Miracle Covers

Wednesday

A late game-time decision worked out last night with the Cubs winning at home to the Cardinals 2-1. Milwaukee cruised and we also got the coin flip we were looking for with the White Sox, if by coin-flip we mean one Alex Rios infield hit in 10 innings as Matt Harvey dominated and the Mets won 1-0. I think others are now coming around to the fact that the White Sox offense is really bad and that Harvey is very good. 2-1 yesterday, and 3-3 +0.19 for May.

Today there is a 90% chance we’ll be on the Cubs again this afternoon but am waiting to see if the line improves at all. Texas/Milwaukee under 8 is looking ok at the moment, but lineups are necessary. Texas has been struggling with their bats of late as well.

Also today we have one play already in sketchy Italian soccer with Sampdoria to win at home -110 versus Catania. MLS also has midweek action but there are no plays right now. The ‘best’ is Salt Lake visiting New England with the solid under 2 instead of 2.5.

MLB updates and any late soccer plays posted here as we move along today. Other leans are Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh and the Mets.

EDIT1: St. Louis (Westbrook) @ Chicago Cubs (Villaneuva) -101

EDIT2: Passing on the total as I need some super strong indicators to bet a total. This one is not quite there. I also just lost out on the bet I was going to make on Milwaukee -111 which has now moved to -118. So passing all the way around tonight. Good luck out there.

Monday

Nothing doing again today. Hopefully this won’t last a whole week without any plays again. A couple of links:

1) Here’s a more thorough description of the Spanish soccer shenanigans that I mentioned a few days ago. One note that I forgot to mention is that in Spain, it’s legal to pay (bribe) a team to win but not ok to pay a team to lose. It’s the latter issue that is more problematic.

2) The Sabermetrics of Little League

You’re likely familiar with the defensive spectrum—the order of positions from easiest to fill to most difficult. The defensive spectrum in Major League Baseball is:

1B < LF < RF < 3B < CF < 2B < SS < C < P In my son’s league, the spectrum looks something like: C < LF < RF < LCF < RCF < 3B < 2B < SS < P < 1B There are some pretty big differences: First base could not be any more important at this level. Not only does your first baseman need to catch the ball (which by itself is very difficult at this age), but also catch balls thrown by other children. It’s one thing to catch a throw from an adult. But from another five- or six-year old? That’s tough. The defensive efficiency at this level can be seen in the team’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Right now, the Angels have 127 hits in 131 balls in play (I’m not calling anything by a five-year old an “error” because I’m not an ass). That’s good for a BABIP of .969. Yes, his team actually has statistics posted.

Pat really needs to do something like this for beer league softball.

Sunday

We lost our play on Chicago last night as the Royals won 2-0 with Guthrie getting the complete game shutout. My other bet against the Royals this season saw Erwin Santana do the same thing. While this is unlucky to an extent, I’d like to link here to a quick item on Guthrie and the secretly terrible White Sox offense.

You don’t usually see a guy with 1111 innings of a certain level of production become something significantly better in their 30s. At least not without a major change in their pitch mix either by adding a pitch or using what he has differently. There hasn’t been any of that with Guthrie which made his improvement even more suspicious. This split of his innings as a Royal definitely stood out:

Guthrie	IP	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%
vs. CWS	35.7	0.50	0.81	21%	2%
vs. Rest	87.7	4.21	1.31	14%	7%

I won’t go through all the metrics on the White Sox, but they are only ahead of the Marlins this season in runs scored, and they play with a DH.

As far as how the sketchy soccer games ended up, Cagliari and Chievo drew 0-0. Levante tried a little more against Mallorca and finished 1-1 and Zaragoza won 3-0. Maybe we need to be betting on these after all? Will have a look again next week.

Nothing in baseball or leftover soccer games today.

Friday

Not a good day yesterday as Portland had 22 shots and 2/3 possession only to draw with the Revs 0-0. This actually wasn’t a horribly depressing unwatchable 0-0 like most Revs games and New England even got a few good chances at the end as Portland pushed forward in search of a winner. As expected given all of this, the finishing and final ball were poor throughout. I also missed a bet on the Houston-Detroit under because I thought the game started at 10, but the Tiggers got 4 in the top of the 14th for the miracle over, so a bet saved there.

Early leans on the Mets, Colorado, Texas and Houston today. One note on these leans that I’m trying to post in the morning is that Houston and Miami will be getting flagged in the first sweep often because they are a) terrible and b) no one bets on them. This doesn’t mean you or I should. I have 5 plays on these two so far for 2-3 +0.16. Keeping in mind that a +200 line equates to a 33% chance of winning, and that this is almost the default line for Houston, there should be enough plays where we can pick & choose the ‘best’ ones.

EDIT:

Two plays tonight:
SD (Marquis) at home to Arizona (Miley) +104
Colorado (Francis) at home to TB (Moore) +112

I’ll take Houston with Norris tonight if I am around and the line moves in our favor. Spoiler alert: it won’t.

Thursday

One MLS play tonight.  Going with the public if there is such a thing in MLS with Portland tonight -143 at home to the Revs.  Barcelona’s loss at home yesterday is basically why there was no bet on Madrid the day before.  Absolutely anything can happen in these two leg games when the 2nd leg home team is trailing.


Even more nothing in baseball today and it’s not just me continuing to be nitty with the lines.  Tigers/Astros under 9.5 is the closest but we need lineups so this will be a game-time decision.