Author: lou
On Hiatus
Back on or around May 1. I leave you all with MC’s favorite team, The Columbus Blue Jackets +200 or so to defeat Pittsburgh in Round 1.
Wednesday
Detroit was an easy winner yesterday. We are continuing to fade the Hawks again today taking Boston +7.5. No hockey again but one baseball option with the dodgers late.
Tuesday
Nothing yesterday and a loser Sunday since our last update. Nothing doing again in NHL and MLB, but there is one NBA play tonight: Detroit +7 @ Atlanta.
Saturday
Winners all around yesterday. Wizards won outright and both the Oilers and Predators were winners in the late games. Apologies for getting my play up 5 minutes or so before whatever the euphemism is for starting a hockey game. One early play this afternoon and that’s Philadelphia +165 @ Boston. I am not a fan betting against this year’s Bruins side, but they seem to be resting up for the playoffs with the #1 seed all but confirmed. Winnipeg tonight is an option for the aggressive folks at Toronto.
In baseball, Mets are a lean and I am passing. Dodgers are showing up right now, which is probably a mistake, as well as Oakland both at 4:00.
Friday
We were all winners yesterday as Columbus shutout Philadelphia 2-0. I am really, really, really hoping Columbus gets drawn against Pittsburgh in the playoffs as that would give us a chance to repeat our Montreal/Washington heroics from a few years back. They’ll probably get Boston though who is much more suited to a long playoff run. 5-3 +3.58 on Columbus alone this season.
Mets, Jays and Astros are on the MLB shortlist as well as the away teams late in NHL, Nashville and Edmonton. Nothing confirmed yet so it may be an empty day. Edmonton is interesting as they are in Phoenix who have suddenly been awful and unable to score. Edmonton is just awful all around so it may be a decent gamble. Not sure if it will come to pass, but I’m always happy to encourage others to try :)
Lastly, the White Sox are currently in action and Tyler Flowers, White Sox catcher and career .206 hitter, is 2 for 2 so far following his 4 for 4 performance yesterday against the Twins. The Twins had a rare performance of their own yesterday with Worcester Tornado alum Chris Colabello getting 6 RBIs.
Updates if at all to be posted before gametime.
UPDATE: Some NBA! Wizards +5
UPDATE2: Nashville for +165
Thursday
Mets were a loser last night by a combination of scoring only 1 run and Bartolo Colon giving up a HR to the opposing pitcher with two strikes in the 5th. No day game action but we have a possible play on the Astros again who are going for the sweep against the Yankees. One hockey play tonight on our favorite team, Columbus +128.
Wednesday
Our single play yesterday was a winner as the Astros cruised in a 6-2 win. Houston is on the lean list today along one actual play and that is the Mets (Colon) +116. No hockey because back-to-backs ruin everything.
One random baseball thought to share today and it’s on the Cubs opening day lineup which was just filled with replacement level dreck. It looks much better against a righty tonight (though still not good). Something to be monitored the first few weeks especially before the inevitable callups begin that should improve things.
Tuesday
It was a rough Monday in both sports as all of our plays and potential plays were close losers. In baseball, our lean on the Mets and play on the Diamondbacks both lost as closers Parnell and Reed both blew saves. Hockey was not any better as Carolina lost in a shootout. Winnipeg turned into the most borderline of plays that I didn’t stick around to check on at 10 local time. It would have been a good play/poor result as Winnipeg got up to a 4-0 lead in the 2nd before setting the game on fire and losing in OT 5-4
No day baseball so everything is tonight. Typical light schedule on day 2 of the MLB season (day 11 using NCAA terminology).
One play tonight Yankees (Sabathia) @ Astros (Feldman) +132. Padres are a lean since the total is under 7. Hockey has Carolina and Florida showing as the only options and both played and lost last night.
Opening Day
It’s my favorite day of the year and effectively starts the new year For me so hooray to that. 1-0 on our leans with San Diego’s win and we have another leaner with the Mets and Gee hosting the Natinals. Possible play on Arizona tonight. Hockey later as well.
Just as a reminder that we will have plays on home teams underdogs up to +200 only with some other criteria. Unlike other sports baseball has a tangible benefit to batting last which benefits home teams in addition to the usual referee and travel biases that cover all sports. More on this as time allows…
UPDATE: All 4 away hockey games qualify for leans though there is only one play and that is Carolina EVEN at Ottawa. One baseball game as well Arizona +111
2014 MLB Win Totals
Here are my picks for the season. Per usual, I had more problems getting these in a suitable order than picking the teams. Last season I went 8 for 10, but missed on the top two teams in the confidence scoring but still managed to beat Pat anyway. Here are my 10 for 2014:
10) Indians Over 80.5
9) Cubs Over 70
8) Phillies Under 76.5
7) Mariners Under 81
6) Braves Under 78.5
5) Reds Over 84.5
4) Athletics Under 88.5
3) Twins Under 70.5
2) Cardinals Over 91.5
1) Tigers Under 90
Dodgers would be on this list but it’s a bit dodgy to place them since they’ve banked two wins already. I’m posting my NL draft writeup here at some point and one of the themes is being down on lots of the Dodgers individually (Puig & Kemp in particular), but collectively there aren’t many weak spots. The same theme applies for the Cardinals so they’re listed for an Over instead. Cleveland and the Cubs have fixed downsides which is helpful. Usually overs on poor teams are challenging since those teams will rent their best players about to be out of contract, but other than Samardjia, I’m not sure who the Cubs could trade and I also expect some of their farm system talent to force their way up soon enough. Phillies, Mariners and Braves are dealing with Age, Incompetence and Injuries respectively. The Mariners will need Cano to cover up a host of issues including relying on an outfield that would probably be slightly improved defensively with me manning left field than any of the Hart/Morrision/Ackley white person trio. They have starting pitching injuries as well though not to the extent as the Braves losing theirs for the season instead of for a month or two.
Lean on the Padres (Cashner) at home for opening night hosting the Dodgers (Ryu). I’ll try and keep up with plays the next week or two before I disappear for the better part of April.
