2012 MLB Over/Unders
Shit the bed in this segment last year. Time to wash the sheets. Rules as always, pick over/unders for ten MLB teams. #10 pick is your high confidence pick and is worth 10 points. The stakes, a pub crawl. At the #10 spot this year…
#10 Pittsburgh Pirates (under 73) “Barmes is one of the worst regulars in baseball.” “Presley is somewhat lacking in terms of power and speed. He had a distressing platoon split…” “(McGehee)…coming off one of the worst seasons of any regular.” These are the player reviews for far too many Pirates, creating a starting lineup littered with players who would struggle to make most teams’ benches. Something to keep in mind that may or may not mean something, going into the night of the 19 inning blown call game vs. Atlanta they were 53-47. That means they finished last year at a 19-43 clip. Yucky.
#9 Toronto Blue Jays (over 80.5) I will tell you flat out the reason I now really like this pick. A night or two ago Lou noted some line movement since I posted over/under totals back in mid-March for this contest. Apparently Vegas has been back-pedaling big time with these guys. Original number = 80.5 with a ton of juice on the over. Current number = 83. Wow. And their bullpen looks filthy, if you are looking for some non-degenerate rationale to take the over.
#8 Los Angeles Dodgers (under 81) This is a bit difficult. The Dodgers roll out essentially the same team every year, and every year, with the recent exception of 2009, they finish smack dab around the .500 mark. Except in 2011 they needed three things to happen to get there, 1) their best hitter to have a career year 2) their best pitcher to have a career year 3) and the team as a whole to have a rather too successful 34-20 mark to finish the season. Matt Kemp went ahead and signed a Hamptonesque 8 year deal which means money is no longer a motivation. After him, this lineup is not good; the infield may rank among the least productive of any mid to major market team this year. The Mets proved last year that any rotation going into a season with Chris Capuano as a projected starter is not in the greatest of shape.
#7 Milwaukee Brewers (over 85) Losing Fielder is a bitch. But check this out. Remember that guy McGehee earlier in the Pitt pick? He was the Brewer starting 3B last year. This year it’s Aramis Ramirez. Remeber how Corey Hart missed the first month of the season to injury and still hit 26 home runs? Remeber how Greinke was injured as well and missed his first few starts? Remember how the Ryan Braun suspension got overturned and this number wouldn’t have been that crazy different if it hadn’t? Remember how the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates are horrible.
#6 Kansas City Royals (over 76.5) There is just the absolute slightest of half chances that the Royals actually win their division this year. Luke Hochevar had a very positive second half last season and while Danny Duffy struggled, his minor league numbers suggest a much better performance this year. Losing Soria is not ideal, but they have a very capable trio of Holland, Broxton, and Crow to lead the bullpen. Slightly terrifying that their success rests heavily on both Francoeur and Alex Gordon having consecutive impressive years.
#5 Philadelphia Phillies (under 93) Wanted to take the Marlin over, didn’t have the balls. Wanted to take the Nationals over, didn’t have the balls. So let’s do the next best thing and take this under. Now I tried this garbage last year twice, taking the W Sox over and Yankee under extensively based on the comparative strengths of their divisions. Result: 0-2. So here’s another argument, Hunter Pence may at this time be the best regular in this lineup, just sayin’. So pitching, Halladay is a 34 year old power pitcher, just sayin’. Maybe Cole Hamels starts going down Zito Avenue…The 2011 Giants are proof enough that great pitching alone is not enough at times, and if that great pitching morphs into solid pitching this team will struggle.
#4 Tampa Bay Rays (over 86.5) If this lineup was a bit more confidence inspiring this would be a top level pick. Then again, their over/under would be through the roof if this lineup was primo. Everyone knows the pitching staff should handle itself well. This is all about if the bats can hold their side of the bargain. I like their addition of Luke Scott to the lineup, a wrinkle that gives Maddon just an extra ounce of flexibility. If they add a power hitting middle infielder this number becomes virtually automatic IMO. Those keeping track, that’s 4 “ifs” for this pick, good thing only 3 picks left…
#3 Colorado Rockies (under 81.5) This just does not look like a .500 club. The rotation could be a disaster. “Speculate upon him in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, but don’t go overboard,” a quote from espn fantasy page on the team’s listed ace Chacin. #2 starter Guthrie – “his fly ball tendencies are a major concern at Coors Field…tread carefully.” #3 Pomeranz has 4 career starts and a plus 5 career era. The #4 starter Juan Nicasio fractured a neck vertebrae about 7 or 8 months ago and Jamie Moyer will turn a half century old by the end of the year. Suspect.
#2 Cleveland Indians (over 79.5) Justifying this pick on two rather tenuous concepts. I really like the back end of the Indian rotation with Tomlin/Gomez, and I like the youth movement led by the likes of Santana, Cabrera, and Kipnis, which should add excitement, energy, and skill to the club. So again, I am justifying this pick on young talent and back end pitching.
#1 Texas Rangers (over 91) The only mention I will make of the AL West. This seems like the safest bet of the bunch, though picking the Rangers to do well always has a slight “when is the roof going to collapse” feel to it. My confidence is bolstered by Mr. Met, Nolan Ryan working behind the scenes.
