Author: lou
NFL Week 13 Picks
Just the one… Philadelphia @ Atlanta (-6). Good luck out there.
Thursday Links
“Henry’s handball, Tiger Wood’s Car Crash, Roger Federer losing … That’s it….I’m throwing my Gillete away” – TFLN
According to the NY Times, pro athletes are having a hard time selling their houses after changing teams so now they’re leasing to one another.
“I’ll never buy again,” said the veteran Nets guard Keyon Dooling, who rents the downtown Orlando condominium he bought in 2005 to a Magic player. “That was a learning experience. I’ll never buy again as far as where I’m playing. It’s not a good idea because you can never predict how long you’re going to be in a situation. You could be stuck with a piece of property that you never go to.”
Dooling’s teammate Courtney Lee, a rookie with the Magic last season, considered buying in the same condominium building before Dooling advised him against it. Good thing, since Lee is now with the Nets, where he rents on a month-to-month basis from the former Net Bostjan Nachbar, who is playing in Turkey.
I think that’s the first Bostjan Nachbar reference on this blog.
Tony Dungy getting some props.
Tony Dungy continues to provide understated excellence on Sunday Night Football. Somehow, he’s able to illustrate and tactfully disapprove better than any of the more animated commentators filling the airwaves. Instead of openly criticizing Bears QB Jay Cutler, he said, “I didn’t think anyone could overthrow Devin Hester.
Someone should do a study on why people do obvious studies.
Good stuff from the Football Outsiders game charting project. Some highlights:
Believe it or not, there was someone who played worse than Mr. Russell on offense, and his name is Chris Morris. While subbing for Samson Satele at center in the first three weeks, I nearly JaMarcussed my pants charting all his blown blocks and inability to handle a simple stunt. Either he’s getting bowled over on passes, or whiffing linebackers on runs. While he has returned to his natural position as a guard, every once in a while I’ll see him diving around in on my TV, only to fall to the ground while his man wraps up the running back.
Chris Spencer has pretty much proven that he’s not a starting-caliber NFL center. He’s a detriment as a run blocker on almost every play. The bad news is that Max Unger, drafted to be Spencer’s replacement, has started every game at guard and has looked even worse. The pinnacle of this duo was a play against Dallas when Unger and Spencer tried to double-team Jay Ratliff. Ratliff not only pushed the pair into the backfield, he actually put Spencer on his back.
When Jamarcus Russell isn’t being used a part of the English language, he’s busy being compared to an airplane.
Jamarcused? Jamarcian?
Some good stories on recently passed Wizards owner Abe Pollin.
The online dating site OKCupid has started a blog that delves into the statistics of online daters. I read the whole thing in one sitting. Captivating for a superdork like me.
Site-wide, two-thirds of male messages go to the best-looking third of women. So basically, guys are fighting each other 2-for-1 for the absolute best-rated females, while plenty of potentially charming, even cute, girls go unwritten.
The medical term for this is male pattern madness.
…
As you can see from the gray line, women rate an incredible 80% of guys as worse-looking than medium. Very harsh. On the other hand, when it comes to actual messaging, women shift their expectations only just slightly ahead of the curve, which is a healthier pattern than guys’ pursuing the all-but-unattainable. But with the basic ratings so out-of-whack, the two curves together suggest some strange possibilities for the female thought process, the most salient of which is that the average-looking woman has convinced herself that the vast majority of males aren’t good enough for her, but she then goes right out and messages them anyway.
Moving on…
Old data on NFL home underdogs late in the season, but interesting.
Lastly, the World Cup draw is tomorrow and the US, along with Mexico, basically got screwed.
EDIT: AWESOME draw for us.
Random NFL Notes
Some NFL goodness this Wednesday…
What’s wrong with Jay Cutler & the Bears?
“At the end of the day, every single thing that’s going on with Chicago’s offense, and I haven’t even mentioned a running game that is probably also the worst in the NFL, everything is conspiring against Cutler. So now you’ve got a decision to make as an offense. Do you try to play the game to throw four yard passes, three-step drops, five-step drops, just so he doesn’t throw interceptions?”
It was difficult to know what to make of Cutler’s mechanics early on [versus the Vikings Sunday]– the guy’s obviously talented enough to complete quick outs — but I was astonished to see Pace get no help with Allen on any of those plays. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner managed to combine the protection leakage of wide sets with the inflexible non-production of a quick-screen-only offense. It was mind-blowing.
The one good thing to come out of Bobby Petrino’s “tenure” with the Falcons was bringing in Louisville alum Chris Redman at QB.
“I remember walking into a machinery company, CSS, and trying to sell them insurance,” Redman recalled Monday. “I was wearing a suit, and I walked into the lobby hoping they’d recognize me – sometimes people would, and sometimes they wouldn’t, which made it even more awkward. I remember thinking, ‘Wow. What am I doing?’ Talk about a humbling feeling. As many times as I’d complained about football practice, this was a real job and a real complaint.”
Thanks to an unlikely opportunity and his ability to parlay it into a shocking renaissance, Redman, 32, is back in a far more comfortable environment. Two years after signing with the Falcons following the short and ill-fated pro stint by Bobby Petrino, Redman’s offensive coordinator at Louisville in ’98, the quarterback is playing a key role in the team’s push for a second consecutive playoff berth.
Some fantastic breakdown of the Saints Monday night game by NFP’s Matt Bowen. (Click both links)
New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is known as a pressure coach, but he called this game with coverage principles in mind — often rushing only three and dropping eight into coverage when the Pats put Brady in the shotgun on passing situations. And that’s a standard against Tom Brady and the Patriots, but what Williams played on the back end usually isn’t. Instead of dropping eight and playing Cover 2 — which most teams do against New England to play a safety over the top of Randy Moss on the numbers — Williams used man coverage principles. Most often, the Saints played a version of “Cover 1 Robber,” where FS Darren Sharper played the deep middle of the field, and either a linebacker or an extra defensive back played a “rover” position — sitting 10 yards deep in between the hashes. What this did was allow the Saints to play man coverage with outside leverage — forcing everything to the middle of the field — and allowing Mike McKenzie to pick off Brady by jumping the underneath route. Because he had the help to do it with the “rover” sitting 10 yards off of the ball.
In Gregg Williams’ defense down in New Orleans, or any defense in this league that plays man-to-man coverage in the backend, the corners are taught, instructed and expected to play with the techniques that allow this defense to work.
In McKenzie’s case on Monday, he played a lot of “off-man” coverage, where he aligned at a depth of 7-yards, aligned on the receiver’s outside shoulder, with his feet planted in a football position. The reason for the outside leverage is due to the safety help in the middle of the field. To give you a different perspective, in any type of Cover 0 alignment (no safety help) McKenzie would align in the inside shoulder of the receiver, using the sideline, or the boundary, as his extra defender.
Playing “off-man” coverage is the toughest thing for any defender in the NFL, much harder than aligned in a press position, where the corner can get his hands on the receiver and mirror his hips off of the line of scrimmage.
But, in both cases on Monday night, McKenzie used his flat-foot techniques and his pre-snap keys to make two big plays in the game on a slant route and on the fourth-down out route he broke up while defending Randy Moss.
NFL Week 13 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
0-0 last week for 0.00 units which makes week 12 my 4th best of the season. Sad but true. Back to the usual posting schedule this week.
Stats of the Week
1) The New Orleans Saints are averaging 37 points/game this season and are on pace to barely exceed New England’s 2007 record of 589 points. They lead the NFL with 22 interceptions; FS Darren Sharper got his 8th Monday night.
2) Drew Brees is averaging over 9 yards per pass attempt this season. Only 23 other quarterbacks have ever averaged 9 yards or more per attempt in a season, and half of them are in the Hall of Fame.
3) Cleveland’s Brady Quinn was 15/34 for 100 yards against the Bengals on Sunday. 2.94 yards/pass attempt.
4) St. Louis’s Steven Jackson leads the NFL with 238 carries. Since 1970, the league’s leading ball carrier has played for a team with a losing record just six times.
5) The Jacksonville Jaguars lost their two west coast games this season by a combined score of 61-3. No team does close wins and blowout losses quite like the Jaguars.
6) New England’s Wes Welker leads the league with 98.4 receiving yards per game.
7) Prior toVince Young’s drive, Tennessee had gained 433 yards of offense on the day. They moved the ball effectively all game and have averaged 29 points since the bye week/Vince Young took over. Sadly, their odds of making the playoffs are not very good.
8) Tennessee has covered every game in their 5 game win streak. They visit Indy(-6.5) Sunday.
9) In the who cares department, Peyton Manning leads the NFL in Pro-Bowl balloting through week 12. The Colts set an NFL record Sunday, winning 11 games for the 7th season in a row.
10) Denver(-4.5) is in Kansas City on Sunday where they have won 7 of their last 8 games. The one loss was last season when the Chiefs were 2-14.
Early Leans
Phhiladelphia @ Atlanta (+6)
NFL Week 12 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
Stat #1: I fail at NFL this year. Anyone picking exactly opposite of me this season would be +34 units through 11 weeks which has to be some kind of record. I’m leaning toward being thankful I’m not losing more money and not even betting this week. And that’s before looking at the lines.
2. Since starting 6-0 the Denver Broncos have scored 37 points.
2b. The Cleveland Browns scored 37 points on Sunday. They had zero turnovers for the first time in a year.
3. The Cleveland Browns last 16 games by points scored (obviously going back to last season): 6, 6, 9, 10, 0, 0, 20, 6, 3, 20, 6, 14, 3, 6, 0, 37
4. Three teams are unbeaten on the road this season, The 10-0 Saints and Colts and the 7-3 Arizona Cardinals.
4b. Arizona’s Tim Hightower is 2nd in the NFL in receptions by a running back (47) behind Ray Rice (56).
5. The New Orleans Saints lead all NFL defenses in takeaways with 29. The next closest team is the Eagles with 23. This will be mentioned approximately a dozen times during Monday night’s Pats-Saints game.
6. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 6-4 despite having a league low 10 sacks. Denver Broncos DE Elvis Dumervil leads the NFL with 12.
7. I imagine this is similar for all quarterbacks, but Jay Cutler for his career is 13-23 when throwing an interception and 8-4 when he does not. With the Bears, those numbers are 2-6 and 2-0 respectively. Cutler has thrown at least one pick in his last six games, including pulling off a Dirty Sanchez against San Francisco two weeks back. He leads the NFL with 18 INTs on the season.
8. Vikings QB Brett Favre has thrown only 3 interceptions all season. For his career, Favre averages an INT for every 33 pass attempts. This season, that ratio is 1 for every 103.
9. The Pittsburgh Steelers had 515 total yards on offense in their loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
10. Buffalo’s Terrell Owens had 281 yards receiving in his first 8 games as a Bill. He’s doubled that total in his last two games. This play had a lot to do with it:
2009 NFL Week 11 & UFC 106 Picks
Go here for Eric Foster’s UFC picks and take whatever he says that strikes your fancy. He is better at handicapping MMA than you or me.
I’m going big and/or home this week on my NFL picks. Lots of bad teams getting too many points.
Seattle +11 @ Minnesota
Atlanta @ NY Giants -6 (now at 6.5 or 7)
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay +11
NY Jets +10.5 @ New England
Washington +11 @ Dallas
Indy @ Baltimore +1.5 and Tennessee @ Houston -4.5 are going to be game time decisions.
Good luck out there.
EDIT: Screw the 1.5 point line, Baltimore/Indy OVER 44.
Thursday Links
The usual linkage including yet another Lady GaGa cover.
As everyone reading this knows, Bills coach Dick Jauron was fired this week. The best explanation as to why came from ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook:
Prior to kickoff [versus Tennessee], Rich Gannon of CBS asked Dick “Cheerio, Chaps” Jauron what Buffalo worked on during the bye. Cheerio Chaps replied he spent two weeks studying film and concluded there was nothing wrong with Buffalo’s strategy, “We just need to improve our execution.” Coaches love to blame “execution,” because this is the same as saying, “The coaches are doing everything right; the players need to perform better.” There’s nothing wrong with our strategy! After spending two weeks supposedly improving execution, Buffalo threw two interceptions returned for touchdowns.
Even the officials fell asleep during Monday night’s Browns-Ravens game.
France needed a miracle cover to beat Ireland for one of the final World Cup places on Wednesday. The World Cup odds prior to the December 4th draw are here.
Sticking with soccer, Baseball Prospectus‘s Nate Silver has helped create a soccer power index ranking the top 100 international teams in the world. It will be interesting to see what gambling opportunities this will uncover for the World Cup.
More than you probably ever wanted to know about how pinball machines are rigged.
The All-Inclusive All-You-Can-Eat Buffet Guide
Lastly, Lady Gaga covers are better at the internet than you.
NFL Week 11 Early Leans & Stats of the Week
Stats of the Week
1. The New Orleans Saints are 9-0 for the first time in team history.
2. The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-0 on the road and 5-0 in their division
3. Jay Cutler has thrown 17 interceptions on the year, leading the NFL.
4. The Cleveland Browns and the Oakland Raiders each have scored 7 touchdowns this season. 9 individual players have 8 touchdowns or more. Mike Tirico just described the Browns as “remarkably inept.”
5. As mentioned below, the Chiefs and Raiders were a combined 3 for 31 on third down Sunday.
6. There are two non-quarterbacks with at least one rushing and one passing TD this season. One is obvious, the Dolphins’ Ronnie Brown. The other? Hunter the Punter.
7. With his two scores against Indianapolis Sunday night, Randy Moss (142) passed Terrell Owens (140) in career receiving touchdowns. Moss is second on the all-time list behind only Jerry Rice.
8. Tampa Bay’s newest kicker Connor Barth kicked three field goals of 50+ yards Sunday, only the 4th player in league history to do so.
9. Philadelphia completely gave up trying to run the ball against the Chargers. Donovan McNabb’s 450 yards passing Sunday on 55 attempts were both NFL single game season highs.
10. Of the 16 games in week 11, half of them have a spread of 9 points or higher.
Early Leans
Atlanta @ NY Giants -6
All of the home underdogs and the Redskins (-11 +11 @ Dallas) will get a long look this week.
Monday Notes
Stats & early leans coming tonight/tomorrow. Couple of quick things for now:
It turns out Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio told Maurice Jones-Drew to take a knee at the one yard line with under two minutes remaining against the Jets Sunday, leading to a game winning field goal by Josh Scobee. Jones-Drew was cool enough to apologize anyway:
“Sorry to my fantasy owners,” said Jones-Drew of stopping at the Jets’ 1-yard line with 1:48 left. “They told me to get as close as I can and take a knee.”
Coach Jack Del Rio explained his unusual strategy, which ultimately left Scobee with a point-blank kick from the middle of the field, “We’ve just got to make an extra point. I don’t want to give them a chance to return the kick, hit a fluke play or anything like that.
“I decided that as soon as we got down there, and the guys handled it real well.”
The win locked up the Hampton Cup for the Jaguars for the second time in a row. Who knew this was a rivalry game?
Following up with Joe Posnanski, the Chiefs/Raiders game was underwhelming. Shane Lechler punted 11 times for the Raiders, which sounds like it should be some kind of record, but isn’t.
Whatever the word, it precisely describes the feeling I have now after watching the remarkably bad Chiefs-Raiders football game. The Chiefs won the game 16-10, and in many ways the game had absolutely everything you could want from a bad football game. The Raiders went 2-of-16 on third down and they had the BETTER third-down conversion ratio (the Chiefs converted one of 15). There were 17 punts, five turnovers, 15 penalties, two missed field goals, three quarterbacks crashing into running backs, one quarterback who got yanked, another who got yelled at on numerous occasions, numerous easily-identifiable swear words shouted by coaches, a struggling officiating crew* and, quite literally, countless dropped passes.
Lastly, there’s this old youtube clip of Texans WR David Anderson impersonating Ron Jaworski. “He talks in three word sentences. He has like a pause which you’d think would be a period or a comma which really makes no sense.”
2009 NFL Week 10 Picks
Posted late to save everyone the trouble:
Jacksonville (+7) @ NY Jets
Denver @ Washington (+4)
New England (+3) @ Indianapolis
Good luck out there today.
