Divisional Degeneracy

Posted in NFL - 2014/01/10 - 0 Comment

And it’s the NFL’s Divisional Round….probably the one I do the worst in over time.  I’ve made such “lock” bets in the past in this round as:

– One way to lose money: betting Jake Delhomme, who was at home (Carolina) versus Arizona, coming off of a thrilling win vs Green Bay (who the oublic had 80% of the money on) the weekend before.  70% of the money was on the Panthers.  Our boy DaGowin, a Carolina fan, declared before the game: “Now ya’ll can see what it is like to watch a real professional football team play the game right”.  Jake Delhomme would go on to throw 4 picks and the Panthers lost 33-13.  He would never play for the team again and only had one more start in the NFL (with the Browns…and that kinda doesn’t count).

– Betting on Peyton Manning in games in this round is always shaky (we all know what happened last year).  I took the Colts vs the Chargers in 2007 (I was convinced that the Brady-Manning game would happen during the Patriots quest for an undefeated season, ala Magic vs Bird in 1986).  Billy Volek, who came in for an injured Phillip Rivers in the 2nd half, played the role of Rob Reed and the 1986 Houston Rockets to upset the Colts.  I also gave the points at home vs the Steelers (and some rookie named Ben Rapethelisburger) in 2005 (which means I didn’t learn my lesson).

It was also the game where this happened:

So my history is dicey in this round, but hey……you can’t correct that if you don’t play!

Saints +8 and in a Teaser with Under 45 at Seattle

I think everyone is a little too bullish on Seattle blowing out the Saints in this game.   Seattle’s offense is somewhat vanilla, and the Saints defense has improved over the last few weeks, and they (IMO) have the 4th best running game in the league (and if Seattle’s defense has one flaw; they can be run on).  The Saints also got their ass kicked the first time they went up there; it’s unlikely to happen again,  right?  What really killed the Saints were the unforced penalties and TOs; that stuff can be corrected.  I think Drew Brees and Sean Payton keep it close in the 1st half, but Marshawn Lynch steals the show and finishes out the game strong, along with some timely Wilson throws.  This bet is also part of a hedge I have with Seattle winning the NFC at 11-to-10.  It would be funny if we had a reverse situation like we had in 2011 (the 7-9 Seahawks faced the 11-5 Saints.  The Saints were an +11 favorite, and lost, mostly thanks to this run)…..bringing about the degen play of the week (brought to you by King Cobra) would be to take the Saints ML at +290.

49ers -3 (+120) at Carolina

I have been riding the 49er train the last few weeks and its helped my bankroll tremendously.   First, they are the best team in Madden 25 (2014)…always an important indicator for me.  Second, they travel well in any environment versus a variety of teams, because they do what good fundamental teams do well: run the ball and play defense.  Third, this will be Cam Newton’s first playoff game.  There might be a good chance he shits his pants.  Kaepernick isn’t the most accurate and a bit wild……but he is a clutch player with big play ability.  The under is at 41 here; considering these two defenses and the injury to Steve Smith I can see that…..but these teams’ defense also create turnovers as well (and good field position), so I’ll probably stay away there.

Plus how can you not be inspired by this guy:

NE vs Colts Under 51

Way too high considering there will be rain and 20-25 mph winds on Saturday night.  Add the fact the Pats will run to possess the ball (especially if they take an early lead), they can and will burn clock.  If the Colts keep it close, the will have to play defense and keep Brady and Co. out of the endzone.  This game could go 30-13 or 27-20.

We end on this nugget: