Author: lou
Friday
No play last night on the Marlins due to the low total. I suspect but can’t prove that taking the Under for these low scoring pitching affairs is ultimately profitable in general, and the same with the Over 10s and above. One play tonight:
Toronto (Happ) @ Houston (McHugh) -107
Thursday
Texas was also a winner last night getting us back on the plus side for the first time in a while. More days like yesterday please. Nothing doing in the day games but take note of any late lineup changes with all of the trade deadline happenings today. One game to note this evening is Cincinnati at Miami. The Reds offense and win loss record has entered a death spiral and they are relying almost solely on their pitching at the moment. Early betting numbers look good for the fish so far. Updates later per usual.
Wednesday
Bad beat loser last night and seeing as I am a sucker for more punishment we are running the game back again today: Oakland (Hammel) @ Houston (Keuchel) +126
UPDATE: Houston an easy winner 8-1. Red Sox are tempting but I will go with a much uglier game for the night session: Yankees (Kuroda) @ Rangers (Lewis) +125
Tuesday
As mentioned yesterday, I am looking to get onto Boston for the last half of the season. Today is a good but not great spot and I am going to lean juuuust on the side of passing. But I wouldn’t begrudge anyone who wanted to take them at home tonight versus Toronto. One team I’m generally looking to fade is Oakland and it starts tonight: Oakland (Samardjia) @ Houston (Feldman) +177
Monday
No plays today and none over the weekend. I’m not intentionally tightening up, there just hasn’t been very much to see the past few days. There should be some weird line moves the next few days in course with the trade deadline on Thursday. One counterpoint to Sean, I actually like the Red Sox a lot over the next few months as it’s the teams that underperform (especially for baseball when they are at home) that make for the best plays.
Friday
Two absolutely, not even close losers yesterday. Even my unposted WNBA tilt pick lost (Storm -4). No plays today, will try and get back on the wagon this weekend.
Thursday
Toronto was a winner yesterday 6-4 as our mediocre season continues. We’re like the Royals only less depressing. Two plays:
Indians (Kluber) @ Royals (Duffy) OVER 7 -110
Padres (Ross) @ Cubs (Jackson) +114
Wednesday
Our famed totals engine failed us badly yesterday. I don’t think I’ve ever been off by that much since I’ve been running totals the past few years so it may be time to re-evaluate. Phillies lost in 14 in a good bet/bad result as Papelbon blew a save on a Posey HR. One play tonight:
Boston (Buchholz) @ Toronto (Dickey) -103
Late Posting
Phillies +106 Pit/LA under 8.5
Monday
Yankees were a winner yesterday 3-2. 1-0 since the break :) Two plays tonight, both of which look horrifying:
Cleveland (House) @ Minnesota (Johnson) +104
Tigers (Verlander) @ Arizona (Nuno) +119
