Category: Baseball
Friday
Sean’s in Vegas and I’m trying to break a losing streak by going to New Jersey. Life is weird. 1-1 last night for a miniscule profit as Houston won their 6th in a row and Seattle missed Robinson Cano who was scratched during warmups of a 7-5 loss. One total tonight as we are fading a very average Rays team and a Red Sox team with too many lefties against David Price. TB/BOS UNDER 7.5 Evens.
Vegas Thunder
First dispatch from Vegas and the WSOP here…..had a good cash game session last night, and when I checked into my room, the floor I was staying on, smelled like a rap concert. Good karma, indeed.
I’m going to take all of the profit I made from poker and put it on the Thunder -3 (now -3.5 and moving quick), as well as tease them with the over 207, all at -110.
I like the Thunder for 4 reasons:
1) They are the second best scoring team at home, behind the Warriors. They have won 22 out of their last 24 games at home. This means Ibaka doesn’t have to play much/well to make a difference like he will have to in a potential Game 7.
2) The Spurs are old and old teams tend to not do so well on the one day turnaround. The Celtics during the Garnett years were famous for this.
3) “The Game 6, down 3-2 at home” bet theory I have which has been pretty +EV for me over various sports in my betting years. They also got blown out last game. Teams usually respond with their backs against the wall here.
4) The NBA fix is in. The Heat/Pacers series has been a snorefest, with the only story off interest being Lance Stevenson affectionately blowing into LeBron’s ear. This has been a home-and-home series. The NBA needs that Game 7 revenue, and I smell either Duncan enemy Joey Crawford or Dick Bavetta getting called out of the bullpen here.
I also like the Mets +116 tonight against the Phillies. Their starting pitcher Montero can no where be as bad as this guy:
Funny part is, 50 Cent was reportedly throwing strikes in warm-ups, just like the Mets’ bullpen.
Thursday
Yesterday’s total was a loser after Milwaukee tacked on 4 runs in the 8th. Two more ugly plays today in an effort to stop the bleeding: Seattle and Houston both +104
Wednesday
No sides today but a rare indoor total, Baltimore/Milwaukee UNDER 8
Tuesday
Nothing doing yesterday and we lost spectacularly Sunday picking against Josh Beckett’s no hitter. An ugly game for us later tonight: Seattle (Elias) +116
Sunday Funday
Leaner on Pittsburgh last night was good. One play today and that’s Pittsburgh -103. Tampa is an option for anyone who wants to fade the Res Sox but I am passing since I don’t have time today to dig into the lineups and pitchers a bit more.
Saturday
Single play early today Oakland (Chavez) @ Toronto (Dickey) -101
UPDATE: Toronto was a relatively easy winner. Leaner and probably a pass on Pittsburgh because of the low total. Strasburg and Cole in that one.
Friday
Nothing again today. Lots of home favorites and accurate totals. Pitsburgh is the best of a non playable bunch.
Thursday
No plays yesterday and none again today. I missed Tampa with their 4pm start because I was doing actual work. It’s currently tied 0-0 and Tampa closed as a small favorite but would have been a play nonetheless. Lean on the Natinals/Pirates under 7.5. Will do better tomorrow, mostly because there are no day games.
Wednesday
1-1 yesterday for a small profit. We missed the day games and a lean on the Indians who won a ridiculous game today in the series finale against Detroit. Only leans and no plays tonight with Pittsburgh and Boston/Toronto under the best of the bunch. More tomorrow.