2018 Wild Card Playoffs and NFL Futures
Happy 2018 Playoffs! Been a crazy year with all the scoring……and this week’s 4 playoffs games are all very good, and for the most part, very unbettable. I will say the undefeated NFL Playoff Challenge will be very difficult this year (you essentially try to go 11-0 or undefeated ATS), especially in this round. For this reason, one prop I will take is “Will any fake punts be tried Wild Card Weekend? No -300*.
Before I get into this weeks’ games, I will say I am taking New Orleans to win the NFL at +120. I just don’t think they will lose in the Superdome now with homefield.
I will also preface below the bets I am taking with be with an asterisk * – I won’t bet every game, but I will make a pick for each one for our quest for perfection. First, the AFC:
Indianapolis +2.5
Hey, the annual “Houston 4:30pm Saturday “Special” (and by “special”, we mean, “suck ass game” people who start watching tap out by the 3rd quarter) is actually a good game this year! Indy is on a roll heading into this game, one of the hottest teams in the league behind a revived Andrew Luck and a defense playing well behind super rookie LB Darius Leonard. Houston’s defense is also decent, and this is DeShaun Watson’s first playoff game. I just think Houston is due for a loss for the first time in how many godly year’s they have played in this time slot. This line is now at +1….see alot of under 3 point lines as a theme here. Vegas has no idea who is winning these games, either.
Dallas -2
Seattle and Dallas is about as much of a toss up game I have seen in a WC game in a while. Dallas only has one blowout win this year (vs Jaguars). They run the ball well and the second best tackling team in the league. Seattle also runs the ball slightly worse, and are the best tackling team in the league. I will try to find a “total over punts” line – who knew Michael Dickson on the Seahawks would be a punting God? I do like the under 43.5 at -110* as this should be a rock fight decided in the final 2 minutes.
I am also throwing Seattle in a teaser with Indy at -110*.
Chargers +2.5
I hate taking the Chargers on the road on the East Coast, as they are due for Chargery things….but I have a hard time taking a rookie QB (Lamar Jackson) at home who is basically just a zone read QB at this point of his career. The Ravens also keep teams in game too long for that reason – they can’t cash in the red zone enough due to the lack of passing game. They beat LA earlier this year, but I can see LA making the adjustments and being a very tough out in the AFC bracket. Also, Phillip Rivers is due for a final run. I do like the over 42* as Melvin Gordon is back.
Philadelphia +6 (-110)*
My biggest play of the weekend. Giddy to bet against Mitch Trubisky in a playoff game! Granted, Nick Foles got hurt last week and we are also one hit away from the Nick Sudfeld Experience. The bears have the best defense in the tournament, but their offense keeps people in games…they also lost receiving TD leader A.Miller to an injury last weekend. I expect the Super Bowl champs to keep it close and even have a chance to win this one vs a young Bears team whose time will eventually come. BTW we have not one, but two, Andy Reid disciples coaching this game (peterson and Nagy)…expect the timeouts and game clock time to be set on fire a plenty.
