Lou’s 2012 MLB Over Unders
Excuses Reasoning to follow…or not. Again this is confidence pool scoring, so 10 is the highest confidence and 1 is the lowest. Winner between Pat and myself gets a pub crawl all expenses paid. Last season Pat and I both did horribly. I believe I went 4 for 10 and Pat went 3 for 10. I managed to hit on three of my top five to give myself at least some respectability. Like the NFL season win totals, which I am admittedly much better at, my picks lean towards the under because betting on failure is always more fun than betting on success. Plus the number of available wins in Pat’s posted list is 2447 which is 17 more than the total number of wins available in a season (minus the play-in game to the play-in game to the play-in game et al).
10) Toronto Blue Jays Over 80.5
The Blue Jays are up to 83 wins on Pinnacle. That’s generally enough for me as Pinnacle rarely moves their lines without an excellent reason. Very hot and unsustainable spring by the Blue Jays who should have enough talent and organizational depth to get to .500
9) LA Dodgers Under 81
I’ll let someone more qualified at writing explain this one:
Still, you can be an above-.500 team with two superstars and a cast of decent role players. The problem is general manager Ned Colletti hasn’t shown he can find competent role players at bargain prices, the way so many smaller-budget teams have. Colletti scanned the free-agent landscape and decided that the best bet to play left field was Juan Rivera, a mediocre hitter (.314 and .308 wOBAs in 2010 and 2011) who’s generated just over 1 Win Above Replacement over the past two seasons, wasting about 1,000 plate appearances to get there. At least Rivera’s only going to eat $4 million and a club option to play poorly and block Jerry Sands (a rare homegrown player with some pop) from playing time. Juan Uribe had a career year at age 32 with the 2010 Giants, convincing Colletti that a career stuffed with injury problems and a complete misunderstanding of the strike zone wasn’t as important as whatever happened 10 minutes ago. Uribe’s now in year two of a three-year, $21 million deal, slated to be the Dodgers’ starting third baseman this year after hitting .204 with four homers in the 77 games he didn’t miss in 2011. On the plus side, 2012 could bring the Dodgers another Cy Young, an MVP award, and the league lead for crummy, overpaid starters named Juan.
8) Baltimore Orioles Under 70.5
Fun fact: The Orioles have not exceeded 70 wins since 2005.
7) St. Louis Cardinals Over 86.5
The Cardinals replace Pujols with Beltran and get Adam Wainwright back with a largely unchanged roster otherwise. I have a large bet on this one at 84.
6) Kansas City Under 76.5
Their starting pitching is currently awful. Not as bad as the Orioles but awful. The bullpen is good and the hitting is getting there but 77 wins is a big ask. Fun fact: The Royals have won more than 77 games once in the last 20 seasons.
5) Oakland A’s Over 72
I mistakenly left Oakland off my list in the original posting. The projection systems like Oakland for 76 wins and so do I. Last 5 seasons: 76, 75, 75, 81, 74 NL West for interleague
4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays Over 86.5
I have no good reasoning for this pick other than since the Rays got good they tend to beat their number by a few wins a season. I think I picked them last year.
3) Detroit Tigers Under 90.5
600 LB of corner infield. That’s really all I have as they are going to score a lot of runs.
2) Miami Fish Under 85.5
The Marlins weren’t particularly good last season and the division is more difficult than any besides the AL East, who Miami faces in interleague. If everything goes right (Johnson, Ramirez, bullpen) they will cruise past this number, but it is a long season and Jose Reyes is unlikely to play all of it.
1) Pittsburgh Pirates Under 73
This would be much higher on the list if the Astros and Cubs were not in their division.
Lastly, just for fun…
-20) Chicago Cubs 74.5 I cannot envision a better line for this team than 74.5. Reliably below average with few prospects for immediate improvement, yet the bet cannot push! Good seats still available! The 2012 Chicago Cubs!
