Miracle Covers

The Quest for Perfection

Before every playoff year, every bettor and prognosticator has their eye on one thing: getting all 11 playoff games right (whether it’s a simple win bracket, or in the case of the spread, going undefeated).  It’s almost become an impossibility over the last few years thanks to the New Age of NFL Parity.  Upsets, surprises, and sure locks all drown in a sea of tears and tossed away losing betting slips on the floor.

The closest I ever got was in 2011 when I went 9-2 (the only blemishes: Tim Tebow beating Pittsburgh in OT, and the Giants winning in GB in the second round).  Let’s hope this year brings in perfection.  Now, to today’s games (picks in BOLD):

Arizona at Carolina (-6, started at -4)

I just can’t take Ryan Lindley on the road against a defense that has been top 5 in all defensive statistics in their last 8 games.  I also have no idea who Kerwynn Williams (Arizona’s RB) is.  Carolina’s offense certainly will have issues moving the ball vs Arizona’s tough defense, but in betting against Arizona the last few weeks….you can tell they are getting gassed.  And not just physically, due to the endless 3-and-outs their woeful offense endures, making them spend the majority of the game on the field; also mentally because their crappy QB situation taxes the momentum of a team when they can’t score.  The only thing I am concerned of here: the coaching mismatch between Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera….that and the fact the majority of America has Carolina today.  Add to the fact I am probably going to tease this with Dallas (and already hate myself for doing so), and it’s clear what my New Year’s Resolution is: setting as much money on fire as possible.  I’ll also tease Carolina with the Under (38, now at 37.5) as well.  I think both games are tight slugfests today.

Baltimore +3 at Pittsburgh

No 100% LeVeon Bell is *huge* for Pittsburgh; he’ll probably won’t play.  He sets up everything for that offense, and allows their WRs to get more space because safeties and linebackers have to honor the line of scrimmage at the snap to account for anything he does; this hesitation allows for big gains in the middle of the field for the passing game.  Areas of concern: Even though Pittsburgh’s defense sucks and is missing CB Ike Taylor, Baltimore’s offense is putrid, especially on the road.  They’ve averaged 22 points on the road this year, but that’s only because they scored 48 in one game at Tampa.  Take that result out, and it’s 17 points game; in today’s NFL, that’s really bad.  Flacco is probably is also hurt because their OL kinda blows.  So then: what gives them a chance in this game?  Their front 7; the reason Baltimore is even as good on defense statistically as they are is because of guys like Daryl Smith (who has done a wonderful job of attempting to replace the legend of Ray Lewis), Terrell Suggs (who as one tweeter put it, “looks like a penis”), Courtney Upshaw, and Haloti Ngata (who comes back off of an Adderall suspension today).  People will say, “but their secondary blows”….but could you name anyone in the New York Giants’ secondary when they won their titles?  Or even anyone not named Ed Reed in the 2012 Ravens’ title squad?  No, you can’t, and it didn’t matter because in the NFL, even with today’s new rules, if you win the line of scrimmage….you win the game (most of the time).  Add to the fact that this game, a lot like NYJ vs NE or ATL vs NO, is a hotly contested rivalry matchup where the games are always close no matter what the records are going in.  Add some potential snow/rain/ice to the mix?  I like the under as well at 45.5, which is way too high IMO.

Parlay Special:

CAR ML -260

CAR/ARI Under 38

BAL/PIT Under 45.5

UFC Special:

Jon “Bones” Jones wins by 5 round decision +240

Very hyped up fight between him and Cormier; watch it be boring as fuck.

Myles “Fury” Jury +130

He fights Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone today, who I love as a fighter…probably one of the toughest, most professional guys in the UFC today.  The problem?  It’s his 5th fight in 6 mths (even though he’s gotten 3 first round KOs in those fights) and Jury is undefeated.  This one is more about the value of the pick, rather than an actual prediction of the fight (when in doubt in a 50/50 coin toss: take the odds).