Author: lou
MLB Tuesday June 4th
Back in degen land today where Sean has been doing an exceptional job of keeping this place running while baseball has been empty and sad the last few days. No plays either Sunday or yesterday, hence the radio silence. Sean’s now 1-1 in NBA on the year with the big win last night. :)
Today in MLB has a full slate of games with 13 of the 15 being home favorites. We are taking the only non-Astros of the home underdog bunch and playing Milwaukee (Lohse) -105 at home to Oakland (Griffin). This price started at +104 so we’re counting it there. Yes I’m cheating. A little.
One total tonight as well and it’s Toronto @ San Francisco U7.5.
Our MLB note today comes from Baltimore where Nate McClouth has not only fixed whatever was broken with himself a couple of seasons ago, but has developed into a base stealer extraordinaire. He’s second in the AL in stolen bases with 19 behind only Jacoby Ellsbury and has been caught only once, a rate that even Carlos Beltran would be proud of. Baltimore as a team is running a lot more this season and is 3rd in MLB in both steals and percentage. It makes me wonder if steals need to be projected on a team level first and at an individual level second.
Monthly NL Superdork update coming tomorrow.
MLB End of May
Last post of the month and we are 12-12 for May so tonight will determine if we only win at life, or if we win at baseball too. 12-12 +0.88 for May for those keeping track. We won our under last night as most of the scoring happened late but stopped at 7 runs on our U7.5. Only one play today and that is in Minnesota where we are taking Pelfrey +113 at home to the Mariners and Iwakuma.
No soccer plays in a blah weekend. It’s only MLS and the odd International until August. Likely away tomorrow & hungover on Sunday so there may not be much action until next week.
Good luck out there.
Thursday
A mediocre May is coming to an end here with one total and no sides likely today. Updates later per usual.
The Kansas City Royals, who Pat and I both have down for Over 77.5, have lost 8 in a row and have hit two home runs as a team since May 15th. Cubs pitchers have hit three home runs during this timeframe, which is kind of like having Manchester United’s goalkeepers outscore QPR over a month. Joe Posnanski has more on this somewhat historic ineptitude.
World Cup qualifiers coming up next week after this slate of useless friendlies and last round of games in La Liga.
UPDATE 1: Make it Cubs pitchers 4 Royals 2. Travis Wood with the Grand Slam.
UPDATE 2: Marlins/Rays Under 7.5 -105 Nolasco v. Colome
Friday
Nothing to report yesterday as we had no plays on a light schedule. Lots of leans today but it’s later in the afternoon and we only have one confirmed play so far which is Seattle at home with Saunders +102 hosting Texas (Grimm). Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Jays and Red Sox look to be the remainder of today’s options.
Most likely taking the early part of next week off, so Pat will have the place to himself for a few days. Soccer is looking like a bust for the weekend as I can’t get anything I like for close to the Pinnacle lines. Espanyol to draw or win versus Barcelona is the primary hope for a play this weekend.
SATURDAY EDIT: Mariners lost last night. One play today: Bravos (Minor) @ Mets (Gee) +140
MLS Toronto No Draw +200
Thirsty Thursday
The Cubs are hot on the heels of the Fire for worst offense in Chicago, having passed the White Sox in the standings last night in Pittsburgh. Four hits and zero runs were all the support offered to Samardjia, who was excellent and lost again. I need to remember that being nitty with the lines is sometimes a good thing as it saved a losing bet in this case. Francisco Liriano (yep, exactly who you think it is) got the win and is somehow 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in three starts this season for the Pirates, who as mentioned last night are two games out of first place in the Central.
Only 5 games today in MLB, and Minnesota is the closest thing to a lean today and will most likely be a pass.
I was working on Power Rankings for MLS yesterday and realized when compiling just how much parity exists. Leagues without relegation, and that includes all American sports leagues, really do reward mediocrity. They are an extension of corporate America where turning up is the most important attribute. We have seen this up close with New England the last 7-8 years. Since they can’t be relegated, there is no reason to actively improve the team. And since as Jeff Maurer says, “The MLS playoffs are like Arizona State: You have to screw up really badly to not get in,” regular season games lack urgency as well. Throw in the fact that MLS plays right through international weeks where teams will be without their best players who are away on duty and it’s remarkably clear why EPL interest exponentially exceeds that of MLS.
The MLS lines this week are far too generous to some of these mediocre to poor teams who happen to be hosting teams of the same calibre. New England at home to Toronto is the most egregious but Colorado hosting Chivas at -160 is bad too. I really need to find another book to make any plays however as mine is around 20 points off Pinnacle on nearly everything. La Liga nonsense and any MLS plays to be posted Saturday.
Wednesday
Sloppy day yesterday as we were 0-3 on sides with our total the only win. We are a solid 2-0 on totals now for the season. :) Miami removed Fernandez after just 5 innings and 87 pitches and the middle relievers promptly blew the game open. The Mets and Padres games were never close. Our favorite gambling team the Cubs are the best bet for a play so far today with Samardjia in Pittsburgh to face Liriano, but my book is currently 10+ points off the Pinnacle line.
Updates later if at all.
Tuesday
Life and work precluded an update yesterday and it was costly, as we would have had a number of plays most of which were winners last night. I didn’t see final numbers off my sheet, but San Diego, Houston, Miami, Milwaukee and the White Sox were all up there and went 4-1 combined. San Diego is on again today and we’ll see if we can get a decent line. I’ll try and hop back on in a few hours with any plays.
UPDATE:
I am turning into Pat here. Four plays tonight…
Cincinnati (Leake) @ Mets (Niese) EVEN
Philadelphia (Cloyd) @ Miami (Fernandez) -105
St. Louis (Wainwright) @ San Diego (Volquez +134
One total: Detroit (Scherzer) @ Cleveland (Kluber) u9 -110
MLB Monday
Our leans for which we could find no acceptable lines went 3-1 on Sunday and considering they were mostly slight favorites, that’s not really a surprise. Lots of leans again today and we should be able to find something out of this bunch. Mets. Brewers, Rockies, Padres, O’s, Astors and White Sox all make the short list today.
1-1 in sketchy Spanish soccer yesterday for anyone following along as Deportivo won while Zaragoza set three points on fire. 10-12 +9.04 heading into the summer.
Updates later this afternoon.
Sunday
3-0 in baseball and 1-2 in soccer makes for a mediocre Saturday. I really need to remember that the difference between these MLS teams is not as great as other leagues. Seattle cruised while Columbus was fine despite missing a pair of defensive starters. In baseball, Texas cruised to another win behind Mitch Moreland who may be the hottest hitter in baseball at the moment. San Diego beat Washington 2-1 and the Natinals may have more problems against lefties until Jason Werth comes back with Ramos already back on the DL as well. I’ve been look for a spot to fade the Yankees against left handed starters as well, but they also roughed up Buehrle the other night.
As promised, some La Liga nonsense as we are taking Zaragoza and Deportivo at home today at -111 and -143 respectively. These are both being hedged with draw bets just like the Atletico game to cover the primary wager. If I were getting the Pinnacle prices on Newcastle I’d consider taking them at home to Arsenal today, but I’m 50 points off and will pass. This is good news for Spurs as Newcastle tend to get smushed whenever I take them.
Baseball leans this morning are on San Diego, Colorado, Minnesota and Cleveland though there is a good chance of there being no plays because I am again not happy with my lines versus the Pinnacle ones. Not willing to go 10 points worse than Pinnacle on any of these at the moment. Updates later per usual and I’ll sort out my spreadsheets to figure out where we are on soccer for the season.
Soccer Saturday
We got a much needed draw/win with Atletico yesterday in another wonderful cup final. Finals are often tense and dour affairs, but the FA, Euro and now Spanish Cup have been 2.5 for 3 in really entertaining games. One can only hope the Champions League final is equally fun. As I was telling Sean, the final count from yesterday was 3 goals, 14 cautions, two red cards (I forgot about Gabi’s in the 125th), three shots off a post, two really top class saves from Courtois, a goal-line clearance from Juanfran, one manager ejection and the benches cleared twice. Just a wonderful, entertaining game.
Doble oportunidad para el Real Madrid by DaniDV
Baseball split yesterday so we are still scuffling around for May. 7-8 -0.41
Three baseball plays on a busy day today:
Natinals (Zimmerman) @ Padres (Stults) +117
Rays (Hernandez) -110 @ Orioles (Jurrjens)
Tigers (Sanchez) @ Rangers (Grimm) +110
Also three MLS Plays this afternoon and evening
Columbus @ Toronto Over 2.5 +120
Colorado @ San Jose -140
Dallas @ Seattle -105
La Liga nonsense tomorrow.
