Championship Sunday
Packers -3
In terms of pressure, there is a ton on Aaron Rodgers. A lot of folks consider him this year’s MVP, and probably the 4th best all time behind Brady, Montana, and Manning. It’s his first NFC title game at home, and beating Brady to get to a Super Bowl would be a great feather on his cap. It does help that the Packers’ defense has been playing better, and DaVante Adams (who just came off an injury and played when these two met in a 38-10 drubbing by Tampa in October) is in great form. We took the Packers’ under this year and woefully got it wrong; I think part of the reason Rodgers and the team is playing so well is Aaron’s time in Green Bay is probably more borrowed time UNLESS he wins this game. Players can usually galvanize around that. On the other side, Tom Brady now makes his 9th title game in 10 years… although it was him NOT making mistakes, instead of making plays, last week which brought him here. Usually when a great QB late in his career moves on to a new team, they do well the first year. Montana and Favre made it to their title games; Warner and Manning made it to Super Bowls. But all eventually flamed out, and even their careers shortly ended after (Manning won a title in 2015; but his arm was shot and it was more Denver’s all time top 5 defense that year that brought the bacon home). Brady has already proved him point over Belichick; he’s freerolling at this point. But the lack of a running game, a true 3RB, and Tampa’s inconsistent secondary will probably be the end of the Bucs’ run here.
PROPS:
First to Score: Evans +1000, Adams +450
Receptions (At Least): Fournette 4 +114, Gronkowski 3 -114
Rushing Yards: Rodgers OVER 15 -110
TDs (At Least): Aaron Jones 1 -114
Bills +3
Kansas City is banged up, have been walking on wires the last 8 weeks, and had a hard time throwing on the Bills secondary last time these two met. The game was pushed back due to COVID to a Tuesday; the Bills mostly played a shell zone and allowed the Chiefs to run the ball to make sure Hill and company were covered down the field. It’s a similar strategy Bill Belichick used on the K-Gun Bills, ironically, in 1991 with the Giants in the Super Bowl. I will also add the big concern on Mahomes’ health isn’t the concussion so much, as it is the toe… he was clearly short arming throws last week and it effected his accuracy. I do wish the Bills had a better running game; Zach Moss is out and they will miss him in this game. But I believe a short passing attack in throwing to slot receiver Cole Beasley will supplant that possession game… Julian Edelman killed the Chiefs in 2018. I think this will be a close, low scoring game like the first matchup in Buffalo earlier in the year so I am also taking the UNDER at 54.5 (-105).
PROPS:
First Score Method – Field Goal +170
Total Receptions: Cole Beasley OVER 4.5 (-105), Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2 (-125), Darrell Williams 2 (-105)
First to score: Darrell Williams +1600, Gabriel Davis +2000, Kelce +650
Rushing Yards (At Least): Josh Allen 40 -127; Darrell Williams 38 +110
Receiving Yards (At Least): Kelce 107 +108
Patrick Mahomes Interception – YES +140
DFS:
