sox game is betting on Sale, but I picked up Milwood in “super-dork league”* so I simply can’t bet against him.  Both Milwood and Sale have been pitching well recently, so I’ll gamble on the under.  I could literally see this coming down to the wire, like a 4-3 game in the 9th with men on base.  See what happens.

* Phrase by Louis

Baseball Play

I like the Oakland A’s tonight as a slight, slight underdog against the Angels.  LA’s pitcher Jerome Williams has been excellent this year after a poor first outing against the Yankees.  But the Angels are injury-riddled at the moment, and A’s pitcher Tommy Milone is fully capable of pitching a gem himself.

The Play : A’s (+105)  20 Units

Lou’s 2012 MLB Over Unders

Excuses Reasoning to follow…or not.  Again this is confidence pool scoring, so 10 is the highest confidence and 1 is the lowest.  Winner between Pat and myself gets a pub crawl all expenses paid.  Last season Pat and I both did horribly.  I believe I went 4 for 10 and Pat went 3 for 10.  I managed to hit on three of my top five to give myself at least some respectability. Like the NFL season win totals, which I am admittedly much better at, my picks lean towards the under because betting on failure is always more fun than betting on success.  Plus the number of available wins in Pat’s posted list is 2447 which is 17 more than the total number of wins available in a season (minus the play-in game to the play-in game to the play-in game et al).

10) Toronto Blue Jays Over 80.5

The Blue Jays are up to 83 wins on Pinnacle.  That’s generally enough for me as Pinnacle rarely moves their lines without an excellent reason.  Very hot and unsustainable spring by the Blue Jays who should have enough talent and organizational depth to get to .500

9) LA Dodgers Under 81

I’ll let someone more qualified at writing explain this one:

Still, you can be an above-.500 team with two superstars and a cast of decent role players. The problem is general manager Ned Colletti hasn’t shown he can find competent role players at bargain prices, the way so many smaller-budget teams have. Colletti scanned the free-agent landscape and decided that the best bet to play left field was Juan Rivera, a mediocre hitter (.314 and .308 wOBAs in 2010 and 2011) who’s generated just over 1 Win Above Replacement over the past two seasons, wasting about 1,000 plate appearances to get there. At least Rivera’s only going to eat $4 million and a club option to play poorly and block Jerry Sands (a rare homegrown player with some pop) from playing time. Juan Uribe had a career year at age 32 with the 2010 Giants, convincing Colletti that a career stuffed with injury problems and a complete misunderstanding of the strike zone wasn’t as important as whatever happened 10 minutes ago. Uribe’s now in year two of a three-year, $21 million deal, slated to be the Dodgers’ starting third baseman this year after hitting .204 with four homers in the 77 games he didn’t miss in 2011. On the plus side, 2012 could bring the Dodgers another Cy Young, an MVP award, and the league lead for crummy, overpaid starters named Juan.

8) Baltimore Orioles Under 70.5

Fun fact: The Orioles have not exceeded 70 wins since 2005.

7) St. Louis Cardinals Over 86.5

The Cardinals replace Pujols with Beltran and get Adam Wainwright back with a largely unchanged roster otherwise.  I have a large bet on this one at 84. 

6) Kansas City Under 76.5

Their starting pitching is currently awful.  Not as bad as the Orioles but awful.  The bullpen is good and the hitting is getting there but 77 wins is a big ask.  Fun fact: The Royals have won more than 77 games once in the last 20 seasons.

5) Oakland A’s Over 72
I mistakenly left Oakland off my list in the original posting.  The projection systems like Oakland for 76 wins and so do I.  Last 5 seasons: 76, 75, 75, 81, 74 NL West for interleague

4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays Over 86.5

I have no good reasoning for this pick other than since the Rays got good they tend to beat their number by a few wins a season.  I think I picked them last year. 

3) Detroit Tigers Under 90.5

600 LB of corner infield.  That’s really all I have as they are going to score a lot of runs. 

2) Miami Fish Under 85.5

The Marlins weren’t particularly good last season and the division is more difficult than any besides the AL East, who Miami faces in interleague.  If everything goes right (Johnson, Ramirez, bullpen) they will cruise past this number, but it is a long season and Jose Reyes is unlikely to play all of it.   

1) Pittsburgh Pirates Under 73

This would be much higher on the list if the Astros and Cubs were not in their division. 

Lastly, just for fun…

-20) Chicago Cubs 74.5  I cannot envision a better line for this team than 74.5.  Reliably below average with few prospects for immediate improvement, yet the bet cannot push!  Good seats still available!  The 2012 Chicago Cubs!

2012 MLB Over/Unders

Shit the bed in this segment last year.  Time to wash the sheets.  Rules as always, pick over/unders for ten MLB teams.  #10 pick is your high confidence pick and is worth 10 points.  The stakes, a pub crawl.  At the #10 spot this year…

#10  Pittsburgh Pirates (under 73)  “Barmes is one of the worst regulars in baseball.”   “Presley is somewhat lacking in terms of power and speed. He had a distressing platoon split…”  “(McGehee)…coming off one of the worst seasons of any regular.”  These are the player reviews for far too many Pirates, creating a starting lineup littered with players who would struggle to make most teams’ benches.  Something to keep in mind that may or may not mean something, going into the night of the 19 inning blown call game vs. Atlanta they were 53-47.  That means they finished last year at a 19-43 clip.  Yucky.

#9  Toronto Blue Jays (over 80.5)  I will tell you flat out the reason I now really like this pick.  A night or two ago Lou noted some line movement since I posted over/under totals back in mid-March for this contest.  Apparently Vegas has been back-pedaling big time with these guys.  Original number = 80.5 with a ton of juice on the over.  Current number = 83.  Wow.  And their bullpen looks filthy, if you are looking for some non-degenerate rationale to take the over.

#8  Los Angeles Dodgers (under 81)  This is a bit difficult.  The Dodgers roll out essentially the same team every year, and every year, with the recent exception of 2009, they finish smack dab around the .500 mark.  Except in 2011 they needed three things to happen to get there, 1) their best hitter to have a career year 2) their best pitcher to have a career year 3) and the team as a whole to have a rather too successful 34-20 mark to finish the season.  Matt Kemp went ahead and signed a Hamptonesque 8 year deal which means money is no longer a motivation.  After him, this lineup is not good; the infield may rank among the least productive of any mid to major market team this year.  The Mets proved last year that any rotation going into a season with Chris Capuano as a projected starter is not in the greatest of shape.

#7  Milwaukee Brewers (over 85)  Losing Fielder is a bitch.  But check this out.  Remember that guy McGehee earlier in the Pitt pick?  He was the Brewer starting 3B last year.  This year it’s Aramis Ramirez.  Remeber how Corey Hart missed the first month of the season to injury and still hit 26 home runs?  Remeber how Greinke was injured as well and missed his first few starts?  Remember how the Ryan Braun suspension got overturned and this number wouldn’t have been that crazy different if it hadn’t?  Remember how the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates are horrible.

#6  Kansas City Royals (over 76.5)  There is just the absolute slightest of half chances that the Royals actually win their division this year.  Luke Hochevar had a very positive second half last season and while Danny Duffy struggled, his minor league numbers suggest a much better performance this year.  Losing Soria is not ideal, but they have a very capable trio of Holland, Broxton, and Crow to lead the bullpen.  Slightly terrifying that their success rests heavily on both Francoeur and Alex Gordon having consecutive impressive years.

#5  Philadelphia Phillies (under 93)  Wanted to take the Marlin over, didn’t have the balls.  Wanted to take the Nationals over, didn’t have the balls.  So let’s do the next best thing and take this under.  Now I tried this garbage last year twice, taking the W Sox over and Yankee under extensively based on the comparative strengths of their divisions.  Result: 0-2.  So here’s another argument, Hunter Pence may at this time be the best regular in this lineup, just sayin’.  So pitching, Halladay is a 34 year old power pitcher, just sayin’.   Maybe Cole Hamels starts going down Zito Avenue…The 2011 Giants are proof enough that great pitching alone is not enough at times, and if that great pitching morphs into solid pitching this team will struggle.

#4  Tampa Bay Rays (over 86.5)  If this lineup was a bit more confidence inspiring this would be a top level pick.  Then again, their over/under would be through the roof if this lineup was primo.  Everyone knows the pitching staff should handle itself well.  This is all about if the bats can hold their side of the bargain.  I like their addition of Luke Scott to the lineup, a wrinkle that gives Maddon just an extra ounce of flexibility.  If they add a power hitting middle infielder this number becomes virtually automatic IMO.  Those keeping track, that’s 4 “ifs” for this pick, good thing only 3 picks left…

#3  Colorado Rockies (under 81.5)  This just does not look like a .500 club.  The rotation could be a disaster.  “Speculate upon him in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, but don’t go overboard,” a quote from espn fantasy page on the team’s listed ace Chacin.  #2 starter Guthrie – “his fly ball tendencies are a major concern at Coors Field…tread carefully.”  #3 Pomeranz has 4 career starts and a plus 5 career era.  The #4 starter Juan Nicasio fractured a neck vertebrae about 7 or 8 months ago and Jamie Moyer will turn a half century old by the end of the year.  Suspect.

#2  Cleveland Indians (over 79.5)  Justifying this pick on two rather tenuous concepts.  I really like the back end of the Indian rotation with Tomlin/Gomez, and I like the youth movement led by the likes of Santana, Cabrera, and Kipnis, which should add excitement, energy, and skill to the club.  So again, I am justifying this pick on young talent and back end pitching.

#1  Texas Rangers (over 91)  The only mention I will make of the AL West.  This seems like the safest bet of the bunch, though picking the Rangers to do well always has a slight “when is the roof going to collapse” feel to it.  My confidence is bolstered by Mr. Met, Nolan Ryan working behind the scenes.

MLB Over/Unders

That time of year again…welcome to the longest running segment we have here on miraclecovers.  First, the lines.  As always, I will indicate heavy juice (120 or higher).

1. Anaheim (LA) Angels  91.5 (over -137)
2. Atlanta Braves  87.5 (under -145)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks  86.5 (over -134)
4. Baltimore Orioles  70.5 (under -139)
5. Boston Red Sox  90.5 (under -132)
6. Chicago Cubs  74.5 (under-142)
7. Chicago White Sox  76.5 (under -155)
8. Cincinnati Reds  87.5
9. Cleveland Indians  79.5
10. Colorado Rockies  81.5
11. Detroit Tigers  90.5  (over -149)
12. Houston Astros  63 (under -120)
13. Kansas City Royals  76.5 (over -177)
14. Los Angeles Dodgers  81
15. Miami Marlins  85.5 (over -122)  UPDATED
16. Milwaukee Brewers  85
17. Minnesota Twins  72.5 (over -144)
18. New York Mets  73.5 (under -163)
19. New York Yankees  93.5
20. Oakland A’s  72 (under -138)
21. Philadelphia Phillies  93
22. Pittsburgh Pirates  73
23. San Diego Padres  74 (under -143)
24. San Francisco Giants  87.5 (under -123)
25. Seattle Mariners  72
26. St Louis Cardinals  86.5 (under -149)
27. Tampa Bay Rays  86.5 (over -139)
28. Texas Rangers  91 (over -145)
29. Toronto Blue Jays  80.5 (over -161)
30. Washington Nationals  84

The Marlins are a little spazzy these days, apparently enough to keep pinnacle from posting an over/under line for them.  Either that or the intern couldn’t figure whether to put them under Miami or Florida and instead decided to take a long lunch.  That might sound ridiculous but Fauxdog.com, aka Bovada, has the team listed as the Miami Marlins, while they occupy a spot alphabetically appropriate for Florida Marlins.  They have the number at 83.5 so we’ll work with that for now.  More to follow on all this.

UPDATE

Pinnacle has the Marlins at 85.5, which is a full 2 games higher than what Bovada had.  Took a look at Bovada and sure enough the number there now sits at 84.5, a shift of an entire game over the last couple hours.  The 2012 Marlins’ slogan, “No one knows what the hell we’re going to do.”

Pat’s MLB Over/Unders – A Recap

Got absolutely hammered on this stuff.  I just went to write Over/Unders in the Subject Header and I hit the shift button making it Over?Unders which pretty much sums up my year.  Couple notes on my picks.

• Would have hit Boston over easy if not for the beyond epic collapse in September.  Obviously all the games count the same, but this is amazing.
• In the NY Yankee pick I noted the Yanks now have “three hitters that scare you and a whole lot of OK after that.”  Granderson was an OK guy.  Wrong.
• In my Houston over pick, more on that beauty in a moment, I noted “(the Astros’) rotation just isn’t the type that leads a team to 60 something wins.”  Don’t mean to brag, but I was pretty spot on with that.

At the end of the day I am pretty sure I went 1-for-10, back to the drawing board for next year.

Kudos to Louis for once again owning me on a long-range future bet, this time with his Houston Astros proposition for worst-record.  Actually enjoyed paying this bet out considering the degree of difficulty.  I thought I was legit fleecing Louis at 3.5:1 on the Astros.  Amazing stuff.