Week 2 NFL 2019

Posted in NFL - 2019/09/15 - 0 Comment

Miami +19 (-115)

This is a purely mathematical play, despite Miami sucking ass last week and all of their players wanting to leave, and NE looking like the clear SB favorite who just added Antonio “I Might Be a Rapist” Brown. I think reg season underdogs ATS of 18 or more have covered like 60+% of the time. If you see this list from 2013 alone, you’ll see most of the big favorites usually don’t cover these lines. I even recall attending a Pats game in 1992 vs the 49ers in their prime (Steve Young, Jerry Rice, etc) against one of the worst Pats teams in memory (2-14), and they even covered a -17.5 spread vs a vaunted 49ers unit. It was one of my first gambling memories even as an 11 year old because one of my dad’s friends, Mossy, was telling everyone and their mom to take the points (which i did on the parlay cards I’d help my mom fill out when I was young). “It’s too big; the Pats may suck, but these are professionals”. Add professional pride, a Patriots team that hasn’t won in 6 games in Miami, and a former Belichick assistant coaching…..play the math, take the points. I will add if Miami loses 59-10 or something stupid this week….they might go 0-16.

Baltimore -13 (EVEN)

Baltimore is going to be really good; they will challenge KC and NE for an AFC bye spot with the league’s #1 running game, and a solid defense and special teams, and an improved WR core. Arizona is coming off a tie (which Detroit’s awful coaching gave them), playing a 1pm start, with a rookie QB and coach on the road. Now here is a line which, IMO, should be -17.

Washington +6 (-110)

I didn’t wanna take the Washington (redacted), but 90% of the money is on the Cowboys, and as we discussed on this week’s podcast, if the line gets to 6, we should take this. Adrian Peterson was benched last week and pissed off the team, and Jay Gruden listened. He is also starting due to a injury to RB Darrius Guice, so he should be rested and motivated. Case Keenum is the QB, but he had a good game last week throwing to rookie WR Terry McLaurin with a road cover vs Philly. Everyone is hyping the Cowboys…which is when you should be betting against them.

Jaguars +9

This is now at +7.5, especially after this picture of rookie starting QB Gardner Minshew arriving in Houston:

Texans’ HC Bill O’Brien will keep the Jags in the game. Also, DeShaun Watson is one hit to his back away from getting on IR. Texans simply need to protect him better if they have any shot this season.

Atlanta ML +115

This is now at EVEN. Getting plus odds on, what I think, is a coin flip game (a la last week with the Bills). Big game for both teams: Philly’s QB Carson Wentz was shaky last week in a win during a very pressure filled year, and especially for Atlanta HC Dan Quinn, who is coaching for his job at home on Sunday night.

49ers at Bengals OVER 46 (-115)

These teams stink, will be turnovers and awful special teams galore creating plenty of scoring opportunities.

TEASER (+170):

KC -7.5
DET +9
SF +1.5

DFS: