Miracle Covers

Free Money Alert: Code Green

I don’t like to recommend any of my hometown teams often for a bet….I actually think it is bad luck.

I’ve even done the most cardinal sin, and once bet against them vs Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010 while they were up, 3-to-1, going into Orlando for Game 5 (Orlando -4).

Our friend Francis, while at the Everett de Castle lounge drinking beer and kvetching about the series, blurts out:

“Dude, Perkins has one more tech to go (before an auto game suspension…otherwise known as the “Rasheed Wallace Award”). It’s David Stern. The refs will fuck us over. They’ll get one more game in Boston just for the ratings”.

And I was like……

holy shit……….

FREE MONEY*

The Celtics line now at +2 (was at +1.5 at 6pm) at home against the New York Knickerbockers is a very good play tomorrow.

The Knicks, after being up 3-0 in the best of 7, dominating every second half, and nearly coming back from a 20 point deficit in the 4th game……have looked absolutely atrocious 7 out the last 8 quarters. They are a shooting team; so if they don’t shoot well, they don’t win. That’s the usual stock analysis of a “shooting team”.

They are also NOT a passing team, because some players on their team….well they just refuse to do it. This despite having Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton on the team. They’ll have their moments, but at times, I feel like I’m watching Darts playing NBA Jam with just Melo and JR Smith…….and no one else exists on the Knicks offense. Iman Shumpert’s points only happen when the ball somehow finds the way into his hands by the grace of God.

Did you know that Carmelo Anthony had *2* passes in Game 1? No, not assists (he had only 1 of those..here is wife Lala celebrating that here)……but passes. Carmelo seems like the type of guy who probably doesn’t pass the salt at the dinner table, never mind off of a pick and roll (which Felton has abused with Chandler all series…….the Celtics have no answer for Felton. This may be the reason why the Knicks don’t run it all the time).

You’d think passing the ball against an older, slower team like the Celtics would be a strategy to use?

JR Smith went 0-11 in Game 5 before his first FG. Do you know how hard that is to do?

Throw in the the stupid black suit karma factor (do they wear them again here?), the Celtics’ guile despite playing just a 6.5 man rotation in Game 5, down 11-0 to start the game (40+ min for Pierce/KG is a concern), the fact that NBA Marketing executives have about potentially 5-7% of their yearly sales riding on a Boston/NY Game 7 (esp with THIS storyline), and the fact that a Boston team has kind of done this to a New York team before……

……+2 is a great play.

The final kicker? There have been 11 times an NBA team down 3-0, has won the next two games. Every time that a Game 6 was played at the team’s home court……the home team has won. That goes for teams who were ahead OR behind in the series.

Coincidentally, Houston also is hosting a Game 6 (HOU -1), despite being down 3-0, now 3-2, vs an Westbrook-less OKC.

Mathematically, the streak will have to be broken. It can’t go on for infinity, it’s not a Derby**, and it rarely happens…so odds are 1 out of the two teams Friday will break it (although for those keeping with the math, a parlay with Boston and Houston line is +264).

Why not Houston?

OKC has Durant…and the Knicks do not.

*He was right (and also another reason I bet the C’s in game 6 of that series using this logic….the Lakers had clinched the night before to the Finals, and wouldn’t you know it….two quick fouls on Howard in the 1st quarter of Game 6!).

** Kentucky Derby pick this weekend: Itsmyluckyday (12/1)…just because it looks like an online poker name