NFL Championship Sunday

Posted in NFL - 2016/01/24 - 0 Comment

Pats -3.5 at Denver

This is now at -3.5 at some books, where sharps have pounced on it (hence why the line hasn’t moved from 4 to 6). 75% of the money is on NE; a large amount for a road favorite in a championship game. But two trends which favor the Pats today:

a): only 3 times in the modern era, has there been a road favorite in a Conference Championship game (it happened a lot in the 70s, but the rules which determined home field back then were based on an “alternating” structure, a la baseball and the World Series back in the day. So that meant that the 1972 14-0 Dolphins actually played a road game in the playoffs, if you can believe that). All 3 times, the road favorite not only won, but covered convincingly (BUF at MIA in 1993; DEN at PIT in 1997). One of those teams was the Pats, in 2004 when a fever ridden Tom Brady beat a 15-1 Pittsburgh team, 41-27 (and the game wasn’t even *that* close). Generally, when Vegas does this…..they know something. Also, history favors “chalk” in these games in general:

b):

I expect the Pats to win today, and am more unusually confident as a fan going into the game today….but Denver can be a tough place to play; Belichick and Brady are 2-6 lifetime there, including losing the 2013 AFC title game. But they didn’t have Gronk then, they do now. And Collins/Hightower in the LB lineup will mean that noodle arm Peyton Manning will have a hard time throwing the ball over the middle. Chris Harris, Denver’s slot CB, is a game time decision with a shoulder injury, and that’s big because he will need the game of his life vs Julian Edleman. Additionally, as the game goes on, the weather forecast calls for a dip into the 30s and maybe some precipitation. And if the Pats can run the ball for at least 75 yards, they’ll probably win this game 28-19, 34-20….some score like that where (thanks to Denver’s inept offense), the score is “bigger” than it looks. The sharps are on Denver……but only at -3.5 and at -3 with favorable juice and its more of a math play. But I think the optimal play when looking at these teams at face value is NE because of the edge at QB, and the fact the Broncos have a lot of dumb players on their team and they are coached by Gary Kubiak, who often clinches his butt up in these games (ask Texans fans).

Another thing to consider: sometimes, even the dumb “public” is right and hits the favorite. 75% of the money is on the Pats right now; usually 80% of more is when I recommend actually taking the other side on the math alone…..but that goes for regular season, where there are more surprises (due to more shitty and pretender teams), not teams of quality like the Pats. But Denver’s defense is good enough that 24-21 or 20-17 is in play as well, especially with it being Peyton’s swan song with the Broncos, if not his career.

Carolina -3 vs Arizona

The line movement shows that as it’s around a 69/31 split on the money. Sharps are on Arizona (who I took at +210 to win the NFC before the playoff, so this is also a hedge for me), which has a lot of things going for it: they are the more balanced team, they have the better WR core, and they have the better special teams. BUT in these big games, its all about the QB. The reason I picked GB last week is I though Rodgers was better than Palmer, and that showed despite Arizona winning. Carson Palmer is the type of QB where he will have these great numbers, but when you actually watch the game…..you are never all that impressed. He’ll need to play a mistake free game on the road today, and that’s a tall ask for Carson “Mr. Turnover” Palmer. The upside is: he has the talent around him to make up for mistakes quickly.

Carolina has been the best team all year in the NFL. Yes, they had a weak schedule, but they have (in terms of form):

– the best LB core left in the field
– the best CB left in the field
– the best RB left in the field

And add Cam Newton, who is this year’s MVP and playing at home with tons of confidence. Two things however do concern me with Carolina:

a) Defensively, they are very good, especially early in the game when everyone is at full stamina and they really get after it. Like how they pounced on Seattle last week, getting out to a 31-0 lead. BUT they don’t have great depth in the pass rush, and they lose DE Jared Allen today to a foot fracture…..that leads to more time in the pocket for the QB as the game wears on.

b) Carolina tends to have “sphincter constriction syndrome” as the game goes on, in play calling especially. Way too conservative last week in the second half vs Seattle in the play calling, scoring 0 points (although losing TE Greg Olsen didn’t help and his health is HUGE to this offense as they run the ball a lot which creates play action). The Carolina WR core is also the weakest I’ve seen in a long time. This probably is the reason that Carolina is +115 in scoring differential in the 1st half of games, but only +41 in the second half. They’ve almost blown double digit second half leads vs Indy, Green Bay, and NY Giants this year. So the trend would be to take Arizona 2H in this game no matter the line, methinks, as well. Cam Newton will have to “keep his cool” as Arizona makes their likely second half run; he has yet to win a game as big as this and it will be interesting to see how he plays in his first NFL test.

I see either Carolina winning big, hanging on, or if Arizona does pull it out, winning by 3, in this one.


TEASER BONUS (+160): NE+NE/DEN OVER 44+CAR