UFC 200
UFC 200 is here…what a wacky week for MMA, especially considering Jon Jones got popped for PEDs and the DC fight is now him vs Anderson Silva.
Here are some of my UFC 200 Leans:
Thiago Santos +215
He’s won 4 in a row, and it a late replacement for his opponent Mousasi, who said “he preferred a bigger name”, so could be taking him lightly here.
T.J. Dillashaw vs Raphael Assuncao Goes the Distance -200
They have fought before, and that one went the distance back in 2013. This is an important fight for both guys as TJ is coming off a loss and Assuncao is coming off an injury. Both have really good movement and striking defense so I think it will be a solid 3 round war on the feet.
Kelvin Gastelum -115
Johnny Hendricks missed weight AGAIN, will forfeit 20% of his purse, and on the scales looked like how I feel with I have pocket Kings and an Ace hits the flop. This will probably be his last fight at 170. Kelvin is a solid wrestler and a blackbelt jiujitsu maven from 10th planet, and I see him winning by either submission or decision.
Frankie Edgar -130, Edgar by 5 Round decision +215, and Fight Goes the Distance -135
The Brazilian fighters have had a tough go of it in the USADA era, and some have speculated that is due to the fact they can’t take those special supplements anymore. Aldo is coming off a 13 second KO to COnor McGregor and while he beat Edgar in the first fight, I think Frankie has been on such a hot streak and wants the fight in MSG so bad vs Conor for the 145 belt that he pulls out a decision.
Other thoughts: I do like Tate at -260, but not going to take it as I would want that price a little lower before firing. If you are thinking about taking the underdog Nunes, take the first round prop at +600, as Nunes is the kind of fighter who comes out guns a blazing, but then her cardio fades after the adrenaline dump comes about……..Brock Lesnar at +175 is tempting, even if he hasn’t fought in over 4 years. But he looked to be in “beach body” shape at the weigh ins, so cardio is a concern and you don’t want you leave your head dangling for super striker Mark Hunt……make sure you watch the Cat Zingano vs Julianna Pena fight, it will be awesome but it’s also completely unbettable. You are better off taking the Cleveland Gladiators +14.5 in Arena Football tonight.
Parlay at +325:
Kelvin Gastelum-115, Daniel Cormier -400, Jim Miller -275, Cain Velasquez -300
