Wednesday
An ugly day in baseball reminded me why I’m treating the Astros and Marlins separately from the other 28 teams, something I had forgotten in the last few weeks with Miami’s over .500 play here in June. The Mariners also lost ugly, abruptly ending whatever winning streak was going on. That said, we had a rare total which was again a winner. 5-0-1 +5u on those and I wish there were more because the sides are now all of +1.04 for the season. Better than losing though and I think all but removing the away teams, which are 6-12 -4.04 will help. I think there is space for these plays when there is a good matchup and very solid plus odds, but the percentage of plays probably needs to be 80-90% on the home sides.
Not many leans today: KC, Tampa and Houston who we are mostly ignoring. Soccer today has Brazil and Uruguay in Confed cup, where I can’t see value on any side. The draw at +400 would be the closest to a play.
EDIT: Uruguay came close to pulling off a draw but ultimately lost as expected 2-1. Marlins won again today and are 9-6 since Stanton came back from the DL. They also went 5-15 to start the season with him playing so this is mostly small sample size, but their lineup isn’t anywhere near as terrible as it was a few months ago with Stanton and Morrison back instead of whatever schmos they were playing everyday instead. Miami’s pitching has been slightly above average and while they probably have too far to go to cover my 64 win proposition, they are looking more Mariners bad than Astros bad. Briefly on the Astros, they’ve allowed 405 runs after yesterday’s disaster, 40 more than the next closest teams and that’s only going to increase after they deal Bud Norris at the All-Star break.
Passing on KC tonight though it’s close. 50/50 proposition after the lineups came out but I’m looking for a line move toward the Royals or a better price to put down some dollars.
