Week 13 NFL Picks
Baltimore -3 (-125)
This has bounced back from -3 to -3.5/-4 (+105). Miami has been on a roll lately, winning 6 straight…..but they are a flawed team that gave up a lot of big plays to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers last weekend. They are due for a loss, IMO. Baltimore has always played stout at home, and their defense is top 5 in the league and should be able to keep Ryan Tannenhill and Company at bay enough. The only variable, like last week: can the Baltimore offense score enough to cover the line? Against a defense like Miami who is clearly waning in play due to lack of depth (and add in a pick 6 maybe from Tannenhill), I like the Ravens and will give the points here.
New Orleans vs Detroit Over 53.3 (-110)
New Orleans Overs at home have hit at a 66% rate this year, and the two that didn’t hit were only off by a few points. Both of these defenses stink, and the offenses have QBs who are playing at a high level. This is an important game for both teams, so I expect a fun, back and forth competitive affair that also has some fail in between.
Green Bay -7 (+105)
This is more about the juice, and the opponent for the Packers, more so that whether or not they are an actual good team who can cover the 7. The Packers are quite flawed; Rodgers is playing well but his teammates aren’t fans of his showing up his teammates on the field, and both Green Bay’s running defense and offense has been shoddy this year. Rodgers and this team reminds me of James Harden and the Rockets: you have this one great individual player who racks up huge stats each week, but the shortcomings of the team eventually bites them down the road in the playoffs where not even a great scorer can overcome a more balanced opponent. Houston, who somehow still leads the AFC South and is now tied with the Titans, comes into town as one of the worst road teams in the league both in the record and ATS. Houston Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler, who they gave a shit ton of money too, is having his job security questioned by fans and beat writers from some guy named Tom Savage, who I think was in a tag team with the Macho Man back in the WWE. DeAndre Hopkins is on milk cartons across America because he is missing each and every week. Gimme Aaron Rodgers at home here.
TEASER @ +260:
NO vs DET Over 53.5
KC +4
SEA -7
GB -7
Parlay Special @ +280:
Green Bay -7 (+105) (NFL)
Univ of Washington ML -380 (NCAAF)
Demetrious Johnson -1000 (UFC)
Rob Font -280 (UFC)
