Miracle Covers

When to Bet your House on an NFL Game

I stayed up to watch a thoroughly enjoyable Chargers game on East Coast Time last night and couldn’t help myself pre-game, dumping a whole lot more units on Oakland +6.  It wasn’t quite a bet the house game, something that happens roughly once a season,  but had I thought about it some more it probably would have qualified.  When I say bet the house, I mean that on occasion, there comes a game or series where it makes sense to bet a disproportional amount on a side.  Usually this becomes extremely obvious in hindsight.  Here is the NFL Criteria:

1) The Public is on the other team

This is Gambling Rule #1 and should be posted at the top of this site.  I’ve had to stop betting soccer because I can no longer find public data for these games anywhere, but it’s readily available for all major American sports.  The Public was 80% on San Diego last night.  and I’d say the cutoff for these games is roughly 75%.

2) The team in question is at home, preferably someplace with a sizable advantage

Betting on home teams is rule #2 of this site.  The statement above normally meant Seattle before they became legitimately good, or midwestern teams in the cold but some dome games count too.  Night games are great, especially when it’s a team that isn’t on TV much because they aren’t very good.  Playoff games count too.  A legitimate night game in Oakland definitely qualifies.

3) The opponent is “Fragile”

I can’t think of a better word here, but we’re talking about the type of teams that tend to self-destruct at critical moments, especially on the road.  Examples: Dallas, San Diego, Jets, Chicago with Sexy Rexy.  Turnover prone QBs paired with mediocre or worse coaches really are the key here.

4) The team in question is getting points

It’s no fun to bet the house, get the game correct and be sweating a miracle cover.  Better to take the points, put some more on the Money Line and enjoy the festivities.

Below is a non-comprehensive list of previous Bet the House games.  I did not in fact bet my house on any of these, nor did I even get significant money down on all of them.  I essentially pushed on the Cardinals game because I had so much on the ML, and the Packers/Chargers affair I had action that was split amongst several people.  Last night I got in a solid couple of plays, but nothing as high as the two Seattle games.  Betting on Seattle was much more fun when they weren’t as good, but at least now we get to go against them on the road.

The point of getting these gathered in one place is to be able to try and identify the pattern listed above a little more clearly the next time it arises.

Chicago Bears 24 (-13) at Arizona Cardinals 23

San Diego Chargers 24 (-5.5) at Green Bay Packers 31