Miracle Covers

NFL Championship Sunday

Denver +6 (-120)

Now down to +3.5 as of this writing…tons of money on the Pats tonight, the ML is probably on every parlay this weekend. I do think the Patriots will win this game, but it will be a dogfight in a place that has been a house of horrors for the Pats my whole life. Peyton will have Stidham do well out the gate, but I think the theme that will continue is what Vrabel, McDaniels, and Maye have done this entire season: outcoach/outplay their counterparts in the 4th quarter. Also, Denver’s secondary is banged up and I think it will hurt them in the end, a lot like last week where they got lucky that Buffalo didn’t have actual deep threats (but still threatened them downfield due to shoddy safety play, a banged up Surtain, and snow leopard CB Riley Moss); I like Kayshon Boutte ANYTIME TD +320 for this reason (I also think the Pats have won everygame he’s scored a TD in this year). NE’s line has been shaky, so I like Nik Bonitto getting a sack at -145 vs a struggling LT Will Campbell, and Drake Maye will have to run to create offense (along with hopefully McDaniels calling some bootlegs and mesh plays to get Denver’s defensive line to think) and I like the OVER rushing yards for Maye at 30.5 (-114). Courtland Sutton Receptions UNDER 4.5 is another play as he will have CB Christian Gonzalez on him, on top of the fact he had like 3 drops in last week’s game; usually the backup QB throws to the WR3 more due to having a better rapport with him (that is Pat Bryant; UPDATE: taking the OVER at 3.5 as Franklin is now inactive, although as he is coming off concussion and he’s one hit away but I do know most DFS people like him today for this reason). Denver’s defense is very good in the red zone, and the Pats have also played better in the red zone this postseason and will be vs a backup QB, so I like both kicking OVER points props for Borregales (7.5 -120) and Lutz (6.5 -145) and therefore putting both in parlay at +104. FINAL SCORE: Pats to win 23-20, so I am taking the NE 3, DEN 0 square at +2200 (so it also locks in 13-10, 23-10, and 33-30 scores).

Seattle -2.5 (-105)

Is Scam Darnold no more? Well, it also helps to be in a great homefield with a solid defense and special teams. This is LA’s 3rd game in a row on the road, and it will be unusually cold as balls in Seattle today so I think LA will have a tough time generating passing offense and therefore taking Matt Stafford INT OVER 0.5 -121; the variable is where Seattle generates offense outside of JSN and Walker, as they lost RB Zach Charbonnet for the season. One X factor: outside of the “thicker kicker” Mevis, the Rams’ special teams sucks balls. The Rams have struggled significantly: having two extra points blocked, a field goal blocked, and two punts blocked this season. For this reason, there could be a safety so I like that at +900 and could be a way for Seattle to generate good field position to make up for their offensive deficiencies. For receiving, I like A.J. Barner Receptions OVER 3.5 +145 and Davante Adams UNDER 4.5 -156. I can’t find it, but wish I could bet Puka Nacua OVER rushing attempts because McVay loves calling the jet sweep with him (and did it a little too much last week IMO). The game will be close, both teams punting on their first drive (+300), but I do like Seattle in the end; FINAL SCORE: Seattle 26, LA 20.

DFS: