TNF Thoughts

Posted in Hockey, NFL - 2014/11/06 - 1 Comment

I’ve been betting TNF pretty heavily this year; smashing both the over and the favorites (esp at home) fairly hard.  I’ve been rewarded with a great ROI as a result (sans the NE-Jets lean; this game is a “rivalry” game along with Saints/Falcons and Washington/Cowboys; the record don’t matter when these teams meet, especially in Foxboro where the Jets play hard).

I don’t have any lean on the teams themselves tonight; both are pretty craptastic (do you know this is the first time both Cincy and Cleveland have faced each other and both teams were over .500 since 1987?).  But what I *love* tnoight is the under (46 at -110).  A few thoughts:

I bet the season under on the Browns (5.5) hoping that Mike Pettine would help bring this team down along with the Johnny Football QB turmoil.  Hoyer has looked OK and the Browns schedule so far has to be the worst in the league.  What I didn’t expect, and Lou mentioned this before the year: the Browns defense is pretty good.  It might even be top-5 good.  They have the 2nd best CB in the game this year in the super duper Joe Haden (#1 is Pat Peterson of the Cardinals; a big reason they are 7-1 right now), a decent front 7 that still has produced despite losing one of the best LBs inthe game in D’Qwell Jackson to the Colts, and Pettine has shown to be an outstanding defensive head coach (as his absence from his last employer, the Jets, has reared its head; they have sucked in the secondary this year.  It doesn’t help their #2 CB is a converted safety).

The Browns offense on the other hand?  Awful.  Just awful.  They have an average professional QB, they change RBs every week, their #1 WR is Miles Austin thanks to Josh Gordon smoking the reef, and they are missing both their #1 TE (Cameron) and one of the best Centers in the game, Alex Mack.  Pettine’s coaching decisions are also pretty wary on this side of the ball, as evidenced here.:

The Bengals, on the other hand, play down to their competition each and every single week.  They have nagging injuries to their #1 RB (Bernard) and #1 WR (Green).  Green is playing tonight, but he’s basically just been a decoy over the last few weeks for guys like Mohammed Sanu.  Cincy’s defense *is* a top 10 defense: but only when healthy.  Vontaze Burfict is one of the best 3 down LBs in the game; he’s also one of its dirtiest, which leans tackling with the crown of your helmet.  He’s had several concussions this year.  The Bengals are also quarterbacked by Andy Dalton, who the crowd was ready to turn on last week when he almost gave the game away to Jacksonville AT home (if only thanks to a Jeremy Hill 155 yard running day).

The weather will also have a 50% chance of rain, 43 degrees, and winds at 10-15 mph.  75% of the money is on the over (at -105).  The loser of this game, especially Cleveland, is out of the playoff hunt.  Therefore it will be played with that grind it out intensity.  It will also be craptastic and low scoring because I can’t think of any other way these two teams play.  I also like the over in punts, whatever that is.

NHL BONUS:

Florida +135 (agreed with Lou here!  Do you know they lead the NHL in least allowed 5-on-5 goals?)

Winnipeg +155 (2-1 betting on the other Jets this year.  They face Pittsburgh tonight, a tough task, but who gets up for a game in WINNIPEG?)

One thought on “TNF Thoughts”

  1. Come on now, you know Mike Pettine’s last employer wasn’t the Jets – it was the Buffalo Bills! Losing him definitely hurt the pass defense, but the run D is a lot better this year.

    PS. I like the Bills and the over against KC this weekend.

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