Miracle Covers

MLB Play(s) 4/2

Harang himself could possibly give up this Over.  Garza pitched horrifically during Spring Training.

Braves @ Brewers Over 8.5 +108 @ 10

MTD : +10.00

MLB Play 4/1

Erasmo Ramirez is my boy.  I had to unfortunately jettison him from my AL Keeper League at a good price.  Let’s show him some love.

Mariners +1.5 -140 @ 14 

MTD : 0.00

Tuesday

It was a rough Monday in both sports as all of our plays and potential plays were close losers. In baseball, our lean on the Mets and play on the Diamondbacks both lost as closers Parnell and Reed both blew saves. Hockey was not any better as Carolina lost in a shootout. Winnipeg turned into the most borderline of plays that I didn’t stick around to check on at 10 local time. It would have been a good play/poor result as Winnipeg got up to a 4-0 lead in the 2nd before setting the game on fire and losing in OT 5-4

No day baseball so everything is tonight. Typical light schedule on day 2 of the MLB season (day 11 using NCAA terminology).

One play tonight Yankees (Sabathia) @ Astros (Feldman) +132. Padres are a lean since the total is under 7. Hockey has Carolina and Florida showing as the only options and both played and lost last night.

2014 MLB Over/Unders

Lou and I had very respectable showings in this last year.  Let’s see how things go this year.  As always, the stakes are a pub crawl…

10)San Francisco Giants Under 86.5  The Giants in recent years have begun to diversify their portfolio, adding increasingly mediocre pitching to a team that couldn’t score runs.  After winning only 76 games last year they went out and signed a soon to be 39 year old pitcher in Tim Hudson, and Michael Morse whose career numbers are surprisingly lame.  I’m not even talking about how much he likes to strike out, did you know he has only once hit 20 hrs in a season?  The only thing that possibly saves everyone is Sandoval carrying the team on some crazy contract year.

9)Texas Rangers Under 87  I just saw that Tanner Scheppers, he of zero career starts, is getting the ball today.  The Rangers will be counting on the likes of Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, and Robbie Ross, whoever the Hell that is.  And while you could note that some of these guys are stopgaps, the folks they are filling in for aren’t the most confidence-inspiring group either, with Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis making a combined 2 starts last year.

8)Cincinnati Reds Under 84.5  I think Choo leaving is going to hurt quite a bit.  Outside of Votto and Bruce this lineup is not impressive.  The pitching staff is solid but like half their bullpen is starting the season on the disabled list.

7)Cleveland Indians Over 80.5  I know the Indians were probably more lucky than good last year, but this is still a solid team.  Good rotation, decent lineup, and Axford is looking like a strong rebound candidate.

6)Atlanta Braves Under 87.5  Very similar to the Texas injury situation.  They have a very good bullpen but you need people to get you there.  The lineup is good but it seems slightly awkward.  Heyward as leadoff and Chris Johnson hitting cleanup do not seem ideal.  Gattis better stay healthy and productive.

5)Chicago White Sox Under 76.5  The pitching staff isn’t awful, but they would need pretty much everyone in there to have career years in order to be a competitive team.  God help them if Chris Sale gets injured.  I like the addition of Adam Eaton, but like many of the other bats in this lineup, he is laregly an unproven commodity.

4)Boston Red Sox Under 88  Do you expect Buckholz to go 12-1 again?  Do you expect David Ortiz to match any of the power numbers he put up last season?  Do you expect Victorino to flirt with .300 again?  Nava, Carp, and Napoli to repeat their numbers?  Too often Middlebrooks and Bradley Jr will be exposed this year I believe.  And though I love his potential, Xander has not actually done anything yet.

3)Oakland A’s Under 88.5  I am not the world’s biggest Bartolo fan, but Oakland will miss him.  Think about this rotation, Colon gone, Parker injured, Griffin injured, Millone suspect, Gray unproven, Balfour gone.

2)Miami Marlins Over 69.5  The same phrase emerges when reading Miami previews.  They aren’t going to contend, but they will be improved.  I can believe it.

1)Toronto Blue Jays Over 80.5  If you recall, the Blue Jays were the hotness going into things last year.  In fact they were the odds on World Series favorites at one point around January.  The point with that is simply to note there is still a solid amount of talent on this team.  Enough to win half their games at any rate.

2014 MLB Win Totals

Here are my picks for the season.  Per usual, I had more problems getting these in a suitable order than picking the teams.  Last season I went 8 for 10, but missed on the top two teams in the confidence scoring but still managed to beat Pat anyway.  Here are my 10 for 2014:

10) Indians Over 80.5
9) Cubs Over 70
8) Phillies Under 76.5
7) Mariners Under 81
6) Braves Under 78.5
5) Reds Over 84.5
4) Athletics Under 88.5
3) Twins Under 70.5
2) Cardinals Over 91.5
1) Tigers Under 90

Dodgers would be on this list but it’s a bit dodgy to place them since they’ve banked two wins already.  I’m posting my NL draft writeup here at some point and one of the themes is being down on lots of the Dodgers individually (Puig & Kemp in particular), but collectively there aren’t many weak spots.  The same theme applies for the Cardinals so they’re listed for an Over instead.  Cleveland and the Cubs have fixed downsides which is helpful.  Usually overs on poor teams are challenging since those teams will rent their best players about to be out of contract, but other than Samardjia, I’m not sure who the Cubs could trade and I also expect some of their farm system talent to force their way up soon enough.  Phillies, Mariners and Braves are dealing with Age, Incompetence and Injuries respectively.  The Mariners will need Cano to cover up a host of issues including relying on an outfield that would probably be slightly improved defensively with me manning left field than any of the Hart/Morrision/Ackley white person trio. They have starting pitching injuries as well though not to the extent as the Braves losing theirs for the season instead of for a month or two.

Lean on the Padres (Cashner) at home for opening night hosting the Dodgers (Ryu). I’ll try and keep up with plays the next week or two before I disappear for the better part of April.

2014 MLB Regular Season Win Totals

They’re finally here.  Pat and I and any fellow degenerate gamblers can now spend the next 5 weeks poring over these numbers and placing our bets to be paid out (or not) six months later.  I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m much more useful at betting sports with lower point totals (soccer, hockey, baseball) than any of the others.  I’ll leave it for others to speculate why this might be the case.  It may be worthwhile to sort out your plays on these futures sooner rather than later before the juice creeps up and out of control.  Also note that the Dodgers and Diamondbacks start on the asinine date of March 22nd in Australia.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 81.5
Atlanta Braves – 87.5
Baltimore Orioles – 81.5
Boston Red Sox – 88
Chicago Cubs – 70
Chicago White Sox – 76.5
Cincinnati Reds – 84.5
Cleveland Indians – 80.5
Colorado Rockies – 76.5
Detroit Tigers – 90
Houston Astros – 62.5
Kansas City Royals – 82
Los Angeles Angels – 86.5
Los Angeles Dodgers – 92.5
Miami Marlins – 69.5
Milwaukee Brewers – 80
Minnesota Twins – 70.5
New York Mets – 74
New York Yankees – 87
Oakland Athletics – 88.5
Philadelphia Phillies – 76.5
Pittsburgh Pirates – 84.5
San Diego Padres – 79
San Francisco Giants – 86.5
Seattle Mariners – 81
St. Louis Cardinals – 91.5
Tampa Bay Rays – 88
Texas Rangers – 87
Toronto Blue Jays – 80.5
Washington Nationals – 89.5

MLB Summary 2013

Since the playoffs are over, it’s well past time I got this up and posted.  2013 was a good season for me and anyone who followed along, as we finished well on the plus side.  I definitely want to continue refining the picks machine for next season, but for a first run I’m very pleased with the results.  Totals were a highlight and these results would look even better had away teams been excluded entirely as they were only dropped in June and showed the only substantial loss of any subset.  I also took off most of September, hence the low number of plays there.

In fantasy, I managed two cashes, including a 2nd place in high stakes NL where I could have conceivably finished anywhere between 1st and 5th.  A late season pickup of LaTroy Hawkins and his 13 saves gave me a much needed boost in saves, but I ultimately ouldn’t overcome drafting both Dan Uggla and BJ Upton.

Lastly, in Pat and I’s MLB Totals, we both did much, much better than usual.  I had a chance at a perfect 10 for 10 but finished a few wins short on a couple of teams.  Here’s the breakdown:

First, note that with one more Tigers loss, Pat wins here.  Second, for anyone who bet the Dodgers over, it was a Miracle Cover as their rise from the ashes was well documented over the season, and they still only covered by one game.  I had real life money on Miami Over 63, but finished one win short of a push on that as injuries hurt an already MLB worst offense.  The Marlins run differential was similar to the Phillies and White Sox, but with runs being so rare, it’s hard to rack up enough wins.  I’d say lesson learned, but I knew the risks going in and still liked the bet.  For the other two season bets, Cleveland came up one win short in the Central at +1000, but Oakland cashed as they somewhat easily won the West at +445 with Texas collapsing in September.

We are definitely doing all of this again next season, though plan on slow going for me until May.

World Series of Prop Bets

Can you imagine if there was a World Series of Prop Bets?  What would the events be?  Will there be a podium where the national anthems are played for degenerate winners?  I’m competing for the USA in the “Parlay Relay”.  The possibilities could be endless.

As baseball’s World Series comes up, here are some prop bets I like:

Koji Uehara to win the World Series MVP (12-to-1)

Why not?

How many times will Shane Victorino get hit by a pitch? (Over/Under 1 @ Even)

We chop alot here, worth the gamble.

Matt Holliday more hits, runs, RBI than Dustin Pedroia (-115)

Pedroia is hurt with a bum thumb, struggling at the plate and on the field due to that injury, and in his career Holliday is 9-for-26 (.346) in 28 AB at Fenway with 3 doubles, 1 HR, 2 RBIs and 2 BBs at .577 slugging.

Will any player or manager get ejected in the World Series? (No @ -200)

That’s free money, IMO #backupthetruck

Our “Kudos of the Day” goes to Jim Leyland, who steps down as Tigers Manager after a long career in baseball.  I’ll always respect the man for his talent on only on the diamond, but also off of it…..like his keen sense of smoking butts in the dugout without the umpires noticing (OK, maybe not) and of course, his all-time hall of fame talent of saying thew word, “fuck”: