NFL Week 4
Put up a big ole donut last week; glad I got it out of the way! There are usually 1-2 weeks a year where one’s bets get cleaned out like losing chips on a roulette table. But I am confident that we can get back on track this week.
It really has been “bizarro year” so far. NFL teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 7-3 ATS this season, Rookie QBs have a W-L of 6-1 and are 7-0 ATS, and if you bet the ML underdog on every game so far this year, you’d be up 10.5 units!!!1111 Usually, if that ratio is at around -10% to -20%, that means it’s a good year for underdogs…nevermind an ROI of +70% or more!
Cleveland +9 (-120)
The Browns are in Washington this week and this line has cratered to around -7 or -7.5. WR Tyrelle Pryor’s play for the Browns has been one of the few bright spots for the team. They lost last week’s game in OT thanks to 3 missed FGs due to a backup kicker; the regular starter got hurt on Friday during a WARM UP. How in the hell does one injure himself in a warm up? This being said, Cody Parker played well last week and the Washington Football Team is flaky in terms of consistent performance during games, never mind week to week. I don’t know how one could be a fan of either of these teams without having a heart attack.
New York Jets +3 (-130)
The juice is high here, but lots to like about the Jets this week, despite Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 6 INTs last week (we have some candidates for now what a 6 INT game is now called: I like the “The Dirty Fitz”, but reader, Bills fan, and fellow contributor Nick also said that the “Fitz 6” is also the more stronger choice). Upside? The Jets offense and Fitz can’t play any worse than that. Russell Wilson is questionable with a knee sprain and didn’t finish the game last week; I drafted him in the 3rd round in one of my leagues and I’ve benched the guy for 2 straight games. Thomas Rawls is out with injury at RB, so the Seahawks had to sign 1st Round bust C.J. Spiller off the street (I also had to pick him up in the same league; I hate running bad in fantasy). The OL has been terrible for Seattle and the Jets have a top 3 defensive line. The game is at 1pm, and West Coast teams due tend to struggle with that (I should of listened to Cousin Sal last week RE: BUF v ARI). I expect a low scoring game, and might throw the Jets in a teaser with the under (40) on a cold, and maybe rainy, day in New Jersey.
Tampa Bay -3.5 (-115)
Trevor Siemian has looked OK so far as QB for the Broncos, leading his team off to a 3-0 start. The under I have at 9 is in jeopardy, but at some point you’d have to think a market correction occurs with this team. While he has good command of the offense, he’s also wildly inconsistent with his accuracy at times; the Bengals last week dropped several interceptions. Denver’s defense has not been as good against the run as they were last year. The Broncos are getting 88% of the money on the road here against a Tampa team that has shown it can throw the ball down the field and keep games close despite lack of depth at RB and in the secondary.
Indianapolis vs Jacksonville Over 49 (-110)
This game is in London; the poor UK fans. That being said, the fail from both of these teams should provide short fields and easy scores for both teams. The over has hit 70% of the time in the London games…this could be due to the teams in the game, but also the fact I think the long flight and trip creates dead legs which cuts into the cardio of the defenders as the game goes along.
TEASER (+140):
IND/JAX Over 49
HOU -5
ARI -7
CFL BONUS:
Ottawa Redblacks +5.5 (-110)
