Miracle Covers

MLB Over/Under

Time once again for MLB Over/Unders.  Two years ago in predicting a Dodgers’ season under I made this observation…”if Kershaw goes down for a significant stretch this number is instantly unattainable.”  Of course, Kershaw missed a chunk of the season and the Dodgers cruised to an over.  Increasingly, I am trying to distance myself from statements that sound nice but are not concrete truth.  Here we go…

Texas Rangers (Under 77)

If things break right, the Rangers have a chance to be pretty awful this year.  Where to start…top pitching prospect Ragans OFS with TJ surg, “could be bad news for a system that isn’t exactly flush with depth.”  “Batting Gallo second in the team’s lineup is a ‘very real possibility,'” sounds like a potential disaster.  The only SP worth a damn is Cole Hamels, who “continues to struggle with his diminished velocity as age has caught up to him in a hurry.”  They signed Big Sexy. You think Elvis is going to repeat ’17 numbers?

Cincinnati Reds (73.5 Over)

Underrated lineup.  Votto’s numbers LY are pretty stunning.  Price has whispered about moving Hamilton out of leadoff which shows fantastic awareness.  The young kid Winker would seem an exciting possibility.  Suarez locked up, Barnhart very competent.  And they seem to finally be addressing the bullpen.  Important signing David Hernandez should help pave way for stud Iglesias.

Los Angeles Dodgers (97 Under)

The cocktail of SPs beneath Kershaw is an unsettling mixture of the elderly, the injury-prone, and the overrated.  Alex Wood will likely still be very good this year, but tough to see him being that good.  Rich Hill is 38.  Ryu hasn’t thrown 150 innings since 2014.  Has Maeda ever pitched into the 6th?  Chris Taylor will be hard-pressed to reach 80% of his stats.  Bellinger looked not only human but bad in the playoffs (29 strikeouts in 64 postseason at-bats.) The image of him consistently swinging over the top of curveballs in Gm 7 may become familiar this year.

San Diego Padres (71.5 Over)

In their trade with the Phillies, SD acquired Freddy Galvis who will “bat near the bottom of a sneaky-decent Padres lineup.”  Padres have very good depth in the outfield.  In years past, Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero would probably have been cringe-inducing starters, but now are perfectly respectable bench options. No Jered Weaver lunacy this year.

Houston Astros (97.5 Over)

Last year we hit with the Cubs Under.  The combination of a high O/U # and too may ?s was our justification.  I simply do not see that happening in Houston.  97.5 is a borderline terrifying number, but this team is stacked.  McHugh and Peacock are waiting in the wings if any pitcher gets injured or struggles.  The plethora of possible early alternatives to cover for the injured Gurriel is a sign of a fully capable farm system.

Tampa Bay Rays (73.5 Under)

This number has plummeted over the last few weeks.  Not admitting it but this organization seems to be in early stages of rebuild.  Longoria, Odorizzi, Souza, Boxberger, Cobb all gone.  When they DFA’d Dickerson I nearly lost sanity for about 45 minutes.  They’ll likely have either Kiermaier or Duffy hit 3rd, with neither a good option.  Jose De Leon AND Honeywell OFS.  Could be a long year.

Los Angeles Angels (83.5 Over)

Two exciting quotes from the folks at RotoWorld for Angels fans.  “Going to have an excellent defense across the board” and “vastly improved Angel offense”  I am not a massive Justin Upton fan but he had a very solid ’17 and “should be poised for a big 2018 hitting directly behind Mike Trout.” Similar story with Kinsler, who should be a “massive upgrade over what the Angels were able to get at second base in 2017.”

Seattle Mariners (81.5 Under)

When are you going to fall off the cliff Nelson Cruz?  Ben Gamel “saying he tailed off in the second-half of the campaign is an understatement.” Cano “relatively disappointing .765 OPS with 6 HRs and 37 RBI in 71 gms post AS game.” Taylor Motter, “owns just a .195/.265/.320 triple-slash across 338 major league at-bats.” David Phelps was expected to be a key member of the bullpen, TJ’d.  Say what you will about sentimentality and jersey sales and whatever, not the greatest sign they could afford a 25-man spot on Ichiro.

Atlanta Braves (75 Over)

Honestly just putting this in to fill out the numbers.  But, they do have a young, fun team.

New York Mets (81 Over)

I am contractually obligated to take this over.

World Series Game 6

Dodgers +102

One of my fav pasttimes is taking a baseball team down 3-2 in a best of 7 series in Game 6 at home. I did so with Houston in their Game 6 (-134) vs New York down 3-2. This series has been crazy and there’s no way its not destined to go 7 and be an instant classic.

Quick Play

Reds (-142) @ 18

Memorial Under

9, 8.5, 8.5, 9, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9, 11, 9, 8.  I think I got them all.  If I was a father I would insert the obligatory “They threw out the 11 from the Ukrainian judge” bad dad joke (BDJ).  These are over/unders for today.  I can honestly say I have never seen anything like this, not even a 7.5 in the bunch.  In order…

First thought, it’s Memorial Day, a lot of folks home with time to gamble.  Heavier action than usual, “life’s too short for unders,” jack the lines and exploit.

Second thought, it’s Memorial Day, usually a day off, bullpens will be tired from the weekend, Vegas is accounting for this.

Third thought, see if there is a Memorial Day phenomenon.  Last 2 years there were some heavy game totals but 2016 total was 121, 2015 total 124.

Fourth thought, well let’s put in a wager.

Total Runs Scored MLB Under 140.5 +100 

Happy Memorial Day.  Get better, Tiger.  (30-for-30 Title “Struggles on the Backside”)

****UPDATE****

Over gets smushed thanks to our friends in Houston and Toronto.  154 if my math is right.  The real lame part is Unders beat Overs 9-6 on the day.  But the overs were over the rainbow.  Not sure if that tells us anything interesting.  Also Update on Tiger blowing a 0.00.  Maybe he’s not in so rough shape.  BDJ, BOOM!

Lines That Make you Go Hmm

This is a category that has always interested me.  Today’s entry…

Yankees vs Royals  Under 9 (-118)

Pineda vs Vargas

To be fair, the Royals’ bats have shown recent signs of life, the Yankees have routinely proven an ability to mash, and Jason Vargas has been pitching light-years beyond his career norms.  Still, this number seems high, and America agrees with 83% taking the Under (according to pregame.com).  Hypothetical 100 bucks AGAINST the expected.  1 hundo on Over 9 (+107).

****UPDATE****

18 Total Runs.  Over hit before game’s halfway point.  Hmm indeed.

Lou’s MLB Over/Unders

My results on these have declined over the past few years. Who knew that spending markedly less time on something could result in inferior results?

10 Braves Over 74.5
9 Cubs under 96.5
8 Rangers Over 85.5
7 Yankees Under 82.5
6 Tigers Under 82.5
5 Mariners Under 85.5
4 Rockies Under 80.5
3 Reds Under 69.5
2 Nationals Over 90.5
1 Phillies Under 72.5

Homer pick to start but a lot of Unders this year. NL is woefully unbalanced so it’s hard to identify a pure .500 team. If there’s true separation by June, we could really see things diverge in the 2nd half of the season. Reds and Phillies should be the two worst teams along with San Diego and I have no idea how the Rockies total is at 80.5. In the AL, the Yankees need several things to go right to hit their over. I think the Tigers and Mariners are sending out the two oldest lineups in baseball without the rotation to really cover as backup.

Division Winner Guesses:

AL East – Boston
AL Central – Cleveland
AL West – Houston

NL East – Washington
NL Central – Chicago
NL West – San Francisco

MLB Over/Under Picks

Some thoughts looking at these numbers.  I’ve noted before that seeing heavy juice on a line can affect your decision making.  You try to come up with reasons on why to believe something.  Case in point last year with the Orioles.  Their line was somewhere between -170 and -180 on the under.  They were a trendy pick to lose a bunch of games, but they played beyond expectations.  Would I have felt so confident in them if they weren’t sitting at -173 or whatever on the under?  I doubt it.  Anyway let’s have a look.

Padres Under 66.5 – Not breaking new ground here.  Several have noted that, on paper, they have the worst rotation in baseball.  I am a fan of both Austin Hedges and Will Myers, but this lineup will consistently be littered with mediocrity.  And if the lineup is bad the rotation is horrific.  No starter is projected to have a sub 4.00 era in the pitchiest of pitcher’s parks.  Jered Weavers fastball was so slow the other day MLB pitch tracker listed it as a changeup.  (True)

Tigers Under 82.5 – Some of the Detroit blurbs are either hilarious or massively depressing according to viewpoint.  “None of their options are attractive,” “got roughed up again,” “need to turn it around.”  Reports note that in regards to position battles, one player fails while his teammate competitor “hasn’t exactly been great himself.”  Anibal Sanchez has apparently worked on his mechanics and is looking like he may rebound which is a point against us.

Phillies Over 72.5 – Lot of young talent on Philadelphia.  Plus you know you are generally not backing the trendy money when you are gambling on Philadelphia succeeding in anything.

Indians Over 93.5 – Well we have already gambled on Philadelphia doing well, let’s toss Cleveland in.  Last year as I routinely kicked myself for taking that damn Baltimore Under the theme that kept coming back for me was how good their bullpen was.  I am slightly nervous that Andrew Miller may be wearing down a bit.  Even if that is the case this unit should be strong enough to carry this team.  Hopefully a fully healthy year for Brantley.

Brewers Over 68.5 – The lineup by itself is certainly legitimate enough to clear this number.  The issue will be how many games the pitching gives back.  Craig Counsell seems like he’s due for some success.

Cubs Under 96.5 – To win this many games there has to be a minimum number of question marks.  You could make the argument that the entire OF is one giant one.  Jason Heyward is an enigma, Jon Jay is a far cry from Dexter Fowler, and when he isnt tearing ligaments Kyle Schwarber has played all of 40 games in LF.  Wade Davis may be fine but is coming off injury.  Hammel gone, Lackey ancient.  Too many questions for me.

Royals Under 75.5 – As has been reported on quite a bit, the Royals have quite a few key players heading to free agency next year.  Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Escobar…this is betting on the Royals selling at the trade deadline even if they’re in a spot that isn’t horrible.

Mets Over 87.5 – No reasoning necessary.

Angels Under 79.5 – My only offseason note for the Angels was to observe they had signed Ryan LaMarre to a major league contract, specifically 50k over the minimum.  That’s all I got.

Yankees Under 82.5 – Sure.

MLB Over/Under

Actual numbers first.  Lines with heavy juice noted.

Angels 79.5

Astros 91.5

Athletics 73.5

Blue Jays 85.5

Braves 74.5 (over -156)

Brewers 68.5 (over -161)

Cardinals 83.5 (over -152)

Cubs 96.5 (under -133)

D’backs 77.5 (over -139)

Dodgers 94.5

Giants 88.5

Indians 93.5

Mariners 85.5

Marlins 76.5 (under -126)

Mets 87.5 (over -130)

Nationals 90.5 (over -130)

Orioles 80.5

Padres 66.5 (under -142)

Phillies 72.5

Pirates 83

Rangers 85.5 (under -125)

Rays 78.5

Red Sox 92.5 (under -140)

Reds 69.5

Rockies 80.5

Royals 75.5 (over -148)

Tigers 82.5 (under  -126)

Twins 74.5

White Sox 68.5 (over -140)

Yankees 82.5