Miracle Covers

Pat’s MLB Over/Unders

Let’s get into it. The contest is to pick 10 teams against the Vegas over/under totals.  The #10 is your top confidence pick, with #1 your shakiest.  Without further ado…

10)  Chicago White Sox (over 85.5)  –  This pick is more an indication of my disregard for the competition in the AL Central than with the White Sox, though they themselves certainly seem to have a good thing going this year.  Adam Dunn obviously is a big acquisition.  John Danks is their listed 3rd, but at an age where another year will only help him, he could turn into a legit #2 during the course of the season.  And that depth enables them to have Edwin Jackson towards the back end of the rotation where he probably belongs at this point until he consistently proves himself.  Similar thoughts on Mark Teahen, great extra OF, IF guy coming off the bench, or more accurately, just not starting.

9)  Boston (over 95)  –  Red Sox won 89 games last year while suffering an avalanche of injuries.  They add Adrian and Crawford, which will more than compensate for the loss of Beltre.  Patently explosive offense, and the pitching should be good-borderline-spectacular in stretches throughout the year.  This is the team the Yankees used to be when they were dominating baseball in the late 90s, early 2000s.

8)  Baltimore (over 76)  –  The O’s are a team a lot of people are hot on after years of meteoric mediocrity.  They remind me of the Cincy Reds going into last year.  Lots of subdued but persistent talk and expectations in the background.  If Adam Jones has a real break-out season, and Derek Lee and Justin Duchscherer (The Duchsch) stay healthy, they should clear this number.  Definitely helped by weaker Yanks and Rays teams.

7)  Kansas City (under 69.5)  –  I don’t love this pick, any time you are picking a professional team to win less than 70 games you are on suspect ground IMO.  But Kansas City failed to clear this number last year when they had Zack.  Instead they go into the season with #1 pitcher Jeff Francis, or as espn describes him, “a sleeper starter in AL-only (fantasy) leagues.”  Yikes.  As a side note, at this exact moment in time, espn has Melky Cabrera listed as Kansas City’s Opening Day center and right fielder, which cannot be good for business.

6)  San Diego (under 76.5)  –  Wow.  That lineup…goodness.  Their centerpiece is Ryan Ludwick.  Soon to be 33, career 104 HRs, Ryan Ludwick.  This team had the 28th rated slugging percentage in the league with Adrian Gonzalez.  Obviously not a hitter’s park, but did they play all their games there last year?

5)  NY Yankees (under 91.5)  –  Don’t like that this means I’m betting on the Yanks to essentially finish with a win total in the 80s.  Ehhhh.   But Pettite is gone, and if you don’t think that makes a difference you are nuts.  I was just about to write how the back end of their rotation is a disaster with Burnett and Garcia only to click on their depth chart to see that Burnett is the listed #2.  Burnett cannot be as bad this year as last, but that is far from a rave endorsement.  In addition, the Yankees do not have their typical 1-7 lineup of ridiculousness.  They have three hitters that scare you and a whole lot of OK after that.  And the AL East is stronger at the bottom this year.

4)  Houston (over 71.5)  –  I actually started this thinking of taking the under.  But this number is just a little too low.  Some people might say, ‘well, they sucked last year, and now they don’t have Oswalt.’  But it is the Astros horrifying offense that is the issue, not the pitching.  And this is what the argument boils down to.  No matter how disastrous (just learned how to spell that) the hitting can and will be at times for Houston this year, this rotation just isn’t the type that leads a team to 60 something wins, as a unit they are too good for that.  And it should be noted that no matter how anemic the Astros offense has been over the last few years, they never dropped below 73 wins.  Let’s go over.

3)  Arizona (under 72.5)  –  As in essentially every bet, it would be great if this number was a little different.  Aaron Heilman excluded, Joe Saunders is the wily veteran among the starting pitchers and he isn’t 30 yet, which means this group is dominated by potential.  Their numbers 1, 3, and 4 starters do not have a combined 50 decisions in the majors (49) by my count.  At 3B, Melvin Mora is 39, assuming Venezuela doesn’t have those birth certificate problems baseball seems to like, and he somehow managed to hit only 7 HRs last year playing 113 games for Colorado.  Still, as noted, they are young and potentially talented in a lot of places, would love this at 76.

2)  Cincinnati (over 84.5)  –  Last year, got lucky with these guys taking the over simply because of the enormous amount of chatter that was surrounding them.  So what the hey, let’s take them again.  And this pick is based almost entirely on the Reds offensive potential.  They have five players with easy 20+ HR pop and that is not including Scott Rolen, who hit 20 himself last year.  Their division is certainly not the strongest thing going.  The Cards number is 84.5 also, this is essentially a vote for a St Louis under.

1)  Oakland (over 83.5)  –  Where the Cincy pick comes down to offense, this comes down to the idea that, when healthy, the A’s probably have the best pitching in the AL West.  They certainly do not have the best hitting, but they did add Matsui, and I think a huge X factor this year is 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (pretty sure it is a contract year, 29 years old).  If the Angels pitching was even fractionally better I’d have them here, but it isn’t.