Over Easy
I think Collinsworth during last nights incredibly long game (only outlasted by the Yankees-Red Sox game that lasted to the 11th) said it best: defenses are going to have a hard time early on, especially when the weather is warm, to keep up with hurry up offenses this season. For Manning, it makes sense: he’s been running it his whole life, has great weapons on the outside, and many teams find it foreign physically to keep up in the rare Mile high air. Add the “Kevin Ogletree Award” winner of 2013 Julius Thomas in the mix, and Denver might average not only 33.5 points at home, but 30 overall (I think its only been done 3 times).
That being said, I am bullish on overs this week, especially in games in nice weather:
Falcons at Saints Over 54 -110 (now at 55 -111, could go to 54.5 -115)
In da Dome, Payton is back, neither team has much of a pass rush, and both teams are loaded on offense. Plus, these two teams hate each other. This could be the game of the day.
New England at Buffalo Over 49-116 (now 51 even)
Brady comes out and tries to match Peyton Manning’s (who I have in 3 fantasy leagues) record day. Plus the Bills are missing Safety Stephon Gilmore (a former Gowin Alumnus of the South Carolina Gamecocks) as well as Jarius Byrd (in trade rumor) being questionable with a foot injury. I’ll also probably tease this.
NY Giants versus Dallas Over 49.5 -105 (this will move wildly before kickoff)
NBC/NFL will ensure that this game also takes 4.5 hours (as well as Garrett throwing on every down).
KC at Jacksonville Over 42.5 -110
Well, why the fuck not! These teams are due to play in a shootout by default at some point, right? And Andy Reid is an offensive genius….you should see this guy work on a rack of ribs!
Miami at Cleveland 41 -110
Just a test, as UConn’s Jim Calhoun would say, “Not a dime” on this game. If you think on betting on anything in this game, you should re-assess your life immediately and probably call up Gambler’s Anonymous at 1-800-IAMAFUCKINGDEGEN
(BTW: Parlay of all of these is $25 to win $610…does anyone have a cell phone?)
Carolina ML +156
I’m intrigued here because we’re at home, with a decent QB (Newton has ALOT to prove this year), nice weather, and the whole “West Coast-to-East Coast” trend (which got broken this year, but I think that is more of an outlier). Does Seattle have the best defense in the NFL? Maybe. But they are missing players due to suspension and they are young so its a defense which will improve over the year. Also since I have Lynch in 2 fantasy leagues, this is a nice hedge. I just am always worried Ron Rivera steps on his dick….although, he’s going up against Pete Carroll, so that could be a wash.
Good luck, all: I look forward to hearing Pat Darts’ rationale when the subject of taking the Raiders (+374 at IND) and Terrelle Pryor on the road, comes up on Sunday.
