Lou’s MLB Over/Unders Part 1
Before we start, I’d like to point out my perfect record in NFL picks this past season. This doesn’t change in any way that I’m setting money on fire with these plays and I do have an actual play on the first three on this list. Unfortunately for me, I had to make up the other seven.
10) Philadelphia Phillies (under 97)
Thank you Ruben Amaro! You not only splashed out on a kickass free agent but also managed to build the oldest team in the majors, ensuring any gains will likely be washed away by steady decline throughout the lineup and the loss of Jason Werth. Dom Brown is the only projected starter under 29 and I wonder if he’ll have anyone to hang out with on the team. He also broke his hand. The Phillies won 97 last year with Rollins the only significant regular to underperform. They’ve already lost arguably MLB’s Most Irreplaceable Player for half the season and some books have adjusted their lines down as low as 95.
9) Tampa Bay Rays (Over 84.5)
Last season Tampa won 96 games. Pena, Bartlett, Crawford, Garza and the bullpen are all gone. In for them are Dan Johnson, Brignac, Manny/Damon/Jennings, Hellickson and a new bullpen. I’ll posit that Johnson can adequately replace Pena and his .196 average but close to league average play, Brignac can come close to Bartlett’s production and that Hellickson can provide 3/4 of Garza’s league average innings. This leaves a roughly a 10 win dropoff from Crawford and the bullpen and I just can’t see it. Both were beyond excellent in 2010, but the either the replacements and/or the returnees would have to really stink it up to drop that many games.
8) Houston Astros (Under 71.5)
This team is terrible and it won’t even be worth the effort to play their veterans over the younger players in September in hopes of eeking out a few extra meaningless wins and miracle covering the over like they’ve done the past few years. It’s irrelevant anyway as Hunter Pence is the only solidly above average player on the team and they have approximately zero advanced prospects. I’d also like to take the Astros for fewest wins in MLB this season if that’s available someplace. Carlos Zambrano is a better career hitter than both of Houston’s catchers. Interleague: Texas (6), Boston, Toronto, Tampa (3).
7) Anaheim L.A. Angels (Under 83)
Why does Mike Scioscia hate all catchers who hit better than he did??? The Angels did nothing productive this offseason, missing out on Carl Crawford, who was born to play for this team, and Adrian Beltre who signed with Texas. They also traded away sometimes catcher Mike Napoli for another center fielder, despite not having anyone at catcher who can actually hit. Napoli somehow ended up in Texas as well, so the AL west will have one team with an actual functioning offense. Despite my snarkiness, the offense is not terrible (though not helped by Kendry with an ‘S’ starting on the DL) and should the starting pitching go without too many injuries and the bullpen turn in an effective season, this over will ship. That’s a lot to ask of a team with little pitching depth to call upon IMHO.
6) Milwaukee Brewers (Under 85.5)
For a team that’s purportedly contending, even in the NL Central, they have a long way to go. The Brewers only won 76 games last season and while they added Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum, both of whom are very good, they also had to take Yuniesky Betancourt to play shortstop, who is not. Greinke is starting the season on the DL and should things not go well, Prince Fielder is a free agent to be who is not re-signing in Milwaukee and could be traded. 2b Rickie Weeks played 160 games last year in a contract season, after playing in 95, 118, 127 and 39 the last four seasons making JD Drew look durable in comparison. I’ll take under 130 games played please. Lastly, the interleague schedule is brutal: Twins (6) Yankees, Red Sox, Tampa (3).
