NFL Saturday
2-2 last week – but should of been 3-1; how the fuck did I take Andy Dalton on the road vs Andrew Luck (oh wait, I was hungover; thanks Pat!)?
I, like alot of sharps, over thought that one a bit because of the fact even though Indy is an incredibly flawed team…..they are still better than the Bengals. The game was depressing because Cincy actually had a chance to cover without their #1 TE/WR/OL/MLB, that’s how average Indy is. I took Indy in the second half anyway so we made our money back.
The Dallas/Detroit game was essentially a WWE match and everyone lost who bet on that game, even if you won money. The only real winner is the NFL: they got their Green Bay vs Dallas matchup for tomorrow which will be a ratings MONSTER.
Here are the picks:
Seattle -11 (-105)
I’m also throwing this one in a shit ton of teasers. It’s actually at 11.5 now on Bovada. Carolina has good qualities, mainly it’s defense. These two teams have played 2 close games in the past 3 years, but those games were in Carolina and Carolina had Steve Smith (who isn’t this great player, but intangible wise, he wouldn’t put up with Sherman’s shit). I actually think taking Carolina in the 1st Half (+7) isn’t a bad play. But I eventually think the rubber band will break and Seattle pulls away at home in this one. I just can’t see Carolina’s offense lead by a banged up Cam Newton putting up 17 points on the best defense in the NFL, especially on the road. The only outlier is the Carolina defense or special teams scoring a TD; some guy named Brenton Bersin (who went to Wafford in South Carolina) is returning punts and muffed one last week (but could be a Snow Leopard sleeper in 2015, along with Cincy’s Rex Burkhead). I will also throw this in a teaser with the under (40) as well as with Denver -7. One more thing that makes me confident about this one; as you see in the picture below, these Carolina players take a “selfie” after winning a Wild Card Game, at home vs Ryan Lindley, where they made it a sweat for a win despite the fact the opposing team gained JUST 78 yards. These guys are just happy to be here.
New England -7
Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens have me worried like a mom late on a Saturday night when her teenage kids are out on the town. Flacco is awesome in the playoffs; their front 7 is great and the Pats OL is average at best. BUT: the Ravens still have flaws they can’t escape. Gronkowski is 100%, and they have some of the worst safety play in the NFL, being in the bottom 3 on allowing 20+ and 40+ or more pass plays. The Pats aren’t the best deep ball team, but I think one thing to come away with is that last year, the Pats were able to run the ball on the Ravens in a 41-7 win, and Blount had a big day. If they can duplicate those efforts, it will setup the PA and open up the middle of the field. Vereen will also be important in the sprint draw and pass game with screens, wheel routes and flat outs. The Ravens on the road vs actual defenses this year have been abysmal; the Pats’ defense is the best in over 10 years and I believe the second best defense left in the tournament. Revis will take out Steve Smith and the defensive line will keep Forsett in check. If Dennis Pitta was healthy in this game, I’d probably like the Ravens’ line more to keep it close…..but in the end, I just think the NFL will make sure that NE vs DEN will happen for the ratings. Wait, what? I only thought that happens in the NBA?
Side Thoughts:
Bovada is running a prop: Do all four home teams win? +190. This hasn’t happened since 2004; so it could be due. I’ve jumped on this essentially 4 team ML parlay.
Also, I like CJ Anderson at 6-to-1 to be the weekend’s rushing leader (I’ll expand more on the Denver game tomorrow) and Dez Bryant to Score a TD (-140) and Most Receiving Yards at 13/2 and well as two players I recommend for you Daily Fantasy Football degens.
