Category: Baseball
Blah
Not much happening this week and it’s been busy at work as well. I’ve missed a few bets with the day games and nothing at night has looked any good at all. The one bet I would have made was on the Cubs a few days back when they lost in 13. Still it’s better to not do anything than to do something monetarily harmful, so I’m not going to be bothered too much. I kind of like Cahill for Arizona tonight but need to see lineups and the public numbers before betting.
One play on the NFL Draft tonight
Total SEC Players Picked in 1st Round Under 13 -250 2u
There should be an MLS play somewhere for Saturday.
MLB Play
Shelby Miller is a very young, exciting talent for the St Louis Cardinals. Young, exciting pitchers can be often volatile, either tossing gems or getting bombed. They leave the 7 IP 3 ERs allowed lines to old men like Ryan Dempster or Ted Lilly. That is partly why I am taking the run line in this game, thinking Miller could shut the Nationals down completely. See what happens.
St Louis (-1.5) @ +156 @ Washington @ 22
Sunday
We went 2-1 on our MLS plays last night. The home favorites both won and Chicago got a late winner to beat Columbus 1-0. While it’s a pretty solid rule to never bet on a draw in soccer, I nearly did so on this Columbus Chicago game. The draw was around +225 and Columbus to win was around +210 so I took the +120 that pushed on the tie instead. I will need to revisit draw odds on these MLS games at some point since they are so low scoring. One game over 2.5 out of six last night.
Nothing in MLB again today. Two leans in Miami and Seattle both away, but I am short on time and will pass on both. Justin Grimm is starting for Texas today and while he’s a little old for a prospect, my intuition is telling me he’ll be just fine in the Rangers rotation.
MLB Plays
Cardinals ML -115 @ Phillies @ 22
Indians @ Astros Over 9 -101 @ 22
GM 1 Royals ML +135 @ Red Sox @ 22 (Ervin Santana Game)
Jake Westbrook has a 0.00 ERA but is only 1-1. Kyle Kendrick kinda sucks. The Indians and Astros offenses are both facing batting practice coaches. The Red Sox probably all partied last night.
MLB Plays
Two So Far. I am down 100 Units exactly since 4/1
Over 7.5 -111 San Diego vs San Fran @ 22 Units
Indians ML -110 vs Astros @ 22 Units
Lincecum is awful as is Richard away from home. Betting against the Astros is nothing revolutionary at the moment, but I am getting a good price as I am wagering on a man that has not pitched well in about half a decade. Just be average, Kazmir, that should be plenty.
No Plays = No Posts
One play today Pittsburgh +108 W. Rodriguez at home to the Bravos & Tim Hudson. Debating Padres and Marlins both near +200 on the road.
Fun question from trivia the other night. Name all the pitchers who spent time in the Mets organization have thrown a perfect game.
Haven’t really gotten into weekend soccer yet but will update with any plays. Highlight of the weekend in MLS is the first ever Cannabis Cup as Seattle visits Denver. Be safe ya’ll.
Tuesday
Keeping things short today. One play tonight Milwaukee (Peralta) at home to SF (Zito).
Sunday
We nearly won two and in a row with the Astros late last night, but the bullpen blew a lead in the 8th & 9th to lose 5-4. Also had a bit of luck in not finding a good price on the Cubs as they lost 3-2. The idea of taking all of these plus odds plays is to find the ones that are loser to 50:50 propositions and take the weighted coin flip as often as possible. There are some 2,000+ games each season to pick from so a large volume of smaller bets, the exact opposite of most other sports, is the preferred method. This is my first season tracking at length so we will see how it goes, but I assure you my plays are not very large.
Also won the MLS bet this week as Dallas beat LA 1-0 with a late goal. There were two missed penalties and a red card in the 2nd half, so there was a bit of luck here but the bet was a good one as there were zero shots on target by either team in what I’m sure was a thrilling first half.
Two leans that are most likely passes today with Oakland and Miami. I am really tempted to take the biggest line of the Astros series again today at +191 with Humber but there’s not much else there without seeing lineups and CJ Wilson will probably strike out 10-12. Sunday is especially a tricky day to bet baseball with the multitude of regulars that get the day off. Bobby Cox back in the day used to rest nearly half the starting lineup and hope the pitching would hold. If Ned Yost is doing something similar, I’ll bet on failure instead.
Saturday
2 for 2 on Friday and I wanted to repeat both bets today but cannot get a good price anywhere on the Cubs. Pinnacle has +116 but the best I can get is +101. Passing there because of the price difference but taking Houston again tonight with Harrell at Anaheim +161.
Quiet Week Busy Weekend
Not much doing the last few days with PSG giving Barca a scare in the quarterfinals our only action the last few days. One play this morning with a few more sure to come as I have time:
Cubs (Villaneuva) +145
Adding: Astros (Norris) +176
Astors are in Anaheim and I like fading Tommy Hanson here against Houston’s “Ace”
MLS
LA Galaxy @ Dallas U2.5 -125
I don’t actually know what Dallas’s team is called.
