NFL Season Picks
First off, thanks to Sean for a much more elaborate post than I have here. Sean and I had a chat last week which really should have been our first ever Miracle Covers podcast, and we’re in agreement on most of my plays that I have below. We could really shorten the first two to say that having Blaine Gabbert as your QB makes winning football games approximately as likely as winning a poker hand with 2-7.
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 -165
I would take Under 10 and Under 9.5 as well on this team. You have a coach that will be elsewhere in a year’s time, a defense where most of the superstar players are injured or suspended and an offense incapable of carrying the team, mimicking what happens in Baltimore when their defense stopped being excellent and reverted to average or worse. Also Gabbert is their backup.
Jacksonville OVER 5 EVEN, To WIN AFC South +2600
I was solidly in the +2100 range on the AFC South portion of this bet but got some more action down today at +3400 which was a bad line that seems to have not been cancelled yet. So I’m averaging out to +2600 overall. Does Jacksonville have a better than 1:25 chance to win this division? Absolutely. They have upgraded at QB and have a chance to significantly upgrade if Blake Bortles is any good. They also have some depth especially at receiver and their secondary and the worst division in football, so 8-8 might be good enough. They won 4 games last year and Pinnacle has their Over 4.5 juice well over -200.
Philadelphia to win NFC East -112
I’m unconvinced of the other teams in this division and 9-7 (The Eagles total is 9) or 10-6 will get this done.
Top 5 Confidence Scoring
5) San Francisco UNDER 10.5
4) Jacksonville OVER 4.5
3) Kansas City UNDER 8.5
2) Atlanta UNDER 8.5
1) New Orleans OVER 9.5
