When to Use Reverse Run Lines
A reverse (better known as alternate) run line is a bet that the listed underdog will or will not win the game by more than one run.
For example, tonight’s Pirates/Braves line is as follows:
Braves (Jurrjens) -120
Pirates (Morton) +113
The Run Line (or handicap or spread) is:
Braves -1.5 +146
Pirates +1.5 -158
Lastly, the Reverse (or Alternate) Run Line is:
Braves +1.5 -290
Pirates -1.5 +256
The two non-degenerate reasons for using the reverse run line are as follows:
1) Suspected (or known) injury to a starting pitcher
Phil Hughes is the classic and most recent example here. After all of the reports of Hughes’ velocity being down as well as being crushed by the Tigers in his first start, assuming you wanted to bet against Hughes in his next start, you may as well use the reverse run line (assuming the Yankees were still favored with him starting) as you can receive a much larger return. We are assuming here that an injured pitcher is much less likely to keep a game competitive and as such, the likelihood of a one-run game is diminished.
Of course, should you know for certain that said pitcher is injured and starting anyway (Hughes is probbably the closest one can get without legitimate inside knowledge) this is certainly the way to go.
A lesser version of this system would use this to bet against pitchers with inordinately high pitch counts in their previous start(s) again assuming those pitchers were still favored overall. There doesn’t seem to be much sense in laying lots of juice for a team to not lose by 2+ runs and in any case, there’s approximately zero money to be made betting on large favorites in MLB.
2) Overly favorable matchups
At the start of the year, Justin Masterson and Alexei Ogando for Cleveland and Texas respectively were considered good swingmen with established strengths and weaknesses that would likely get exposed as a regular starter. When given a particularly favorable matchup, pitchers such as these can be a good play sometimes as significant underdogs. This can also extend to pitchers back from injury, or recently called up from the minors. There’s little to no reason however, that making a game a play under the normal moneyline should by default extend to taking a game at a reverse run line instead.
Roughly 30% of MLB games are decided by one run so that’s the primary reason to not use these. Of those 30% of games, roughly 40% go to the underdog and 60% break to the favorite. Since there aren’t any of these that offer +1.5 +2xx, most people will be best served by leaving these alone minus the Hughes-like exceptions.
