Miracle Covers

MLB 4/30

On a decent roll at the moment.  Let’s try to keep it going.

Nationals @ Braves Over 7 -114 @ 24

Like Louis I also like the Marlins to beat the Mets, but such a wager would be OB for me.  More to follow.

UPDATE

Fully expected to make more bets tonight but didn’t like a damn thing.  Clinched a push in the Nats/Braves over with a Tim Hudson HR off Bryce Harper’s glove in right field and then reached full on cover territory later that same inning.  In Padres/Cubs action tonight we were reminded of one of the immortal gambling axioms.  Always check the wind at Wrigley for O/U.  This is gambling 101.  Ignore it at your own peril.

Tuesday Night MLB

SF (Bumgarner) @ Arizona (Cahill) +104

As previously mentioned, O’s/Mariners Over 7 -110

Very tempted to take Miami again tonight, but the line is unlikely to move enough in time.

NL Superdork May Update

For the two people that care, here is where my team stands after one month in the NL Superdork:

Logically, the first place team is the same one I ripped for having a horrific draft. We are using Runs Produced (RBI+Runs – HRs) instead of just RBI which is another reason I should not have drafted BJ Upton.  You’ll notice my batting average is lower than the Padres or Marlins and it’s for good reason.  This week alone, Venable, Upton and Laroche have gone a combined 5-64.  The runs produced  is simply a function of ABs and I think I will ultimately be fine there.  I also spent a solid 25% of my FAAB budget this week on Kevin Gregg to give me three Cubs relievers in a desperate effort to keep pace in saves.  It’s partially a function of having 13 teams, but practically every speculative reliever is already rostered.  This is good in a sense because it means it will be easier to rack up a lead in wins (I lost Billingsley to injury for the season, but still have 5 very good starters and prefer to roll with 6).  It’s rare that a saves guy will become available again that isn’t on a roster and I missed out on Henderson from Milwaukee in week 2.

It’s also a function of having 13 teams that there’s no clear leader and only one straggler at this point.  Everyone’s team kind of sucks to one extent or another.  I’ve been unable to complete any sort of trade so far and we will see if this changes at all come June.  If the power comes around (of which there is plenty on my team) and I can get some saves from somewhere, I should be able to stay in the upper half.

Here is my sad lineup heading into week 5: The players with no salary were FAAB’d onto the roster.  We get 2 bench spots and unlimited DL spaces.

Monday

Everything lost on Saturday and there were no plays on Sunday.  6-5 +2.61  on baseball for the season.  My soccer feed is broken at the moment but the total is +4u.

Two leans today at least one of which will likely be a play.  Seattle with Saunders and Miami with Fernandez.  Thankfully no games until 7 EDT tonight.  Will update closer to game time.  Big game for the Villa today and an NL Superdork update coming tomorrow.

EDIT: Miami (Fernandez) +140 at home to Mets (Harvey)

Seattle (Saunders) +105 at home to Baltimore (Britton)

MLB 4/29

Niese pitched OK yesterday but the Mets could not do anything offensively.  Better luck today…
O’s @ Mariners ML +103 @ 24

SF Giants ML +101 @ Arizona @ 24

Joe Saunders isn’t all that terrible, is he?  Matt Cain has to turn things around at some point, doesn’t he?

MLB 4/28

All bets hit yesterday so we are up 75 on the week, down 25 since 4/1.  Only thing I like at the moment…

Phillies @ NY Mets ML +108 @ 27.

I am tempted to go with the reverse run line business.  If you read btw the Vegas lines they have this game going something like 4-3 Philly, where I have it 5-3 NY.  Carlos Ruiz back in the lineup.

Saturday

We won our single live wager yesterday as the Padres won 2-1 at home to SF.  KC & Cleveland were rained out and that bet is rolling over to today with the same pitching matchup at +146 instead of +145.  The KC soccer bet from yesterday is tonight as well.  Adding another baseball play tonight with the Fish at home to the Cubs.

Chicago(Wood) @ Miami (Sanabia) +110

I like the thinking on Pat’s Padres bet today, but am not a fan of Stults or most lefties against the Giants.  Zito is also an extreme flyballer, so a big park like San Diego’s plays much more to his strength.

MLB 4/27

There are probably 2 or 3 people out there who have been able to make a half-way decent living over the years betting against Barry Zito.  I want to be one of them.  This combined with my unfounded belief in the 2013 Padres and you have

Giants @ Padres ML +110 @ 26

In addition to this I will take Reds @ Nationals ML -101 @ 23.  In both of these games Vegas has the away team as the slightest of faves so let’s root, root, root.

Brewers are swinging the bats fairly well the last week or 2, we will also take Brewers @ Dodgers Over 8 -101 @ 24