NBA Playoffs
I can’t be bothered to bet any of these, but I wanted to get my thoughts and picks on the record, so we can see how terrible they wind up after the fact. I did make a good-faith attempt to look up the series odds, but couldn’t easily find them without signing up for a bunch of BS. Anyway, here we go:
Western Conference
(4) Suns vs (5) Clippers
This is the series I am the best informed about, since I’ve watched most of the Suns games post-KD trade. First, my general thoughts on the Suns: This Suns team definitely has flaws, but they also have some significant strengths. I’ll take their “best game” over anyone’s except Milwaukee. With that said, +480 odds for the title are too short IMO. If you could guarantee me they have no injuries in the playoffs, I might like those odds. But both Durant and Paul are high-risk in that area, and Booker has a history of lingering hamstring injuries – including in last year’s playoffs.
Injuries aside, the Suns are good enough to beat anyone, but not so good that any series should be considered a lock. I think they dodged a serious bullet with Playoff P being out for the whole first round. Zubac has consistently matched up very well with Ayton, even when Ayton’s playing well. And Ty Lue tends to get the better of the coaching matchups. With Paul George, I’d consider this series a toss-up. Without him, the pick is Suns in 5 or 6.
(1) Nuggets vs (8) TBD
I’m one of the skeptics who won’t believe in this Nuggets team till they prove me wrong, but it’s hard fto imagine them losing to any of the Pelicans/T-Wolves/Thunder. So my pick is Nuggets in 4 or 5.
(2) Grizzlies vs (7) Lakers
No pick here – this is a complete toss-up for me depending on which Grizzlies team shows up AND which Lakers team shows up. I don’t particularly like this Grizzlies team, but I’m also a certified Laker Hater, so either way, I get to celebrate someone losing.
(3) Kings vs (6) Warriors
I can’t make a pick here, either, but I’m going to try to watch most of these games. The Kings looked legitimately very good this year, but it’s hard to go against the defending champs just as they’re getting the band back together. Very curious to see how this plays out, and I’ll be rooting for the Kings in solidarity.
Eastern Conference
(1) Bucks vs (8) TBD
I don’t think the opponent matters here; this is a Bucks win all the way. I could see the Bucks getting bored and dropping a game or 2, so I wouldn’t bet the sweep. But even if Giannis gets hurt in Game 1, I still think the Bucks advance. Bucks in 4, 5, or 6.
(2) Celtics vs (7) Hawks
The Celtics are way too inconsistent for a team this good, and I worry about Tatum’s decision making in crunch time. (Last year, he sometimes looked more concerned with trying to force a Jordan/Kobe hero-ball highlight than just getting a good shot. Not sure if that’s something he’s gotten better at.) But it would be a shock if this mid Hawks team got to 3 wins. Celtics in 4 or 5.
(3) 76ers vs (6) Nets
This is another series I’ll try to watch most of – I’ll be rooting for my boys Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson (aka The Twins). Still love them both, and wish them the best. But do they have a chance against one of the championship contenders? On paper I’d say no, but there’s always the possibility of Harden doing a full-on flameout. I’ll say 76ers in 5, but more of a guess than a pick.
(4) Cavaliers vs (5) Knicks
Go Knicks! I haven’t watch a single game from either team all year, so I can’t pretend to know anything about this series.
