NFL Saturday & Jags Props
KC at Las Vegas OVER 52.5 (-110)
KC will be going for it and Stidham actually looked good last week. Mahomes needs 437 yards to beat Peyton’s all season record; he’s around +550 to do so. The number is high for my blood, but we will be loading up on props in the other game…
I got Jags +300 to win the AFC South back in like October. They play HU for the division tonight vs Tenessee and I am letting it ride as I think Doug Peterson + Lawrence beats this banged up Titans squad starting a 3rd stringer.
Week 18 is always fun because we have what I call the “incentive” props where players need like 1 or 2 catches, a few yards, to hit 6 figure digit bonuses. Always great when one team just calls a standard little pop pass or shovel just to get it out of the way (although these don’t hit as much because often teams will “round up” and take care of the player if they are close).
Props for tonight:
Zay Jones to have at least 4 receptions (-244), Zay Jones OVER Receiving Yards 92 +268
He needs 2 catches to hit $250,000 and he has had at least five catches in last seven games. He is also 98 yards short of a $500k incentive). Both doable against a below avg TEN secondary.
Christian Kirk Receptions OVER 4.5 -167
Christian Kirk is two catches short of a $500,000 incentive and needs 91 yards for another $500,000. I am staying away from the yards prop as Kirk is more of a “slot chain mover” as supposed to Jones being more of a big play WR2.
Evan Engram Receiving Yards OVER 54.5 -121
Engram, who has come on as a top 5 TE1 in fantasy and shows what happens when you get promising players who actually professional coaching, needs 61 receiving yards (739 to 800) to earn $200k. Engram has averaged 71 yards a game in his last 5 versus a Tennessee defense has been horrendous against opposing tight ends all year long.
