Category: Baseball
Detroit Over City
Like the Red Sox/Detroit over at 7 (-115…now 7.5 at -110) tonight.
It can’t be a 1-0 game every game, right? Yes……Detroit’s offense is struggling…but it’s bullpen is even worse. And the switch-hitting Red Sox OF Nava is 5-for-12 in his career against Detroit’s Game 4 starter Doug Fister. Fister also doesn’t strike people out like Detroit’s staff has…..Red Sox batters have struck out in 50% of the ABs in this series. And they are still up 2-1, which is astonishing considering the epic performance by the Detroit starters, who made the Red Sox set a record for lowest batting average in the first 3 games of a 7 game series at 0.133 (they beat the Cardinals vs the Dodgers this year…..what great television for MLB!!!!).
Now for our Bet of the Week:
Man Wins £125,000 On Bet His Infant Grandson Would Play For Wales
Wilson’s grandfather, Peter Edwards, placed a £50 bet with a local bookmaker when his grandson was 18 months old. At 2,500/1 odds, Edwards bet that his grandson would one day play soccer for Wales. He’s now £125,000 richer, and plans to retire on his winnings.
Edwards described the experience of watching Wilson’s debut to BBC News, and he sounds like a pretty awesome grandpa:
“I was shattered because I had to wait for 85, 86 minutes before he came on and I was panicking because they’d already substituted twice, so I thought he wasn’t going to make it,” he said.
“But when he came on I had another glass of wine. (I was) a proud granddad first for sure.
“I told my wife at half-time that my pulse was 106 – I didn’t know whether that was good or bad.”
And it was….a miracle cover!
Wonderful time of year
With hockey back in gear, baseball playoffs, and football abound…..wonderful time of year for gamblers and sports aficionados alike!
Interesting spotted trend early in hockey by poker’s Daniel Negreanu:
Expect more goals in the NHL this year since the rule change to goalie pad sizes. All the games last night went OVER. #goodforthegame
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) October 2, 2013
That being said, 65% of the overs so far have hit in hockey. Might be a trend we hop on with, and we’ll start tonight with Ottawa v Toronto over 5.5.
In baseball, I like S.Gray of the A’s getting +115 vs Justin Verlander, at home tonight in Game 2 of the ALDS. A’s lost last night, need a win, Verlander has struggled a bit this year (on my fantasy team #blah), Cabrera is playing on one leg, and I just think this series goes 5 overall.
In NFL:
Miami -3 (+105) v BAL
Baltimore’s offense is struggling, especially on the road. Miami is coming off a loss, healthy, and we are getting odds. And we’re gambling….
Teaser: Green Bay (-7) and Over (54) v DET
Two high powered offenses, RB Eddie Lacy is back, Rodgers at home, and I get to bet against Stafford on the road (at home he is fantastic). Tease em both down 6 points and rake in the dough.
PHI v NY Giants Over 53
These defenses stink
San Diego -5 (Even) at OAK
Oakland’s offensive line stinks, Matt Flynn is now the #3 QB behind some guy named McGloin, McFadden AND Marcel Reese are out. Add that this is a hedge against our SD under bet (which could be in jeopardy if Rivers keeps playing well)….and we’re gambling! Game is also at 11:35 ET thanks to the Oakland A’s playoffs.
JAX at St Louis (tie)
I wish I could bet this as a tie. No one wins even watching this game, never mind playing in it.
Your miracle cover of the week goes to OSU (-6.5) vs Northwestern:
Quick MLB Divisional Note
I had bet the Rangers in the first play-in game. The triple reasoning was a) Rangers have proven themselves in recent Octobers and are at home b) Price seems slightly overvalued currently c) Martin Perez had a very good 2nd half. The Rays, however, took the game. I have since made a parlay with the two NL faves. The Cards and Dodgers both entered this round at just about -150 so I threw them together for something resembling a potentially decent payout. The match-up I really like is Oakland +145ish. I feel that while Detroit’s pitching ceiling is higher, as a whole the depth of consistency for Oakland is very positive. Much of Detroit’s offensive success this year rested on a now banged-up Cabrera and an entirely too successful Hunter. No touchy on the Sox/Rays.
Wednesday
No plays today as anything close already happened in the day games. Close loser last night in Miami which obviously pays out negative as the Marlins lost 5-4. More tomorrow…
Back in Action
Slowly after a busy weekend gambling in person.
Dodgers (Capuano) @ Fish (Turner) +118
Friday
Back with a winner yesterday as the Sox made Ben Affleck Day come true again by conspiring to lose a very winnable game 2-1 scoring the one run on 11 hits. 13-8 +5.4 for August to date. One play so far today and it also involves the Sox hosting the Yankees:
Yankees (Pettitte) @ Sox (Doubront) Under 9 -105
Lots of other options today but nothing clear-cut so far. Milwaukee, Philly and Minnesota are tops for sides, Reds and Phillies again for overs at the moment. Nothing on the day games so expect one update with any plays in a few hours.
UPDATE: Dodgers (Greinke) @ Phillies (Lee) -105
Thursday
Sloppy gambling yesterday as the Cubs were nowhere near winning but the Yankees won easily in a game we passed on. I took the Cubs under for the picks contest which was a winner and obviously a much better play. Will try and do better today. Two leans on totals, Over 7.5 in Oakland and Under 8 in Detroit. On sides Toronto and San Diego are the only options. Updates per usual if I decide to play any of these.
UPDATE: One play tonight: Boston (Peavy) @ Toronto (Buehrle) +109
Wednesday
Squeaked out a winner yesterday in the 5-hour affair that was Pirates-Cardinals extra innings. First Starling Marte dropped a routine fly ball up 3-2 in the 9th that led to extra innings, then Mike Matheny failing to understand his batting order and what double switches are meant to accomplish, ended up with no batters remaining and Seth Maness batting cleanup behind Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig. In the 11th with runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, Matheny allowed Maness to swing and the Pirates turned a 6-9-3 double play with five infielders playing in to get out of the inning. In the 13th, Matt Carpenter doubled with two outs and the Pirates promptly walked both Beltran and Craig to bring up Maness again who struck out. Despite the mismanagement, the Cardinals scraped together a run in the 14th to win 4-3.
I thought today was going to be rather slow, but there is a play already in the day games:
Reds (Arroyo) @ Cubs (Rusin) +116
I am busy at work today but will update with any plays before the night games at 7.
UPDATE: Cubs lost 5-0. Obviously should have taken the under as I did in the picks contest. Nothing doing tonight, Yankees are closest but I’d need a slightly better price.
Tuesday
1-1 again yesterday, this time for a micro loss. Sox were a relatively easy winner but our over was never close. Andrew Albers for the Twins has opened his MLB career 2-0 with 17.1 innings pitched and a 0.00 ERA. Only six hits allowed in the two games and one walk. You can read about him here. One play for ya’ll today:
Pittsburgh (Morton) @ St. Louis (Wainwright) Under 7.5 -120
Monday
1-1 yesterday for a miniscule profit. Two more plays today:
Cleveland (Salazar) @ Minnesota (Albers) Over 8 -110
Detroit (Fister) @ White Sox (Sale) +106
