If I only had a time machine….
The line of the week for Week 6 is the Denver Broncos -27 line versus Jacksonville (once -28). It’s the biggest line on record, and quite possibly one of the funniest things I have ever seen on a Monday morning. It is the highest since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
Will the Jags cover, even if Henne plays? Since 2003, dogs of 20+ have gone 4-0 ATS (and those 4 four times the favorites have been the NE Patriots). The Patriots have been a nightmare for sports books in the modern era; sportsbooks couldn’t stop losing because everyone was on them early in 2007 and 2011 when they were destroying everybody (and covering). Then once they didn’t cover, all the money kept coming in against them (and the Pats either won close, or lost those games). As one sports bookie put it: “There was nothing we could do.”
Historically, according to The Gold Sheet (sports-betting publication that has been tracking point spreads since the 1950s), the line of minus 28 ties the highest spread of all time, set by the Baltimore Colts over the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966. The Falcons, of course, covered. In 1976, expansion Tampa (quarterbacked by South Carolina Gamecock’s coach Steve Spurrier) were 26-point dogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers…..and promptly lost 42-0
I’m almost tempted to take the Jags because it *is* so many points; you’d also have to think it’s a motivating factor in that locker room to cover the spread (because I am sure even they know they won’t win). Either way, I do like the Over at 53 (-110). Denver’s defense is not that good; I do think the Jags *could* score 17-20 on them (especially when garbage time hits). Denver will probably break the season’s total points scored and average per game record, and put up at least another 35-41 here.
Seattle -14 (EVEN) v TEN
Ryan “My mom has met Pat Darts” Fitzpatrick on the road against the best home team, and defense, in football? Yes plz.
Teaser: CIN (-7 vs Buffalo) + SF (-11 vs ARI) + SEA (-14 vs TEN) at +165
Probably also take Cincy on the road at the -7 as well. I mean, the defense hasn’t allowed a 300 yard passer in 18 straight games…which in this era, is pretty fucking good. I am not a huge fan of Andy Dalton, but I am a huge fan of betting against practice squad QBs (like Thaddus Lewis).
Washington R.G. Threes (+6, -120) vs Dallas
I get to do one of my favorite past times: betting against the Cowboys. These 2 teams always play close games.
CFL Bonus pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders (-9.5, EVEN) vs Edmonton
Saskatchewan comes home from a two game road trip at 12-3. They are considered the best defense in the CFL. Edmonton’s team nickname is the “Eskimos”. And we are gambling!
