NFL Lean 9.10.2015

Posted in NFL - 2015/09/10 - 0 Comment

One lean tonight that I have: the PIT/NE Under at 52 -115.

Factors that can contribute to the under tonight in my view:

Momentum: Everyone is saying that the Patriots will be fired up, especially with Brady playing, and will come out and kick ass tonight. Sometimes this also can work against you and you can play too high and become too tight and excited, when a snag or two happens in the game. Brady has also looked bad in preseason, but that also maybe due to the fact that he’s had alot of shit on his mind. TBH they are saving the “fuck you” game for the Colts in October…and the team will probably be more “in form” by then as supposed to now where they could be still, working out the kinks.

Both teams have O-Line issues: no Brian Stork tonight. The center was THE difference between the Pats O-Line playing well last year or playing bad. According to Greg Bedard of CNNSI, the guards also have looked mediocre at best in the preseason games. Replacement C David Andrews looked good in the preseason, but we’ll have to see how he and the rest of the O-Line handle an athletic Steelers Front 7 tonight. For the Steelers, Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey is not playing tonight.

Defenses: two of the NFL’s top Front Sevens face each other tonight. The Steelers have lots of athletic, highly drafted, young LBs, a new defensive coordinator (Brady has always owned the last PIT DC Dick LeBeau, who was there for like 30 years), along with vet James Harrison. The Patriots have one of the most diverse Front Sevens in all of football and they could be even better this year as they are 100% healthy. To point out a contrary analysis: both of these secondaries to me are “meh”. The Pats lost future Hall of Famer Darrelle Revis, Kyle Arrington, and Brandon Browner to FA and there’s a lot of young guys who are unproven replacing them (I can’t name who the #1 CB is, probably Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler). The Steelers have no idea who their safeties on are as I write this, and whoever it is has big shoes to fill since losing legend and future Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu. Both get a break tonight because for them, thankfully….

Injuries/Suspensions at Skill positions: Pats WR Brandon LaFell is on PUP. Edleman has been out of camp all summer and could be rusty (keep an eye on him and concussions; could be an issue this year). RB LeGarrette Blount is suspended (while with the Steelers) for being caught in a car by cops in Pittsburgh smoking a blunt with Steelers’ running back LeVeon Bell, widely considered one of the best RBs in all of football (and for fantasy folks, is great for PPR leagues). The Steelers are also without another fantasy sleeper, WR Martavius Bryant, who was ALSO caught smoking weed*.

*note to self: make sure to try the weed when in Pittsburgh.

Weather: from Pats play-by-play guy Scott Zolak who is already down at Gillette:

It has been humid all week in New England, and the “skies are about to open” tonight, and it looks like the rain could also pick up during the 3rd and 4th quarters. According to Zolak as well, they aren’t covering the field as it pours in Foxboro as I write this. Expect a slow track tonight. The line is now at 51, and -109, on Nitrogen Sports.

Here are my DFS lineups for this week; I am usually not a fan but had to jump in at least for Week 1 and the $10m Guarantee on Draft Kings. As you can see, hints for what we are bullish on for Sunday with the player selections: DAL/NYG Over 52, and Rams +4.