An Epiphany
While watching the Islanders vomit all over themselves and concede goals at a rate approaching the warmup goalies the past few nights, I started digging into my hockey system which has been excellent up until the last week or so. The premise for said system was to sort out the games that should in theory be coinflips with plus odds since regular season hockey games have one of the smaller home-field (ice?) advantages of the major sports. Anything approaching a .500 record with all games in plus odds should be well in the money if executed correctly.
Turns out I screwed up by including non-conference games in the sample. This eliminates any exceedingly lengthy road trips in terms of days as teams only head to each coast a few times a year. It also removes the NBA-like problem of having a superior conference face off against a weaker one. The non-conference games for us this season went 0-4 and over the past few seasons are barely breakeven with a well under .500 record. I don’t need that kind of losing & variance for such a small return, and it’s not like these plays are filled with lots of quality teams already.
So no more non-conference games for me and that should help clean things up a bit. Islanders/Ducks, Flyers/Blackhawks and Islanders/Coyotes from the last week would all be excludes going forward. And even with those plays we are still at 4-4 +1.6 for the month.
Rockets also lost both plays last night, though I have been testing most of the week and I’m confident in those setups, especially the moneyline plays.
NHL is definitely out today but I haven’t been doing basketball long enough to tell if there will be anything there or not. Updates later if at all.
