Miracle Covers

NFL Preseason Bets

Here are my OVER/UNDERs and other preseason bets for the upcoming 2024 NFL Season:

AFC:

New England UNDER 4.5 +115

The Patriots continue a long tradition of great dynasties (NFL 90s Dallas; NBA Jordan’s Bulls being examples) going to absolute shit in the 5 years after they end. With Belichick’s firing, ahem, resignation and “mutual” parting of ways in 2023 after last’s year dismal run, this organization has been run like a clown show. Their new head coach is green and it shows. They have spent a ton of free agent money on players that either are too old (Henry), too hurt (Judon, who they ended up trading away because he was pissed at his contract), and suck (PooPoo Smith Schuster). They have the 2nd worst offensive line in football behind Carolina, and lost their best defensive lineman in the preseason (Barmore). Drake Maye, the 3rd overall pick, has shown flashes but he probably won’t start until late October…that is if starting QB Jacoby Brissett doesn’t get killed first. I will be betting a lot of Pats team UNDER totals and starting whoever defense is against them in fantasy until that happens.

New York Jets UNDER 9.5 +125

Yes, the Jets have a top 10 receiver in Wilson, a top 5 running back in Hall, arguably the best pass rushing defensive line in football with the best cornerback in football (Sauce). But they have issues because in the end, they are still the Jets: the coach is in a “lame duck” season where he must make the playoffs at least to keep his job, never a good thing in football. Their offensive line was the worst in the league last year so one of the ways they bolstered that is signing former All-Pro Tyron Smith. Is he good? Yes. Has he also not played 16 games in a season since 2015? Also yes. They do have an…aging..HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers… who in his last team picture looks like is one bad step out of bed away from breaking his back. And, in perfect Jets fashion, they traded for a top 5 DE in Hasan Riddick… only for him to sit out of camp because he wants a new deal and may do a “Le’Veon Bell” and not play until week 11… or even not at all. They also have a tough schedule… I have them projected at 7 wins with all of these issues plus facing a tough NFC West and tougher AFC South this year. The only threat for me: if (and when) the Raiders tank and WR Davante Adams forces a trade to be with his old QB.

Miami to win AFC East Division +275

The line is way too high, should be +175 from the team with, IMO, the best offense in football. Them and the Bills will be neck and neck and really the only thing that hampers them is their defensive play on the road and the fact Tua is one knock on the head away from his career ending.

Baltimore Ravens OVER 10.5 -130

I have loved the Ravens’ acquisitions in the offseason especially with Derrick Henry who, along with Keaton Mitchell (who they get back later in the year), should make the Ravens’ mesh running attack tough to contend with. They have good defense and special teams, and Lamar has something to prove this season. Let’s just hope John Harbaugh doesn’t fuck it up.

Denver Broncos OVER 5.5 -110

They have turned over the roster to mostly young players, but favorable schedule with weak division outside of KC. Sean Payton is a good coach and they competed fairly well last year despite the personnell challenges and were held back mostly due to Russell Wilson sucking balls. Bo Nix has actually looked good in the preseason, and he should be good right away considering he was in college for 8 years as college football’s real life version of Paul Blake from Unnecessary Roughness.

Houston Texans to Make Playoffs -200

Their offense looked awesome in the preseason, especially the WR core. Joe mixon is a top 10 back…when healthy (a big if to be fair). They are in tough division but Stroud looks like the real deal and is probably the next QB who will trigger a lockout by the owners because he’s gonna get paid once his contract is up. Let’s just hope there isn’t the NFL “sophomore” slump.

NFC:

Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10.5 -200

Another lame duck coach situation with Mike McCarthy who needs to at LEAST make the NFC Title Game, and not lose badly, to stay on. They also have a ton of issue with aging offensive line and running backs, and players with contract albatrosses (Dak, Micah) who may lose faith quickly. Add first place schedule, and event Cowboys’ yearly fail, recipe for disaster.

Green Bay Packers OVER 10.5 +135

Took the alt line on this as I have them projected to 12 wins. The Lions will have a hangover year after the rungood they got last year pushing their luck; variance gets us all in the end and the Lions going for it on 4th down all the time will be no different than shoving all the time preflop with Ace King. Jordan Love also looked awesome at the end of last year and has a new deal in an offense catered for him now, the WR and TE core is balanced, and the defense can create turnovers and sacks. They do lack RB depth though and I will say if the Saints tank, they should target RB Alvin Kamara to replace the passing back role they lost with Aaron Jones in free agency. Packers +800 to be #1 NFC seed could be tasty; the 49ers’ health is a huge wild card.

Philadelphia Eagles To Make Playoffs -260

Crappy division, they now have Saquon Barkley… they should make the playoffs.