Author: lou
Monday
Everything lost on Saturday and there were no plays on Sunday. 6-5 +2.61 on baseball for the season. My soccer feed is broken at the moment but the total is +4u.
Two leans today at least one of which will likely be a play. Seattle with Saunders and Miami with Fernandez. Thankfully no games until 7 EDT tonight. Will update closer to game time. Big game for the Villa today and an NL Superdork update coming tomorrow.
EDIT: Miami (Fernandez) +140 at home to Mets (Harvey)
Seattle (Saunders) +105 at home to Baltimore (Britton)
Saturday
We won our single live wager yesterday as the Padres won 2-1 at home to SF. KC & Cleveland were rained out and that bet is rolling over to today with the same pitching matchup at +146 instead of +145. The KC soccer bet from yesterday is tonight as well. Adding another baseball play tonight with the Fish at home to the Cubs.
Chicago(Wood) @ Miami (Sanabia) +110
I like the thinking on Pat’s Padres bet today, but am not a fan of Stults or most lefties against the Giants. Zito is also an extreme flyballer, so a big park like San Diego’s plays much more to his strength.
Weekend Plays
We won our NFL Draft under, a life first for me, with 12 SEC players taken. Player #12 didn’t go until the 32nd pick so our under 13 was good. It was looking difficult for there to be 14 so while there was a risk of a push, it didn’t seem likely to go over. It also turned out that under two QBs was a very solid play as maybe NFL teams are getting smarter and not taking crappy players at QB high in the draft anymore.
In baseball, I am now sure at this point that my filters are too stringent so I will tinker with the system setup some more. Our lean last night in Cahill won but went from -130 to -135 before start time. Two plays today:
Cleveland +145 @ KC (Kazmir/Santana)
SF @ SD Even (Lincecum/Cashner)
I will be away on Saturday so likely no plays over the weekend, but one in MLS I will post early and that is San Jose +150 away to Chivas.
Debating the under on DC/Columbus even though it is -150.
Blah
Not much happening this week and it’s been busy at work as well. I’ve missed a few bets with the day games and nothing at night has looked any good at all. The one bet I would have made was on the Cubs a few days back when they lost in 13. Still it’s better to not do anything than to do something monetarily harmful, so I’m not going to be bothered too much. I kind of like Cahill for Arizona tonight but need to see lineups and the public numbers before betting.
One play on the NFL Draft tonight
Total SEC Players Picked in 1st Round Under 13 -250 2u
There should be an MLS play somewhere for Saturday.
Sunday
We went 2-1 on our MLS plays last night. The home favorites both won and Chicago got a late winner to beat Columbus 1-0. While it’s a pretty solid rule to never bet on a draw in soccer, I nearly did so on this Columbus Chicago game. The draw was around +225 and Columbus to win was around +210 so I took the +120 that pushed on the tie instead. I will need to revisit draw odds on these MLS games at some point since they are so low scoring. One game over 2.5 out of six last night.
Nothing in MLB again today. Two leans in Miami and Seattle both away, but I am short on time and will pass on both. Justin Grimm is starting for Texas today and while he’s a little old for a prospect, my intuition is telling me he’ll be just fine in the Rangers rotation.
MLS Saturday
We won our MLB wager yesterday as Pittsburgh cruised 6-0 leading to Braves Journal asking the following on the game thread:
Was there a game tonight? Did the Braves know?
5-4 on the season so far for +2.62u. Nothing looks good today in MLB and there are three games already underway. Vernon Wells has 5 home runs on the season for those who care.
Three plays in MLS today however and we will see how they do.
Columbus +120 No Draw @Chicago
RSL -167 vs. Chivas
Dallas -150 vs. Vancouver
Good luck out there today.
No Plays = No Posts
One play today Pittsburgh +108 W. Rodriguez at home to the Bravos & Tim Hudson. Debating Padres and Marlins both near +200 on the road.
Fun question from trivia the other night. Name all the pitchers who spent time in the Mets organization have thrown a perfect game.
Haven’t really gotten into weekend soccer yet but will update with any plays. Highlight of the weekend in MLS is the first ever Cannabis Cup as Seattle visits Denver. Be safe ya’ll.
Tuesday
Keeping things short today. One play tonight Milwaukee (Peralta) at home to SF (Zito).
Sunday
We nearly won two and in a row with the Astros late last night, but the bullpen blew a lead in the 8th & 9th to lose 5-4. Also had a bit of luck in not finding a good price on the Cubs as they lost 3-2. The idea of taking all of these plus odds plays is to find the ones that are loser to 50:50 propositions and take the weighted coin flip as often as possible. There are some 2,000+ games each season to pick from so a large volume of smaller bets, the exact opposite of most other sports, is the preferred method. This is my first season tracking at length so we will see how it goes, but I assure you my plays are not very large.
Also won the MLS bet this week as Dallas beat LA 1-0 with a late goal. There were two missed penalties and a red card in the 2nd half, so there was a bit of luck here but the bet was a good one as there were zero shots on target by either team in what I’m sure was a thrilling first half.
Two leans that are most likely passes today with Oakland and Miami. I am really tempted to take the biggest line of the Astros series again today at +191 with Humber but there’s not much else there without seeing lineups and CJ Wilson will probably strike out 10-12. Sunday is especially a tricky day to bet baseball with the multitude of regulars that get the day off. Bobby Cox back in the day used to rest nearly half the starting lineup and hope the pitching would hold. If Ned Yost is doing something similar, I’ll bet on failure instead.
Saturday
2 for 2 on Friday and I wanted to repeat both bets today but cannot get a good price anywhere on the Cubs. Pinnacle has +116 but the best I can get is +101. Passing there because of the price difference but taking Houston again tonight with Harrell at Anaheim +161.
