NFL Over/Under Season Preview
Just two days away from another season of degenerate gambling. Teasers, parlays, bitcoin live betting, long shots, big favorites, Pat Darts losing money while doing nips of 100 proof Root Beer Vodka…….man, is it great to have football back!
Here are my season over/under previews; these are always my favorite and some of my most profitable bets. We went 3-1 last year here, let’s try to continue the upward trend in 2015.
Carolina Panthers Under 8.5 -105
I “snap called” this the minute Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina’s #1 wide receiver, was confirmed on twitter to being lost for the season with an injury. Carolina has a good defense, and their schedule is of average strength, but I just don’t see how they move the ball without this guy. Last year, Carolina had 20 pass plays over 20 yards; Benjamin accounted for 8 of them. They plan on putting “Fat Boy” Mike Tolbert at WR. The only WR I know of on the depth chart is 40 year old Jerricho Cotchery, and their only real threat in the passing game is Greg Olsen (a TE Fantasy sleeper….*if* he can stay healthy). Because of all these injuries on the outside, their 3rd down performance will suffer. They also lost some running back depth to free agency. Cam Newton is a dynamic QB, but his running style and an average-at-best offensive line put his health in constant flux. Ron Rivera is their coach, a great defensive mind but he is not the best game manager (he is at +2000 to be the first fired). I think 8-8 is their ceiling, 6-10 most likely. This bet is now at -160, so we pounced on it (pun intended), at the right time.
Jacksonville Jaguars Over 5.5 -130
This was at -135 in Las Vegas, not a lot of action on this because, well, who knows about the Jacksonville Jaguars? They have a lot potential on the upside with good young players who have had a good camp and preseason: QB Blake Bortles (try to get him as a backup/matchup guy in your fantasy leagues; he threw the ball 70+ times this preseason), WR Allen Robinson, RB Denard Robinson (who has out-played high draft pick from Alabama, T.J. Yeldon, for the starting job). Paul Posluszny is one of the more underrated MLBs in all of football. Their schedule is of below average strength and their division is, IMO, the weakest of all of them (which is a reason Lou is bullish on the other team in the division, the Tennessee Titans). They did lose big FA signing TE Julius “Feather” Thomas for 4-6 weeks…but this bet was made even without him in mind, and more on the overall progression on Blake Bortles, who we are very bullish on. The only thing I worry about is the fact they play one of their games in London, and that Gus Bradley is a “meh” coach.
San Francisco 49ers Under 7 -150
Lou and I shipped this one last year as now University of Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh was on a lame duck year with the team and was clearly on his way out. The best unit for them last year was their defense; they have since lost: LB Patrick Willis (retirement), LB Chris Boreland (retirement), DL Ray MacDonald (released due to arrest), RB Frank Gore (Free Agency), and WR Michael Crabtree (Free Agency). Kaepernick is more of a “Madden” QB than a real life one, and their ownership is cheap and pretty much fails at life:
“They don’t believe in paying coaches right now. The word around the league in talking to people who are both coaches and who represent coaches, San Francisco is not the place to go to make money.”
If you don’t invest money in coaches, you better have a guy like Bill Belichick at the helm to make up for the slack (NE does this too; but BB gets the most out of his coaches and he has an eye for young coaching talent). If not? You’ll probably have a 3-13 season. The atmosphere around the team just stinks, and add to the fact they are in the toughest division in football in the NFC West that feature 3 of the top 5 defenses in the league. This bet is now at -210, especially since they will at some point most like lose LB Amhad Brooks to suspension due to grabbing some girls’ boob when she was passed out at Ray MacDonald’s house. What a fucking mess.
Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 -105
Part of this bet is pure schadenfreude, as we have often bet the Dallas under over the years anticipating the yearly fail that comes with their franchise. I snap called this bet this year when they had some major injuries to their secondary in CB Orlando Scandrick (who was having a great camp and is considered one of the best “slot CBs” in the NFL) and CB Brandon Carr. Add to the fact they lose RB DeMarco Murray to FA to their NFC East rival Phildelphia Eagles, they will now have a RB by committee approach featuring: Darren “Fantasy Sleeper who always gets hurt” McFadden, Christian “two first names” Michael, and Joseph “I steal designer underwear” Randle (he later got an underwear endorsement deal). Dez Bryant is a top 3 WR; but he is injury prone and his health is more important this year because of the loss of Murray. Ditto with Tony Romo; they lost him for a few games last year and did OK with Weeden (who stinks) under center because they could just hand the ball off to Murray. Can’t do that this year, even with the best OL in football, defenses will just make the Cowboys “prove” the other guys can produce. I do like Terrance Williams as a WR3/Flex in fantasy leagues. They also have a really tough schedule playing the AFC East (now with Brady playing all 16 games) and the NFC East, the second strongest division in football IMO. This bet is now at -125.
Washington D.C. Football Team Under 6.5 -165
(current: -175)
Usually the meme is to “save the best for last”….but this year, I saved the worst. You may ask yourself, “Sean, that is an awful lotta juice, kinda risky, no?”. Under most circumstances, you are right, so let’s make our case below with some of the highlights of failure that have come out of Fairfax, VA this summer:
– The team gets into a huge brawl with their summer session with the Texans. Then they get into a huge brawl with the Ravens in a preseason game. Not exactly the discipline you are looking for going into a season.
– The wife of the General Manager Tweets that a female ESPN Reporter only gets her access by “giving BJs”, after the reporter writes a critical story on the team. She denied the tweet, deleted it, only to then take it back and then apologize hours later….even though her family members say the Washington Brass pressured the GM’s Wife to apologize, (as she Suspected the GM and ESPN reporter were having an affair). Who needs “Hard Knocks” when you have “Days of Our Lives” going on in D.C.?
– The Robert Griffin III saga continues. It started when the owner, who sucks at life and who The Nation’s Dave Zirin calls, “the Donald Trump of the NFL”, gets a coach (Jay Gruden, +300 to be the first coach fired) whose only success was as a HC of an Arena Football team, has a pocket passing system as supposed to the zone read spread scheme that fits RG III’s style. RG III (who, I admit, doesn’t have the best demeanor is and is a bit too sure of his abilities) and Gruden, predictably, don’t hit it off…not the best thing for a locker room. The owner wants him as the start, and the coach clearly does not. RG III then gets a concussion in a preseason game, which then leads to speculation that the coaching staff is using the medical staff to keep RG III from playing so it forces Kirk Cousins to be the starter (the D.C. football team is 2-7 with him under center; former Washington coach Mike Shanahan says he can be a top 10 NFL QB…pretty much a kiss of death). The medical concussion expert for the team resigns, especially after a soccer player on twitter claimed he was misdiagnosed under this same quack a few years ago. In a sense, I don’t blame RG III’s attitude – we have all had shitty working conditions that affect our performance and I am curious to see how he does when he gets out of that shithole.
– Colt McCoy, meanwhile, stews on the bench wondering why he isn’t starting. When he was under center for them at the end of the year, the team showed fight and was competitive on offense and they beat Dallas on a Monday Night (we took the +7 that night here at Miracle Covers). That’s how bad Washington is; the best guy they have under center is Colt McCoy and they aren’t even starting him.
– The team is notoriously cheap. RG III’s knees buckled under their shitty grass field in a playoff game vs the Seahawks in 2012 because a)their CBs were awful and Coach Mike Shanahan wanted the field to be mucked up…which makes no sense because Seattle’s offense has more of a running attack and b) it would cost $5 million to replace the field (which Patriots owner Rob Kraft had to do in 2005 – the Pats have been the most consistent offense in football since). Former lineman Ross Tucker said the team tried to pressure him into renting a luxury box for $125,000…at the time, Tucker’s salary was only $300,000. Their best CB, DeAngelo Hall (lol to begin with), got hurt while grabbing a late night slice of pizza. They also didn’t resign Brian Orakpo in free agency.
– The team’s logo and nick name is abhorrent and creates a stink around the team.
In short, I am giddy to bet against the D.C. football team in 2015. They are 32 out of 32 on ESPN’s rankings. They *will* be the worst team in football this year, and that’s not only great for our bankrolls, but also for America.
