Super Bowl LIII
The Big Game is here…what a season! Had a good playoff…..although the Saints bet really killed it from making it a GREAT playoff….fucking refs. Worse beat, ever IMO I have ever taken in a sports bet. Anyone, new day, new game…and a fun one it should be. Especially when it comes to PROPS!
MVP Bets:
Brady +140
Gronkowski +3000
Donald +1800
I usually pick 2 QBs…but I don’t think Goff will be the story for the game (he is not even the 3rd best player on the team). Brady always has a chance, even when he shouldn’t (like vs the Falcons where it should of went to James White). I will be betting Gronk heavy in this game; it’s slated to be his last ever, so I expect a great game from him vs a Rams LBs and safeties who have been awful vs Tight Ends all year. I also picked Donald because he’s arguably the best overall player in the NFL right now, and if the Rams win, it will probably be because he had a monster game.
Rushing Props:
Todd Gurley Rushing Yards Under 72.5 -135
CJ Anderson Rushing Yards Over 49.5 +110
Gurley’s obviously hurt with a knee and it is affecting his play. Shannon Sharpe attributed his drop that cause an INT last game specifically to him “not planting on the knee correctly because he was worried about getting hit”. I also expect Belichick to take this element away from the Rams when Gurley is in the game, as his defensive scheme is to take away what you do best. CJ Anderson’s over however (49.5 +110) does look tasty and I will jump on this too as once the Novocaine wears off for Gurley (it usually last a half), he should see the bulk of the carries in the 2nd half.
James White Rushing Yards Over 19.5 -110
I think they hand it off to him in the shotgun in this game. They were successful running inside traps out of the formation vs KC last week.
Receiving Props:
James White First to Catch +250
I expect something short and quick from the Pats offense to start the game. It will probably be something to the backs, and they have started each game featuring James White out of the base shotgun set this postseason.
Sony Michel Over Receptions 0.5 -102
The Pats ran the ball 29 out of the 34 snaps he was on the field; I expect a tendency breaker to keep the Rams off balance…also probably a screen to try and slow down the great Rams front 4 of Suh, Donald, Brockers, and Fowler.
Julian Edelman Over Receptions 7 -130
He has had a monster playoff…he’s probably cycled correctly before the postseason…ahem…TB12 diet….
TE Gerald Everett Over Receptions 2.5
Both teams are awful against the tight end and run lots of PA. Everett has been targeted 10 times in his last 4 games, catching half of them.
James Develin Over Receptions 0.5 +150
This is my biggest one…..he has caught a pass 3 out of the last 5 games. I also wanna take his First to TD prop (+5000)….but I am pretty sure Burkhead/Michel will get these short yardage carries in the red zone.
Passing Props:
First Play is a Pass +115
Easy bet each year; teams love something easy and quick to their QBs comfortable in the game, especially two aggressive offensive minds like McVay and McDaniels.
Tom Brady Over Passing Completions 25.5 -140
The only year it went under was the first Super Bowl in 2001.
Total Interceptions Over 1.5 -120
Seems like stealing; both Brady and Goff threw picks last game.
Punting Props:
Hekker Longest Punt Over 54.5 -125
The guy is a weapon and may also be the best thrower on his team. I would also bet the “Will Fake Punt be Attempted – No” as the Rams did it last game and I am sure Belichick is ready for that shit.
TD Props (anytime):
Gronkowski +900
He has scored a TD in every Super Bowl he has played except for the second Giants one, which he played on one leg.
Burkhead +115
Higbee +250
Snow Leopard!
and also:
Burkhead Last Touchdown Scorer +1000
Specials:
Will any player take a knee during the national anthem? No @ -450
Took this last year at -700. Just not the game to do it (although if anyone were, it would be Marcus Peters). This is also one of those bets I actually hope to lose because fuck Goodell and the NFL.
And finally, picks for the game:
Over 57
The last time the UNDER hit was Colts vs Saints (55.5) in 2009 I believe. There will be lulls in scoring in this one, but Super Bowls are known for cardio dumps with the long irregular pacing of halftime, as well as the pyrotechnics which affect breathing, especially for defensive players.
Patriots -1.5
I am done picking against them. They have played their best ball when it counted, and they are 100% healthy (minus Hightower getting sick this week). I think we often underrate fitness with a football team, and how sometimes a team which is less talented but more fit has more of an advantage that we think. Also, Tom fucking Brady.
